The banks now have new standards of creditworthiness. This Sunday, the central bankers and regulators met in Basel (Switzerland) have reached agreement on financial sector reform, designed to make institutions more resilient to future crises.
This will reassure the financial world. Already this morning, Asian stock markets welcomed the progress and the details given by the Committee to reach a global banking system stronger.
In Europe, stock markets should benefit from this renewed confidence in the markets, like the euro, which is increasing by nearly 1% in morning trading against the dollar, and exceeds $ 1.28. The CAC 40 is thus expected to rise Monday morning, as the Dax in Frankfurt and the FTSE in London.
Few indicators on Monday
In France, the balance of payments in July will be announced at 8:45 by the Banque de France.For the euro area, industrial production for the same month will be the only major indicator to follow at 11 am.
In Vienna, will meet until 17 September the Council of 35 Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). And at noon, the meeting will be held bi-monthly Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
United States, the figures of budget execution will be available in August at 20 o'clock.
The bank on the radar screens
With the agreement in Basel and confidence in the banking system invigorated by the news, financials should be acclaimed the gong to open the Paris Bourse. To follow, therefore, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Dexia, Credit Agricole, Axa and Natixis.
But the movement could not continue.European banks have suffered in recent days doubts about the credibility of the stress tests carried out before the summer, and considered too easy to "pass". The Wall Street Journal drives the point in holding more than 1.9 trillion euros of public debts European banks. In an editorial, the Financial Times also highlights the continuing fragility of the banking sector in Europe.
In addition, banks themselves should not enjoy the new standards imposed, which should lead to tremendous fundraising, according to them. These measures could well lead some banks to launch capital increase to strengthen their balance sheets.This is particularly the case of the first German bank, Deutsche Bank, which confirmed on Sunday that it would increase its capital by at least 9.8 billion euros including increasing its equity.
The automotive sector with a view
Oil stocks should also be colored black while gold continues to rise. On Friday, oil prices surged in New York after the closure of a major Canadian pipeline carrying crude to the U.S., a barrel of benchmark climbed almost 3%. And in Asian trade this morning, oil rises again from 0.93% to 77.16 dollars.
Peugeot and Renault have been surrounded last Friday, following the announcement of early repayment to the state a loan of one billion euros each.Renault should still be followed, since the group intends to sell its stake in Swedish truck manufacturer Volvo, said Chief Operating Officer Patrick Pelata in an interview published Saturday by the weekly Wirtschaftswoche. The officer gave no indication on the price of such a transaction. Renault is Volvo's largest shareholder with a stake of 20.7%, currently valued around 2.2 billion euros.
The founder of Meetic could disengage
The founder of the first European site dating Meetic intends to sell its shares. Marc Simoncini, who still holds 22.98% stake in his company and the company matches Pegasus, owner of 26.72% stake, have appointed investment bank Messier Partner a common mandate "to assess all strategic options. "
In the field of reinsurance, Scor is "more optimistic" than its competitors in the current reinsurance market, according to Victor Peignet, CEO of the non-life group, alongside the Rendezvous in September Monaco. For his part, Munich Re aims to develop an offer coverage to oil platform disaster to compensate the damage caused up to 20 billion dollars.
The only publication of interim results of the day will be made this evening after the close of trading by VM Matériaux.
New relapse or recovery? That is the question that all economic and financial players to pose for the United States. For if the crisis is usually born overseas, is also in this country that it ends there. But it is clear that, against a backdrop of unemployment and high budget deficits, the economy of the world's greatest power is slow to start. The president of the U.S. central bank, Ben Bernanke, was himself molested, last Wednesday, the pace of U.S. economic recovery. "There is a profusion of signs of a slowdown compared to previous periods," he said.
As a result, financial markets, both American, Asian and European indexes, and worry about struggling to forge ahead.The Dow Jones displays a small increase of 0.33% since the beginning of the year, the Nikkei lost 12.30%, the CAC 40 fell 5.35%, the FTSE 100 rose 1.64% and the German Dax 4.32% catfish.
"The United States has more cartridges"
A situation that grows more and more economists to predict the worst for the United States. Exaggerated pessimism or realism true? Anyway, among these experts, there is Nouriel Roubini, the leader of this movement. The very one who saw it coming the chaos of the crisis of subprime mortgages, the famous subprime. "The United States has exhausted all their cartridges, and the slightest shock at this stage can tip into recession," he said on Sept. 3 at an economic forum in Italy.
It is true that the U.S. does accentuating have much leeway as a monetary policy – interest rates of the ECB are at their lowest – and budget. And even if Barack Obama President of the United States has launched a new stimulus package of 50 billion dollars to support the U.S. economy. Dessertine Philippe, Director of the Institute of High Finance, recalls: "States will no longer have the means to recover from a second" Lehman Brothers ".
To hyperinflation
Other economists maintain less media visions even black.Laurence Kotlikoff, a professor at Boston University who warned since 1980 about the dangers of deficit, paints a scenario that some people never imagined, "a trade dispute between the U.S. and China, pushing them to liquidate its debt of U.S. Treasury debt, which would lead to massive outflows of money from the U.S. and the injection of huge amounts of money by the central bank in the U.S. financial system. " Ultimately, the U.S. economy would be struck down by hyperinflation.
In a letter to the G20 countries, these economists are expecting a new housing crisis in the United metastable with "disproportionate loss" for small and medium sized banks, which "could precipitate a loss of market confidence in the recovery .
Will they be heard? Anyway, the Americans take very seriously this scenario.According to a survey published by the Institute StrategyOne Friday, it is 65% suggests a new recession. And in the longer term, the idea that the U.S. is "in decline" seems firmly entrenched.
David Brooks, columnist for the New York Times, the U.S. is losing its supremacy as Great Britain a century ago. "The current economic problems are structural. The evils of the labor market are deep and incurable. The rebound in the U.S. is not in the woods. The atmosphere might be cold next week on financial markets.
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"The slowdown is more pronounced
Cotton prices are in turmoil. While climatic factors threaten stocks, discussions on future crops are launched. Between two discussions, one word keeps coming: Bollgard. This is the full name of Bt cotton, the genetically modified cotton, marketed by Monsanto since 1996. This includes bacteria that produce toxins against the deadly caterpillar moths and weevils capsules.
Bt specifically eliminates these insects that attack plant capsules. It thus reduces the losses on a plantation. Coupled with lower production costs due to lower pesticide use, the argument has already won nine countries: the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Australia, Mexico, Colombia, India, Brazil and China.The cultivation of Bt cotton in 2009 and accounted for nearly half of the 33 million hectares dedicated to this crop in the world.
In the U.S., for 88% of the cotton area is devoted to him. The Chinese world's top producer, he provided 70% of its acreage. In India, cotton occupies 90% of the area as in Pakistan. In Africa as the "Bt" is gaining ground. In Burkina Faso, one quarter of the 115,000 hectares sown allocated to it and the country intends to expand production to 475,000 hectares with an expected gain of 100 million dollars this year.
Perverse
During the first years of its use, Bt cotton generated much enthusiasm on the part of observers. INRA in 2001 suggested an increase in yield of up to 80% for a 70% reduction of pesticide application.United States, a study by the National Cotton, dating back to 2000, reported an economic benefit of $ 50 per acre for the cultivation of Bt cotton
Ten years later publications show more distrust. "The effectiveness of Bt cotton is no longer sufficient," says Michel Fok, a CIRAD researcher, in a study published last July. Bt has had the perverse effect of open fields to new generations of insects more resistant. Caterpillars, spiders, bugs are multiplying and the sophistication of GM seeds to deal with these threats payday advance dramatically raised prices.
The seeds have become four times more expensive than conventional seeds, $ 85 per acre in 2009 against $ 20 in 2005. The market was flooded by Monsanto, does not offer many choices for farmers. 'Bt is a short term solution.Its use becomes a vicious circle of indebtedness for the farmer, "says Jeremy Tager, GM campaigner for Greenpeace.
The issue is environmental. The products used to treat these threats are accused of depleting the soil. "The change was not clearly anticipated but it now operates in China and the United States to such an extent that the need to chemically control may threaten the continued production," concluded researchers at a conference on GMOs in Australia in 2009.
New GM at the horizon
Last March, for the first time in its history, Monsanto recognized a failure to meet these larvae. Having offered to farmers to use Bollguard 2, the firm will soon market the third generation, Bollguard 3. Other companies are following suit in the image of Bayer TwinLink with cotton or Syngenta."These new GM does not guarantee higher returns. They accelerate the vicious cycle. This system supports a model of intensive agriculture instead of a subsidized farming. The situation is extremely worrying, "says Greenpeace advocates finding a" balance "in research on crop improvement.
"With all of this, the appropriateness of a return to the cultivation of conventional cotton, to a degree not explained, is mentioned. There is already a reality in 2009, there have been 400,000 acres (a total area of 8.9 million cotton acres) and an area of 1.5 million acres is predicted 2010, "concludes Michel Fok for his part, CIRAD.
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On the one hand, a sluggish recovery and unemployment does not decrease. On the other hand, companies sitting on a mountain of cash of 1.84 trillion dollars. To solve this equation, Barack Obama wants to encourage businesses to invest to boost jobs and growth. It is expected to announce on Wednesday a 200 billion tax relief for firms investing in industrial equipment.
This measure complements the newly introduced Obama after the presentation of a program of infrastructure investment of 50 billion dollars on Monday presented and oriented employment. The American president wants to show its willingness to revive the economy as the election looming mid-term November.
Marginal effect
"Obama wants to ensure that the investment is not sinking like a bellows with the expiration of the first battery of measures of raises," said Florence Pisani, an economist at Dexia AM. The investment has rebounded strongly in the first and second quarters, jumping by 20 or 25%. But it remains at levels well below those before the crisis, and economists expect it to slow down.
Economists are divided, however, the effectiveness of the measure on the investment. The federation believes that SMEs could, ultimately, help companies "at the margin," reports the Wall Street Journal. The level of capital spending by SMEs are at their lowest for 35 years, business leaders should take advantage of tax breaks to loosen their purse strings, the newspaper said.
Demand problem
Problem, "companies will not invest only to take advantage of the tax measure, they must observe and anticipate an increased demand for it," recalls Florence Pisani. They may well wait until the last moment, that is to say late 2011, to appeal to tax exemptions, until the maximum uncertainty dissipate growth, say analysts at Goldman Sachs. Boring for the Obama administration wants to boost the economy immediately.
Still, the measure to 200 billion may never pass the dam of Republicans in Congress. The conservative Senators leave nothing to pass to Obama, a few weeks they have elections to win. They also believe that these two new measures amount to recognize the ineffectiveness of the stimulus plan of 787 billion voted in February 2009.
In Brussels
The worst is past, but hold the debt crisis remains on the radar. While the EU finance ministers met in Brussels since Monday for their meetings back, the markets continue to worry about any difficulties on the obligations of "peripheral" countries, considered the weakest in the euro zone, where rates continue to move away from those of Germany, the most creditworthy borrowers in the euro zone, according to the markets.
A time overshadowed by the rescue of Greece, sovereign risk has returned in the markets at the heart of the summer with the degradation of the controversial memorandum of Ireland by Standard & Poor's. The rating agency was concerned about the fly away cost of bailing out banks.On Monday, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, has acknowledged that his government might be forced to undertake costly liquidation of the Anglo Bank Irisjh if Brussels rejects the announced restructuring plan. As a result, the yield gap between Irish and German bonds to ten years rose Monday 2 basis points to 342 points.
Ireland is not the only point of concern. Greece remains outstanding, to the extent that Pimco analyst warned Monday against a risk "significant" fault after European rescue plan. The rate differential with Germany reached 906 points Monday. Spain and Portugal are also seen as weak links.
Hungary followed closely
"The Eurogroup should really pay attention to what is happening in the market for sovereign debt," said Padhraic Garvey, ING Capital Markets, who said "the quarter that just looks rather delicate.The analyst is concerned not to see "no sign that investors buy massive debt of countries in the periphery." It is not a retelling of the Greek case, and the most likely scenario is that these countries can be refinanced. But "what we say spreads today, there is always concern about the markets. And ultimately, it is the viability of the Union it is a question, "he adds.
By November, the euro zone countries will seek to raise between 70 and 80 billion euros every month, against 43 billion in August, according to figures from ING. Germany, Italy and France topped the list of funding needs, but Spain will also have to greatly increase its emissions (7 billion).
The situation in Hungary, although not part of the euro area is also monitored.The country had been under surveillance by Moody's in July after having suspended its negotiations with IMF and the European Union. The subject is not officially on the agenda of the Eurogroup of this afternoon. But "it is not impossible that some ministers in the corridors are surprised by the Hungarian position," says a diplomat. "An explanation would be welcome. 'History reassure investors about the general adherence to fiscal rectitude.
The U.S. equity market, which watched the unemployment figures for the month of August, one statistics most anticipated by the market, have been relieved. In the first exchanges, the Dow Jones gained 0.96% and the Nasdaq 1.25%, gains made over the clues that confirm the closure. Thus the final bell that marks the end of the formal meeting, the DJIA gained 1.24% or 127.83 points to 10,448.93 points while the Standard & Poor's 500 took 1.32% or 14.40 points to 1104.50 points. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite was awarded 33.74 points or 1.53%, to 2233.75 points. For the week, the Dow gained 2.9%, the S & P 3.8% and Nasdaq 3.7%.
Dollar takes off against the yen
On Thursday, U.S. markets have ended in the green on the wire.At the close, the Dow Jones advanced 0.49% to 10,320.10 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.06% to 2200.01 points while the S & P has won 0.91% in 1090 10 points. Prudent after Wednesday's rally, investors have finally acknowledged the unexpected rebound promises logements.Sur selling the foreign exchange market, the dollar surged Friday against the yen just after the publication of the monthly U.S. employment , better than expected by analysts, but the trend of the greenback remained uncertain against the euro. Around 24:50 GMT, the dollar was worth 85.17 yen 84.30 yen against Thursday about 2100 GMT.Traders were reluctant, however, on how to behave on the pair euro-dollar: the greenback was first flown in front of the single European currency to clear almost instantly his movement and return to its pre-publication report around 1.2840 dollars per euro online payday loans.
HP and BP monitor
On the side of values, the world's number one computer, Hewlett-Packard (HP) has awarded the California manufacturer of storage systems 3PAR $ 2.4 billion after a bidding war with its rival Dell, which has thrown in the towel Thursday. HP gained 1.74% to 40.37 dollars while its rival Dell wins 1.78% to 12.58 dollars.
The BP Group, listed on Wall Street, said that the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has cost eight billion dollars.The group withdrew Thursday vast funnel that had been able to stop in mid-July oil spill in charge of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, a key step before a final order of the well, said a U.S. official. The BP is assessed as 2.27% to 37.39 dollars.
Expected for several months, the competing tablets iPad were presented at the IFA electronics show the general public in Berlin. Archos The French had taken the lead in introducing a new range of five tablets. The way Apple is surrounded and earns 2.62% to 258.77 dollars.
Also note, the Wall Street Journal, the Treasury of the United States debates the number of foreign investors would be entitled to subscribe for the reintroduction of General Motors stock.
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After all closed in the red on Tuesday, the measures announced by the Bank of Japan and Nippon Monday the government had not convinced the financial markets, Asian stock markets ahead leave Wednesday, but with some caution. Thus, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong ahead of 0.36% to 20,609.74 points and the Stock Exchange of China shows a small increase of 0.12% to 2906.64 points.
However, the rebound is more pronounced for the other Asian indices: the Nikkei 225 gained 0.90% to 8903.90 points. Sales of new vehicles rose by 46.7% in August year on year to 290,789 copies, according to figures from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association.
Moreover, Taiwan rose 0.51% to 7655 points, the Bank of Korea is strong revival, from 1.24% to 3709.66 points, the Bombay Stock Exchange was up 0.75% to 18,106 , 69 points, as from Singapore to 2972.17 points.
The Sydney Stock Exchange boosted by growth in Australia
But the largest increase is to the credit of the Australian Stock Exchange: 1.93% to 4489.10 points. The Australian economy grew by 1.2% in the second quarter 2010, or 3.3% over the last twelve months, according to figures released by the Bureau of Statistics. These figures are well above forecasts of analysts who had forecast a gross domestic product growth of 0.9% in the quarter ended in June and 2.8% in one year.
The yen slows its progression
On the currency markets, the euro is rising again against the yen (0.56% to 107.19 yen). Just as the dollar gained 0.32% to 84.36 yen.Suddenly, the export values evolve in an uncoordinated Honda earns 0.5% to 2793 yen and Canon rose 0.73% to 3450 yen, but Toyota lost 0.66% to 2841 yen and Sony dropped by 0.12% at 2365 yen.
Crude prices were up Wednesday in electronic trading in Asia, due to bargain hunting after losses the previous two days, dealers said.
In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery gained 18 cents to 72.10 dollars, while that of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery took 17 cents to 74.81 dollars.
