Financial markets now include in their forecasts scenarios of "extreme risk" in Europe. Among these include a breakdown of the single currency, an outflow of Greece to the euro, but also larger countries such as Italy or Spain. The widening of spreads between countries in the euro area shows a clear divide between North and South. France is in the middle, but it looks more and more dangerously on the side of vulnerable countries instant payday loan.
The current political developments in key countries of the South do not seem to reassure markets. The departure of Silvio Berlusconi and his replacement as head of government by Mario Monti has not calmed the markets doubt the ability of the new chief executive to impose Italian program of deficit reduction required by the European Commission .
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At the bedside of the euro area. The major world leaders meet for two days, Thursday and tomorrow in Cannes for a G20 summit which could be captured by the debt crisis. And the Greek problem.
Last night, hours before the summit, Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel put pressure on Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. It wants a referendum on the European rescue plan for his country. French and German leaders asked him an ultimatum: "the question to the Greek people come down to this: do you want it not to remain in the euro area?"
24:37: "Finally, the G20 officially begins, says Cyrille LACHEVRE, Special Envoy of Figaro in Cannes.Nicolas Sarkozy welcomes everyone while Europe, meeting in Council emergency continues to struggle online payday loans. "
24:18: "The EU treaties do not provide output in the euro area without leaving the European Union, the European Commission confirms the sidelines of the G20, about Greece. The only option on the table is that Greece is the euro. "
24:10: immediate response of the Secretary General of the Greek prime minister to the call of the deputies of the majority: George Papandreou "did not resign, will not resign."
24:09: The Greek Socialist MEPs propose a coalition government led by former Vice President of the European Central Bank Lucas Papademos, according to Reuters citing sources internal to PASOK, the socialist party majority
12:08: "The extraordinary summit between EU leaders continues.
The government wanted to know the outcome of EU summit Wednesday evening, presented as crucial for the future of the euro area, prior to revise downward its growth forecasts. Despite the success of the meeting of the seventeen member countries of the euro area, which found the night of Wednesday to Thursday an agreement to stem the crisis at the moment on the Old Continent, the head of state n has been recognized that the Thursday night: the economy would not be up to expectations next year.
Until then, Bercy expected a GDP growth of 1.75% in 2012. But since the beginning of summer, the situation has deteriorated considerably. "For the sake of seriousness, we decided to lower our forecast to 1% next year," said Nicolas Sarkozy, who is aligned and the assumption by our German neighbor.And, near the line thickness, on the average forecast of economists (0.9%).
To keep the deficit targets despite this deterioration – and this is the top priority – must be found "6-8000000000" euros in savings or additional tax revenue next year, said Chief of the state.
Nicolas Sarkozy has asked Prime Minister Francois Fillon, with Valérie Pécresse (Budget) and Baroin (Economics), floor of the copy. And this new austerity program will be announced "in ten days," just after the G20 which takes place in Cannes.
What is certain is that "we must spend less on operating and investment to support growth (…).But calling for a tax harmonization with Germany, the president did not rule out the idea of raising the reduced rate (set at 7% across the Rhine at home against 5.5%) or the introduction of an intermediate VAT rate (between 5.5% and 19.6%) for products now subject to a reduced rate (catering, building …)
It announces clearly no "social VAT" – renamed "VAT antidélocalisation" to the UMP – hypothesis was raised in the procession of the tracks in the study. He implicitly endorsed the idea but has returned to the next presidential debate "in a few months."
However, companies should be tapped. Address the tax differential between multinationals and SMEs is a carrier. It is almost assumed that the new austerity plan will include a surcharge of corporate tax targeted at large enterprises.
The new windfall tax on high incomes that night passed in the Assembly she will enhance the effectiveness of tax? In fact, the interplay of tax loopholes and the architecture of the tax still allows the wealthy to cancel their taxes. According to "the latest data, covering the tax paid this year as revenue in 2010," cited by Les Echos, nearly 5,000 high earners have completely cleared their taxes this year.
Thus, 4800 households taxed at the last tax bracket of 41% and thus have a taxable income of more than 70,830 euros have erased their income tax by the interplay of tax loopholes. 6497 they were last year.Meanwhile, more than 9,000 tax households have reduced their tax between 70% and 100%, according to the report on the 2012 budget Gilles Carrez quoted as saying.
In addition, the report finds that the member tax is proportionally lower in high-tax scale. Thus, households last year at the head of a benchmark tax income of more than 500,000 euros per share had a tax rate of 26% against 28.5% for those earning over 250,000 euros per unit cash advances pay day loan. The explanation is simple: the wealthy derive most of their income from capital is taxed less than income from wages.
The new tax on high incomes should correct these inequities. The tax households reporting between 250,000 and 500,000 euros will pay a tax of 3% and those reporting more than 500,000 of 4%.
But the very high income should continue to be taxed proportionately less.Liliane Bettencourt spends less than 15% of its income for tax purposes against nearly 30% on average for a living part of his work, recently castigated the PS deputy Pierre-Alain Mute. And on the other side of the Atlantic, Warren Buffett has built his own case as a symbol. The latter is crusading for the adoption of a tax on high incomes in the U.S. revealed to have paid $ 6.9 million in taxes, a rate of 17.4% of its taxable income.
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The opening of a new generation of "palaces" some months apart, Le Royal Monceau (opened October 18, 2010), Shangri-La (December 17, 2010) and Mandarin Oriental (28 June 2011), has changed as ever the small world of luxury hotels in Paris, forcing the oldest palaces in a serious challenge. In this new context, the Ritz is not alone in having to close for repairs.
Reportedly, Le Crillon, recently sold by Starwood Capital to one of the descendants of the Saudi royal family, plans to close in the second half of 2012, probably for a period of two years. Management has already attacked the facade and roof, but not inside. The idea is to keep the French style, classic 18th, upgrading the hotel, he in turn can officially claim the distinction of "palace", introduced in May by the government.The hotel has no spa, no pool. The technical installations and the rooms have aged. According to a close case, the amount of work would be between 70 and 100 million euros. Not far from the Place de Concorde, the Plaza is also preparing for months of work, avenue Montaigne. "The Plaza Athénée will start the work of great importance following the acquisition of three buildings adjacent to the hotel last year, says Le Figaro Francois Delahaye, his boss cash advance no fax. These projects are planned for the end of 2012.Among the possibilities, a closure is planned for five months, from November 2012. "
According to Gabriel Matar, director of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels France, the average price of a night in a palace of between 750 and 1000 euros, "defending his position became increasingly difficult as competition comes from both new entrants and old, who spend millions to keep the quality of their product. " For the record, the George V was completely renovated between 1997 and 1999. "Otherwise, it would be today as the Royal Monceau and The Prince of Wales prior to closing," said Gabriel Matar."We currently have the best average revenue per room in Paris and we did not want to raise our market share by newcomers!" Says François Delahaye.
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The Deposit and Consignment Office now holds precisely 5.002% stake in Club Méditerranée, against 2% previously. Crossed a threshold in the financial management of the Fund that the judge attractive share price Club Med (13.40 euros, representing a market capitalization of 404 million euros, down 13% since the beginning of the year).
But the strengthening of the CDC, regarding the Club Med, a symbolic value. Between the public institution and the flagship of the French tourism, relations have always been close. In 2009, when Club Med was jostled by Bernard Tapie and various takeover rumors, the Deposit had dam, committing to purchase if necessary to a capital increase, finally buckled from other investors.Today, with 5% of the round, the CDC is involved in the consolidation of the company led by Henri Giscard d'Estaing.
Strategy carried out in several stages. Last year, the highlight had been the arrival of the Chinese Fo Sun, also a partner in the Club in the Middle Kingdom. The Deposit and Management of Morocco, also an industrial partner, is also installed in the capital. The French Caisse des Depots, for which tourism is a strategic activity, also maintains links with the business club, which it funds such as the site of Valmorel.
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The Paris Bourse after opening down slightly, trying to make a step forward after a session that saw the CAC 40 fly over 2%. In the morning, the CAC 40 in advance of 0.62% to 3249 points in early trade. Investors do not follow the mood on Wall Street yesterday and Asian markets this morning. The latter found confidence to the rhythm of advertisements European leaders on a plan to end the crisis. They particularly appreciate the position of the European Commission yesterday called for an urgent recapitalization of the banks deal with the debt crisis. Remarks relayed by the Minister of Budget Précresse Valerie, who, like Berlin, says it is "a necessity". France is willing to inject even said herself of public money to support its banks if necessary.
This commitment reflects a shift in the euro area on the Greek case.The taboo of failure is no longer excluded. The President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso called for "decisive action on Greece" while German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said yesterday that the overall level of indebtedness of Greece should be reduced s' it reaches an unbearable level, "to provide better opportunities" in the country. The discount will have to accept that private investors in the second aid package to Greece adopted in July would be 39% if we used the current market prices to assess the risk profile of the country, instead of 21% estimated at the time, said yesterday an official of the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
New vote in Slovakia, the euro rises
Concerning the Relief Fund in the euro area (EFSF), which must be expanded to support the plan to end the crisis, Slovakia has promised another vote tonight or tomorrow.It should be positive this time because four opposition parties agreed to support the government in place, in exchange for early elections. These data give back to the euro insurance. The European currency found the threshold of $ 1.38 in morning trading.
Oil, however, is small decline: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery lost 86 cents to 84.71 dollars. Barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery yielded nine cents to 111.27 dollars for the last trading day of the deadline. The operators claim to be concerned before the publication of figures on weekly petroleum reserves in the United States.Another indicator to the American agenda: the weekly jobless claims, trade balance and budget.
Values to follow Banks and cyclic form
The cyclical stocks such as Alcatel (9.9% to 2.2 euros) and Vallourec (3.32% to 48.90 euros) and the banks in the image of Societe Generale (2.92% at 23 , 84 euros), Credit Agricole (2.61% to 7.75 euros) or BNP Paribas (2.50% to 36.23 euros) always lead upward.
Total (-0.98% to 36.20 euros)
The oil company has discovered gas and oil off the coast of Norway, announced this morning the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. According to preliminary estimates, this discovery is to be between 19 million and 101 million barrels.To dig the well that led to this discovery, Total was allied with Norway's Statoil, authorities said.
Carrefour plunged 4.16% to 17.17 euros
The group launched Thursday a new warning on its results in 2011, relying now on a decline in operating income between 15% and 20%, 15% instead of the planned end of August.
Lafarge (2.28% to 29.62 euros)
The French cement company announced an asset swap with the U.S. Martin Marietta, which it will transfer the aggregates quarries and concrete plants ready and asphalt, in exchange for aggregate quarries and distribution sites .
Casino (1.98% to 62.71 euros)
The retailer saw its organic growth slowed in the third quarter with declining sales of its hypermarkets in France, but the group has confirmed its objectives for 2011 include the strengthening of its market share in the Hexagon and improving margins at Franprix-Leader Price.
Areva (0.72% 22.49 euros)
The consortium of the French group and Germany's Siemens called the Finnish operator Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) to engage in the path of cooperation with the approach the final stages of construction of the EPR reactor Olkiluoto 3 (OL3). The final cost of the EPR should be 6.6 billion euros, according to the member Marc Goua responsible for a report on the accounts of the group. Areva has also been licensed by the U.S. authorities to enable it to construct and operate an enrichment plant in Idaho.Finally, the boss of the group, Luc Oursel, raised the possibility "to smooth or to shift some investments to reduce risk and improve (the) financial situation"
ArcelorMittal (-0.38% to 14.47 euros)
The group decided to shut down two blast furnaces located near Liège in particular because of the deteriorating global economic situation, the financial daily reported on Wednesday Belgian L'Echo, information later confirmed by the unions.
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The euro fell more than 7% over the month against the dollar. The European currency has just gone below the $ 1.33. This violent collapse is due to the political and financial unrest affecting the euro area. There is now a consensus among strategists providing a further correction. "The state of the market reflects the near certainty that Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to cut rates before the end of its mandate" in late October, said John Kicklighter, strategist at DailyFX, a subsidiary of the giant FXCM currency. "It could be that the repurchase of government bonds continues. If these scenarios are realized, this would be very bearish for the euro. "
The bell sound is little more optimistic in. The experts of the French subsidiary of the Danish bank focused their attention on the delays of politicians."Speeches are encouraging to reassure the markets a while but in the absence of concrete solutions, the downward trend should continue," they said in a note sent to clients. The same applies to the specialists of the broker, "no concrete steps have been taken and so it has not been made, the euro will continue to r suffered."
Repatriation of capital in dollars
With the strong underperformance of European markets, investors, especially American, have reduced the share of assets invested in European equities. The repatriation of capital cause lift the dollar against the euro.
The downward spiral is likely to continue in the fourth quarter. Earlier this year, Saxo Bank had made a bet of one euro to 1.15 dollar. This goal seemed absurd end of April (the euro now approaching $ 1.5) no longer is.In any case, the euro could be worth between 1.20 and $ 1.25 at the end of the year. In this zone, the euro would only return to its value in purchasing power parity further point out the experts. Some exporting companies that have had the good sense not to cover may already be rubbing their hands. This is the case in particular that benefits both an aircraft carrier cycle and a decline of the euro against the dollar.
It seems that the era of the strong euro against the dollar is behind us. For individuals, it is possible to speculate down on the euro-dollar by selling the currency pair in cash in a currency broker. It may also be wise to buy put options or put options due in March (for example). This strategy can multiply its earnings but does concern a limited part of a portfolio.The current movement is also favorable to purchases of dollar assets (U.S. real estate, stocks on Wall Street …).
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How long the French banks will they resist the attacks of which they are the target market? BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole is in the eye of the storm: their actions have lost between 50% and 55% of their value in three months! This distrust, more violent and against many of their European competitors has two main explanations. On the one hand, French banks are exposed to the vulnerable countries of Europe device (Greece, Spain, Italy …) they hold a large stock of debt of state and they often have subsidiaries. Moreover, their model "universal" makes them more dependent than the average market financing. However, funding has become, if not rare, at least very expensive.
In that context very high voltage, a parade could be a battle plan based on that 2008.The rumors for weeks on a recapitalization by the state of all French banks. The Sunday Journal Sunday evoked an injection of 10 or 15 billion euros. At its off the plane from Washington, the Minister of Economy, French Baroin furiously opposed to "the most categorical denial." Same reaction at the Elysee and the Bank of France. Such an operation would be "useless, or even against-productive," said a source familiar with the matter. For now, anyway, "banks do not want it, they are not in a logic of solidarity, but prefer to play their own cards." The "special case" of Franco-Belgian Dexia, in the words of the governor of the Banque de France, is the subject of specific thoughts.Started in late 2008, the restructuring could involve an alliance with Caisse des Depots et La Banque Postale in the field of financing local authorities (our editions of September 23), but without dismantling or modification of the shareholders, Dexia said.
Maintain and adapt
Rather than a recapitalization, institutions such as the authorities prefer to place a battle plan: take and adapt. Friday, Bloomberg TV, the governor of the Banque de France, Christian Noyer, reiterated his confidence in the strength of French institutions. However, it has raised its requirements: all French banks will have to comply, from 1 January 2013, new prudential regulations known as "Basel 3", that is to say six years ahead of schedule. The effort required is considerable.All things being equal, the transition to Basel 3 means a financial institution that it should, about four times its equity. In fact, banks will reduce the volume and level of risk of their assets and their businesses, so that the capitalization is less effort. The banked profits and payment of stock dividends must achieve the required level. For three years, the sector in France has already accumulated 50 billion euros of additional capital. The line of defense erected by the European Central Bank, whose windows are wide open cash to banks in the euro zone, is also a key element of the device.
"But we're not crazy," says a source familiar with the matter. The possibilities of slippage are many, starting with one that Greece would go bankrupt.Better to be prepared for any eventuality and have a plan B shares at any time, ideally in a European context. Tools that were used by the state in 2008 to recapitalize banks and guarantee their loans have not been dismantled, they can return to duty at any time.
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After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.
But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.
"Target needed '
Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years …
In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.
These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.
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