An oil "perfect price"

Why change anything when everything goes well? A $ 80 barrel of oil, "There is good demand, offering reliable, the perfect price," assured the Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi, also leader of Saudi Arabia in OPEC (Organization of Exporting Countries oil), on his arrival in Vienna, which is held on Wednesday a ministerial meeting.

In a market held in equilibrium, the cartel members and interest to "leave things as they are, namely a level of production quotas of crude at 24.84 million barrels per day (bpd ). A figure that has remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, since 1 January 2009.

At the time, where the black gold was very different. During the winter of 2008-2009, the barrel (about 159 liters of oil) has d?grindol? nearly $ 30 after having flown over 140 dollars.Since early 2009, crude resumed colors to stabilize between 70 and 80 dollars – with minor flooding – since June 2009.

Compliance with quotas

Several ministers, however, claimed on arrival in Vienna a better respect of production quotas. A call to discipline and could be included in the final communique of the meeting, as stated by the head of the delegation, Shukri Ghanem.

According to the International Atomic Energy, the cartel produced 7.5% more than its official target. In February, the production of the eleven member countries subject to quota, excluding Iraq, reached 26.7 million barrels per day.

The OPEC members recall the persistent weakness of oil consumption, noting that the market was choked by excessive production, with stocks still too high.With economic recovery, demand will indeed grow and absorb the surplus.

Demand will grow

The representative of Saudi Arabia, a country that respects all of its quota of 8 million bpd, however, seemed to consider the issue of discipline was irrelevant.

"If there was no demand (for oil), there would be no exceedances" of allowances, said the Saudi leader of cartel expects that demand continues to grow , "especially from Asia. This increased demand will be particularly supported by China.

The global oil demand should increase by about one million barrels per day in the second half, according to him.

"OPEC could do very little" to align its quotas on its actual levels of production, and "it could even benefit from positive publicity if it took a measure encouraging economic recovery," but "it is d 'a cautious and conservative organization, which prefers to act behind the scenes, analysts concluded the firm JBC Energy in Vienna.

Changing course in September?

"I expect that prices remain quite well until the end of the year, despite the surplus production, thanks to" the recovery, the weakening U.S. dollar "and geopolitical uncertainties, said Algerian Oil Minister and Mines, Chakib Khelil.

While the outcome of Wednesday's meeting seems already set, expectations are already running to the next installment: the next meeting in September.Chabib Khelil said in effect to 50% probability is that OPEC's quota in six months.

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