Concerns about the post-bonus case

Placed on oxygen last year, European manufacturers have yet to most tipped in red. And 2010 looks even more complicated for them they will have to relearn how to breathe alone. Due to the cessation or reduction of premiums for scrap, which had supported at arm's key markets of the Old Continent, PSA Peugeot Citroën and anticipating a decline in European markets by 9% this year, a decline in Renault Ford 10% and a dip of 15%.

Good registrations in January and February (17.8% in France last month) "reflect only the orders taken in December, said Tuesday at the Geneva Motor Show, Carlos Ghosn CEO of Renault. The latter includes a decline in sales from the spring.

"We still expect a strong headwind in Germany and Europe in general," said his side Martin Winterkorn, head of Volkswagen.The German market, after taking off in 2009 with the premium snack, could lose more than one million cars this year. "Despite some positive economic indicators in some countries, consumer confidence, undermined by rising unemployment, is not sufficient to engage in buying a car, for its part says John Fleming, the owner Ford of Europe, which sees no strong recovery before 2011.

So, the price war is raging. "There is an increase in rebates charged, they are difficult market conditions, said John Fleming. We must find a balance between the gains in market share and promotional expenses realistic creditreport . The Spanish public debt has soared just over 60% of GDP in 2010 while in 2007 it accounted for only 36.2% of GDP.

Tuesday, Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008, believed that Spain was the main weakness in the euro area. To this the Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs, Elena Salgado, has responded Thursday by saying on the radio station La Cope: "The euro is a very strong and we continue to strengthen the currency.I see absolutely no risk for the euro area, "adding," there may be a lack of understanding about what the euro means for our economy. "

Another country in the euro area is also starting to worry, Portugal, again because of deteriorating public finances of the country. Besides the titles of Portuguese banks fell by 5 to 6% Thursday on the Lisbon Stock Exchange.

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United States: enrollment in unemployment at its lowest since September 2008

Good news on employment front in the United States. New entries in unemployment at its lowest since September 2008, to 452,000 in the week ended on December 18. This figure comes after two weeks of up and confirms the downward trend observed since late March in the United States.

Analysts do not expect a decline of this magnitude and had forecast about 470,000 new registrations. The total number of unemployed receiving benefits rose to 5.07 million, a decrease of 127,000 persons over the previous week.

The Department of Labor, which published the statistics, held relative to this development, stating that "this week in particular is extremely difficult to adjust for seasonal variations, because the raw numbers can be very different depending on the configuration calendar year. Clearly, the actual unemployment has probably not declined much.

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Towards a low wage growth in 2010

The period of wage negotiations between management and unions currently undertaking begins. For example, at Renault, a first meeting on the subject will be held in two days. The big trend? The wage freeze was imposed last year should not disappear but retreat. According to Mercer, 21% of executives would see their wages frozen in 2010 against 42% this year. And 22% of employees against 35% this year.

Difficult, however, to rule on an average amount of increase because firms pay that reference have a different view. According to Hewitt, the increases will reach 2.6% next year against 2.8% in 2009.Mercer is more optimistic and believes that the increases will be larger in 2010 (+2.8% for a manager in the sales) against 2% in 2009 for example.

However all agree that even if a stronger recovery, the increases will not recover the levels (+ 3.5 to 4%) effective in years of strong economic growth.

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"Uncertainty about wages in 2010

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