6.8 to 9,500,000,000 more for Sarkozy's proposals

 

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

• Transfer taxes: 3.8 billion per year

Transfer taxes, a tax paid by households when buying their homes, would be halved in case of acquisition of the principal residence. According to the institute, this measure will generate a shortfall of 3.8 billion for counties and municipalities which are the current beneficiaries of the transfer taxes. It points to the difficulty of measurement (as distinguished primary residence and secondary). The entourage of Nicolas Sarkozy him figure the gross cost of the measure between 2.5 and 3 billion.

• Parental leave: 2.2 to 4,400,000,000 per year

The UMP candidate wants to relax parental leave. Its duration would remain up to three years, but it could be taken up until 18 years of the child, and not until he was 3. The cost of the measure is high but the range projected by the Institute of the company is large, the challenge is to anticipate changes in behavior: how many parents of children aged 3 to 18, with no " exhausted "their three years of parental leave, they will benefit from this new opportunity that will be offered.

• Unemployed older: 500 to 900 million annually

Nicolas Sarkozy promised the abolition of fees for hiring seniors in long-CDD or CDI of an unemployed person over 55 years, indefinitely. The encryption is based on an assumption of 35,000 beneficiaries per year (the team UMP is 50,000 to 60,000) and a reduced for 400 to 700 euros per month (higher than that chosen by the candidate's entourage).

• Contributions of craftsmen: 250 to 425 million

A craftsman is making any profit in the year 1700 euros to a demand of social contributions. The outgoing president wants to eliminate this floor to stick strictly to contributions proportional to income that is paid. The Enterprise Institute calculates a cost of between 250 million (corresponding to figure put forward by the applicant) and 425 million.

• Biometric Carte Vitale: 54 to 81 million euros per year

So far, the photo used on maps Vitale is simply sent by post. The additional cost, estimated at 15 euros per card, come from the need for staff to receive insured on site – in town halls, for example – check their identity and make their prints. It does not include a grant to the hundreds of thousands of health professionals so that they equip themselves with fingerprint readers (around 100 euros per enclosure).

• CIR: zero cost

Rather than being repaid after two years by the tax authorities, the research tax credit (CIR) would receive an advance by OSEO as a zero-interest loan "for small businesses that innovate ". An operation to "zero cost at cruising speed."

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The French poorly equipped to deal with disputes of everyday

 

The French are discouraged before they even take steps to resolve a dispute. It is thought that nine out of ten surveyed by Ipsos for the first edition of the barometer Axa legal protection. Justice remains an unknown for most of them: 80% do not know who to turn to know their rights, and 97% believe that the justice system is difficult to understand.

Worse, seven out of ten French think they have no financial means to defend themselves. Godsend for the legal protection insurers, which offer information in their contracts, and if necessary support – within limits – of legal fees. According to the Ministry of Justice, the cost of resolving a dispute is on average 200 euros for the costs of bailiff, 500 euros for an amicable and 1500 euros to cover attorney fees for a procedure .

Family, an area seldom covered by insurance

The French think that the main sources of conflict are employment, housing and the Internet. In fact, the most common disputes relate primarily to the housing (25%), led by neighborhood problems and relations between landlord and tenant, and Internet purchases (24%). Relations with the employer is not a priority (23%).

Numerous disputes also affect the field of family (divorce, inheritance …). But legal protection insurers rarely venture in this field. Axa Protection legal disputes of this nature are supported only if the client has signed the contract the more upscale, costing between 140 and 300 euros per year, much higher than a domestic contract classic (63 euros per year).

The insurer, like others, offers customers a hotline: a lawyer tells them about their rights and answered their questions. This service receives 175,000 calls a year. The insurer sees submit 36,000 new claims per year, most amicably resolved.

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Traders are worried and resigned

 

Traders are torn between fatalism and resignation. According to the ninth wave of the observatory shops conducted by Ifop for the retirement of independent mutual Medicis, 86% of traders are worried about the French economy. 70% are for the future of their trade. These figures are up sharply over 2009 and 2008.

Many find that a very real way the economic downturn. Observe a 43% drop in attendance of their stores. An increase of 9 percentage points compared to May 2011. Two out of five professionals interviewed explained that their revenue has fallen since January. 46% expect their turnover is stable.

Traders have a positive on various measures taken by Nicolas Sarkozy since the beginning of his term in April 2007. 77% qualify as "good" tax exemption for overtime, the 67% increase in the age of retirement. 61% favor the elimination of business tax. But they are only 51% to defend the introduction of VAT at 7% in restaurants. They are hostile against the increase of 1.6 percentage points of VAT. 62% feel it is a "bad thing".

Reduction of charges

Concerned about the future of small shops they fear of losing, traders are worried about their retirement and for their welfare. Little interest in the presidential election, they condemn the indifference of political leaders towards them. 81% feel that the candidates for president do not understand their professional concerns.

Almost one in three believes that candidates are not aware of the weight they represent in the French economy: France has 750,000 merchants employing 2 million people and generating 343 billion euros in turnover. Asked about their expectations, 73% required a reduction of charges. Specifically, almost one in two merchant would be they who lower employer costs. More than one in three plead for a lower wage costs. But they are only 23% want trade to be protected and promoted by measures. A minority (8%) asked for more financial aid from the government and banks to hire or grow. Only 4% consider it a priority the defense of "Made in France" or the taxation of imports in favor of French products.

Not surprisingly, Nicolas Sarkozy remains their preferred candidate. 37% say they would vote for him in the first round of the presidential election when they were 44% in the first round in 2007. Francois Hollande is second with 19%. It is followed by Marine Le Pen (18%) and Francois Bayrou (16%).

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Rising protectionism

 

The Chinese have hit hard. They decided to freeze orders 45 Airbus to protest against the carbon tax that the European Commission imposed from January 1 to all airlines flying over European airspace. Beijing remember vividly that he has very strong case when a trading partner dares challenge him. The Middle Kingdom also knows how to play the national preference. It requires six high-tech sectors to buy Chinese. China is not the only country to use every weapon at its disposal to defend its interests.

Other states willingly play the card of patriotism and protectionism. In the U.S., the Pentagon chose the U.S. in February 2011 at the expense of Airbus Boeing to equip 179 tanker aircraft. The battle, which has experienced tremendous twists, lasted ten years. In France, more than 180 MPs signed a petition in June 2011 calling Air France to equip Airbus, not Boeing.

Broader range of measures

A study by the consulting firm Roland Berger, the use of defensive protectionism is rising sharply. The G20 countries have taken defensive measures 122 between November 2010 and April 2011, against 54 between May 2010 and October 2010. The first concerned imports amounting to $ 77 billion. The second for $ 31 billion. They drew on a wide range of measures ranging from quotas to technical standards, sanitary and environmental, through administrative procedures, restricting access to public procurement, export restrictions. Countries can also go on the offensive by providing support to an industrial sector, export subsidies, antidumping action or increase tariffs.

Europe can be even more tempted to protect themselves, the trade deficit with China rose to 170 billion euros in 2010 and has lost 3.3 million manufacturing jobs between 2003 and 2009 when China created 56 million jobs in the industry during the same period.

Refusing the border closure, Roland Berger experts advocate that Europe plays the opening for several reasons. European countries can not ignore the markets of Brazil, India, China and Russia who represent 40% of global GDP in 2050. They have strong assets (qualified staff, quality of infrastructure) that enabled them to attract in 2009 twice as much foreign investment (216 billion euros) that the United States. Europe can count on champions entered in the top 3 worldwide in their sector, such as GDF Suez, LVMH, EADS, Bayer, Sanofi Aventis, Michelin, BASF, Volkswagen. But it must also be facilitated by the political will to resist threats. The standoff Airbus-carbon tax is a good test.

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Holland tempers on the surcharge to 75% for football players

 

Francois Hollande, who recently announced he would tax 75% had incomes in excess of one million euros, backtracked, while the football world presage an exodus of players. "It would be the death of French football", "would cost a billion euros to French football", "we would lose all TV rights", "It would involve the demotion of the French Ligue 1 in the second division European", etc..

The Socialist candidate, himself a football fan, surely does not expect that its proposal a week ago, for a number of French "symbolic", announces the end of the French favorite sport no fax payday loan. He who was above all the big heads and leaders of countries including those whose salaries "have no connection with the talent, intelligence or effort." And which boasted a "patriotic act" that "agreeing to pay an additional tax to rehabilitate the country."

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The coup de blues-former stars of mobile

 

The former stars of mobile phones, Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, RIM (BlackBerry) and even Microsoft have missed the turn of the smartphone. Can they still get back in the race? Their image is tarnished by this delay. BlackBerry and Nokia-Microsoft duo are the first victims. They are also penalized by the unattractiveness of their application stores. While Apple displays 550,000 applications in its App Store and Google 350,000, for its Android Market, RIM and Windows Phone as having between 10,000 and 50,000. In response, the Canadian has just effected a turnaround first. It is now possible to download applications on its Android tablet playbook. For its part, Microsoft relies on the arrival of its new Windows 8, dedicated to the convergence between tablet PC and smartphone finally manage to win in telephony. Telcos want the arrival of a third player to escape the duopoly Apple / Google. For now, these wishes are not sufficient to ensure a start to a fanfare Windows Phone. Specialists have to find many beautiful virtues, it has sold just over 1 million Lumia (the Windows Phone from Nokia) since their launch in mid-November no faxing payday loans. For Nokia, it's a matter of survival. For Microsoft, success becomes an obligation, in a world where smartphone sales surpassed those of PC.

Motorola bought by Google

"Ten years ago, consumers chose a terminal. Today, they opt first for an ecosystem, "said Pierre Peladeau, an analyst at Booz & Co. And for now, the choices are on Apple and Android. The brands of the 2000s fetish pay the price. Sony Ericsson, soon renamed Sony, seeking to revive the glory. The new product launches are expected to accelerate. For Motorola, the situation is more ambiguous. The former star of mobile telephony, inventor of the clamshell phone, was bought by Google in August. Motorola has released its new Razr Android without the benefit of exclusivity from Google. The latter should spare the susceptibility of its other clients, Samsung, LG and other HTC.

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Lefigaro.fr sign a record 8.8 million visitors

 

Lefigaro.fr is the first news site in France in January. The study Médiamétrie / NetRatings, it was viewed by over 8.8 million unique visitors a month. A hearing is always the historic site of Figaro to a million users of the follower.

Development, the second place, occupied by Orange in December, was conquered by the Nouvel Observateur. High of 7.7 million unique monthly visitors, the site of the weekly benefits from the integration of "pure player" Rue89, bought in December.

Launched in late January, the site of the Huffington Post has also brought new visitors to the World, which brought together a total of 7.3 million Internet users in January. The web offers daily evening was nevertheless made the steal third place from the site of Le Parisien / Today in France, with nearly 7.5 million unique visitors.

January has generally drawn the hearings of the press line up. Portals and aggregators of articles edited by tech giants have, themselves, not take advantage of the French appetite for news. Orange News was relegated to sixth place in the ranking with 6.7 million unique visitors, Yahoo! News is eighth with 5.4 million visitors, MSN News and Google News are respectively the 11th and 13th.

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Social VAT: Battle of figures on job creation

 

Dispute between experts around the social VAT. Valérie Pécresse, the budget minister, expects the measure to create 75,000 to 120,000 jobs. Nicole Bricq, the rapporteur of the PS budget to the Senate, believes that the decline in employer contributions, coupled with recovery of 19.6% to 21.2% VAT and the rise of the CSG on savings, will at best 30,000 jobs. And, at worst, destroy 40,000. The Senator had to defend its position in the Senate Wednesday night, when reviewing the draft supplementary budget including introducing VAT and social tax on financial transactions. A review which promised rapid, left, majority, having decided to reject the text of a block rather than amend the clause by clause.

To achieve these numbers, Nicole Bricq reasoning in two steps. She said the VAT increase will cause a price increase of 0.5% to 0.7%. This additional inflation weigh on consumer spending, resulting in the destruction of 120,000 positions. Meanwhile, the decline in employer contributions will create between 80,000 and 150,000 jobs. Hence a total balance disappointing.

"The cuts decided by the Government target salaries between 1.6 and 2.1 minimum wage, so skilled workers. Companies hire these workers when they need their expertise. The issue of cost is secondary. As a result, reductions have little incentive effect on the hiring decision, "Nicole Bricq reasons. She said it was to hire unskilled workers that cuts costs may have a strong effect.

A Keynesian model dated

At Bercy, an estimated economic models selected in previous official reports, listed by Nicole Bricq, are based on reasoning "Keynesian" obsolete, making the consumer the only engine of growth possible. The government counters that it is precisely to encourage competitiveness and thus growth in exports.

The executive wanted to target anyway wages very practiced in the industry, in order to reduce labor costs. Nicole Bricq replied that the loss of competitiveness of French industry does not come from labor costs but an innovation problem. That's why she regrets that the capital budget for the future, focusing on research, has been punctured billion to mount the store industry.

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Kingfisher Airlines cancels more flights

 

"The King of good times," the king of good times, has become "The King of bad times," joked Monday the Indian press, referring to Vijay Mallya, the baron of Indian beer and whiskey. This is the slogan of an unfailing optimism that the flamboyant businessman was created in 2005, Kingfisher Airlines. The company is based in Bangalore, in southern India, which is native Vijay Mallya.

Today, Kingfisher through an unprecedented financial crisis. A nightmare, even for users. Saturday, the company has canceled 32 flights on the 240 it is supposed to operate daily. Same, or almost, Sunday and Monday. And the situation is not likely to improve, analysts believe.

Last week, Kingfisher announced a loss of $ 88 million in the third quarter of its fiscal year, almost double the deficit in the previous quarter.  

Earlier last year, the airline was forced to restructure its debt, and 25% of its capital is now 18 banks, led by National Bank State Bank of India (SBI). It refuses to bail Kingfisher as its CEO will not bring new money. Experts believe that to break the deadlock, Vijay Mallya is to find faster 400 to $ 500 million of capital.

Monday, Branch of Indian Civil Aviation (DGCA) has summoned officials of Kingfisher Airlines to demand an explanation of these untimely cancellations. "We received information on a large scale cancellations. They are obliged to inform us when they cut their flight plans. But they have not done, "said K. E. Bharat Bhushan, the head of the DGCA.

Unpaid wages

Passengers expressed their anger on social networks, including complaining of having been warned of flight cancellations at the last minute. A habit which Kingfisher has no exclusivity. State-owned Air India does not hesitate, it no longer, to bring its customers with a fait accompli

.

Saturday, some employees walked out of Kingfisher, furious at not having received their salaries. The flight cancellations were even worse. Mallya sent an email to all staff. A message in which he expressed his "regret" and said "understand the implications of these back wages privacy" of its employees and said it would not close his company. Kingfisher is mostly losing all credibility with its most loyal customers. A vicious circle from which the company may not get out.

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Halal industry to meet Le Pen

 

Saturday accused by Marine Le Pen to slaughter according to halal "all meat" distributed in the Ile-de-France, industrialists defend themselves. President of the National Association of interprofessional Livestock and Meat (Interbev), interviewed by France Info, the judge charged the president of the National Front "absolutely false".

"In the Ile-de-France, a vast majority of meat is not slaughtered according to halal or kosher," which involves killing animals without stunning, ensures Dominique Langlois. "It may be that parts or pieces of meat from carcasses are slaughtered according to these rites, but that does not change the quality of meat and it does not change at all the qualities of the product," adds Will it.

For professionals in the meat, the charge of Marine Le Pen "is meant strictly political and did not match the reality of things." "It's a debate that can only be detrimental to both the meat industry to French and French production that does not need it," warned the president of Interbev.

The animal rights groups mobilized

This debate is not new. Last year, six associations have denounced the increasing proportion of animals slaughtered according to Jewish or Muslim rites. According to the Foundation Brigitte Bardot, who had made an investigation in slaughterhouses, more than 60% of sheep and goats, 28% of adult cattle and 43% of calves were then killed without stunning, but that consumers are warned.

In France, however, requires the slaughter, since a decree of 1964, the stunning of animals before killing, thereby mitigating their suffering. But European legislation provides an exemption, "when stunning is not compatible with the ritual prescriptions under the free exercise of religion same day payday loans."

Approval before waive stunning

Two bills were filed in late 2010, the Senate to the Assembly, without success, to obtain a specific labeling of meat slaughtered without stunning. "The consumer has the right to know what he eats. He has the right not to eat meat slaughtered in a ritual which does not believe him, "argued the UMP deputy Nicolas Dhuicq. A new amendment, introduced in September 2011, was also rejected.

On 29 December, a decree was published in the Official Journal, however, requiring 275 French slaughterhouses to obtain, on or after 1 July 2012, before an official authorization from the rule of stunning. "It does [may] be granted only to slaughterhouses in favor [...] of a registration system to verify that it is used to slaughter without stunning as a result of justifying the commercial orders, "said the Ministry of Culture.

Marine Le Pen wants to complain

The animal rights groups have expressed quite satisfied with this text. "Being able to justify a ritual slaughter is a specific order is important because, currently, most of the meat of this kind of slaughter is found in conventional circuits without any indication to consumers," recalled Christophe Marie, spokeswoman Brigitte Bardot Foundation.

Marine Le Pen was not in favor waiting for the entry into force of the decree. On the sidelines of the convention of his party, being held this weekend in Lille, it announced its intention to attack "a few major retail supermarkets in Ile-de-France for misrepresentation of the product." She said wanting to file a complaint with a civil order for a judge to be seized, which could lead to an investigation of several months.

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