Air France-KLM is one of the biggest disappointments of this year the stock market. Title drop 59% since January 1. The strike, which lost, according to our calculations, about 10 million per day to the company, is only one element in a more negative balance very dark.
"There is no question that I invest in this action. There is no visibility. They mastered neither the personnel nor the cost of oil prices. They face strong competition from other companies, "said one portfolio manager bad credit payday advance. This opinion, indeed radical, summarizes the weariness of many managers who do not want to invest in Air France KLM.
The numbers speak for themselves. Market capitalization is more than 1.67 billion euros, less than 7% of annual sales and less than 25% of equity. The group is in any case weighed down by a net debt of 6 billion euros.
The government wanted to know the outcome of EU summit Wednesday evening, presented as crucial for the future of the euro area, prior to revise downward its growth forecasts. Despite the success of the meeting of the seventeen member countries of the euro area, which found the night of Wednesday to Thursday an agreement to stem the crisis at the moment on the Old Continent, the head of state n has been recognized that the Thursday night: the economy would not be up to expectations next year.
Until then, Bercy expected a GDP growth of 1.75% in 2012. But since the beginning of summer, the situation has deteriorated considerably. "For the sake of seriousness, we decided to lower our forecast to 1% next year," said Nicolas Sarkozy, who is aligned and the assumption by our German neighbor.And, near the line thickness, on the average forecast of economists (0.9%).
To keep the deficit targets despite this deterioration – and this is the top priority – must be found "6-8000000000" euros in savings or additional tax revenue next year, said Chief of the state.
Nicolas Sarkozy has asked Prime Minister Francois Fillon, with Valérie Pécresse (Budget) and Baroin (Economics), floor of the copy. And this new austerity program will be announced "in ten days," just after the G20 which takes place in Cannes.
What is certain is that "we must spend less on operating and investment to support growth (…).But calling for a tax harmonization with Germany, the president did not rule out the idea of raising the reduced rate (set at 7% across the Rhine at home against 5.5%) or the introduction of an intermediate VAT rate (between 5.5% and 19.6%) for products now subject to a reduced rate (catering, building …)
It announces clearly no "social VAT" – renamed "VAT antidélocalisation" to the UMP – hypothesis was raised in the procession of the tracks in the study. He implicitly endorsed the idea but has returned to the next presidential debate "in a few months."
However, companies should be tapped. Address the tax differential between multinationals and SMEs is a carrier. It is almost assumed that the new austerity plan will include a surcharge of corporate tax targeted at large enterprises.
It is the opinion more dangerous than others. That the member Martine PS Martinel just given to the Committee of Cultural Affairs as part of the passing of the Finance Act, sets fire to the powder in public broadcasting. Requires pre-election period, no doubt, is the set of reforms since 2008 who is harshly criticized, whether that of France Television as Audiovisual outside France (AEF). Even the men who are now in place are not immune to criticism. Little detailed review:
As for the AEF, the report by Martine Martinel denounces the "unrealistic financial trajectory proposed by the AEF and accepted by a confidence that can be described as blind by the State." Particularly with regard to advertising. "This led the AEF has requested a budget increase in 2011."MP sees this as the main cause of the lack of perspective of the state as the group itself that led the General Inspectorate of Finance to intervene in the summer. However, the member is concerned that "the national representation there is still no access."
It also criticized the management of the CEO, Alain de Pouzilhac, saying "the list of errors of management is already long enough and sufficient breach of trust used to put an end to the appointment of Mr. Alain de Pouzilhac ".
In the process, the MP also questions "the merger of RFI and France 24, it considers reform conducted forced march and which neither the need nor the utility are proven." However, Martine Ravinel advocates rapprochement between France and the 24 public group France Televisions.
France Televisions, however, is not immune to the report of the Socialist MEP.The latter believes that the 2008 reform has been to reduce advertising on France Televisions has a balance sheet "very negative". She asserts that the reform had a "zero impact of the abolition of advertising on the audience." It also is concerned "to a funding threatened and does not guarantee the necessary visibility to the group" as the organization itself of the company. It is particularly cautioned the government against "a lack of reference to employees" within the "single undertaking". Finally, Martine Martinel denounced at once "no channel dedicated to youth" and the need to "modernize France 3".
Explosive, this report could nullify in advance of the Commission's thinking on foreign broadcasting, chaired by MP Michèle Tabarot UMP. Yet its members do not want to change the schedule."Before giving our conclusions, we firstly audition Alain Juppe, foreign minister, who said he wanted to get involved in the matter, but also about the findings of the Inspectorate General of Finance," says Christian Kert , UMP deputy of Bouches du Rhone.
However, the options are continuing to clarify:
-Members of the opposition and the majority still stand on the issue of the merger of France 24 and RFI, as the two solutions would they be supported and at the discretion of the government.
-Governance structures to isolate the CEO of the AEF of different operational functions to avoid a repetition of the pattern Pouzilhac / Ockrent.
-The Commission may recommend synergies in terms of content between France Television and France 24.In this case, France Televisions could be invited to the board of the AEF.
-Finally, the Commission could recommend only the tutelage of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This is the week of Nov. 24 that the Commission could then make its own report.
The UMP deputies know that the growth forecast (1.75%) on which the draft budget for 2012 is revised downwards, and a new train of savings 5-7000000000 necessary, in addition to 11 billion already planned for next year. "The 2012 budget is credible, but it can be denied by a significant slowdown in growth," Analysis Louis Giscard d'Estaing. The Vice-Chairman of the Finance Committee of the Assembly recalls that "the time of the government of Lionel Jospin, it was the logic of the cicada, while in Germany Gerhard Schröder had imposed a cure without reduction of wage restraint working time, in line with the ant. But the wind is coming … "says the deputy of Puy de Dome, paraphrasing the fable of La Fontaine.Vice President of the National Assembly warned the Socialists: "Those who would maintain the idea that there is room for maneuver in the reuse of public spending, as does Francois Hollande, would directly threaten the notation France and our ability to deleverage. "
However, Louis Giscard d'Estaing is convinced that there is still food for thought in the financing of 35 hours. He will file an amendment in the bill funding the Social Security (PLFSS) for further reduce the limit on exemptions from employer contributions on wages at 1.5 times the minimum wage (currently against 1.6). Which would represent just over one billion euros in savings, if the measure comes into force on 1 January. He even suggested to lower the ceiling to 1.4 times the minimum wage in July 2012 to "give companies time to adjust."The UMP also suggests to "a general movement of the plane of the allocations to the operators of the state" by reducing them to 3% in 2012 payday advance lenders.
"Do not replace two staff on three"
In this area, Hervé Mariton (UMP, Drôme) also proposes to "ease the regulations that impact cost." Other proposals of the Liberal "not to replace two of three officials" and "examining investments less profitable," particularly in the area of infrastructure. "Do not panic about short-term savings. We will be judged on the strength and seriousness of a savings plan in the long term, "said Mariton. Special Rapporteur of the mission work jobs, Chantal Brunel (UMP, Seine-et-Marne) will propose to leave the tax deduction on home jobs "all leisure activities and relaxation."Isabelle Vasseur (UMP, Aisne), Rapporteur of the Finance Committee on Social Security Financing Bill, will propose this afternoon the establishment of "prevention, source of major savings in health" she assures.
The former chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Jean Arthuis think we need to "reduce the amount of grants to local authorities" and "to lower executive compensation operators of the state." Former budget minister, Dominique Bussereau is more cautious: "We are still on the bone. The revision of public policies (RGPP) was very effective, so that the state is under-Box at the local level, "says he.
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The G20, which takes care of everything but no matter what, is interested. At their summit on 15 October in Paris, the central bankers of major economies in the world have endorsed the charter "consumer products and financial services." This text prepared by the OECD focuses "on the effort of education and awareness of financial issues," the general public.
The debate rages in the United States since the mortgage crisis "subprime" that erupted in 2007, putting the straw millions of Americans. Already 7.6 million families were divested of their homes, unable to meet their deadlines bank, and additional 7.4 million expected to be dislodged by 2016, the consultant provides Housing Predictor.This disaster certainly responsible for financial institutions that have dangled their customers become unbearable when mortgage interest rates began to climb. But as a last resort should we not blame the naivete and ignorance of borrowers unable to understand what they were doing?
President Obama has made it a priority that "Americans have the skills to effectively manage their disposable income and guard against deceptive practices and predatory." It is in these terms that the White House, with a "Council for Financial literacy" (financial literacy), decreed that April is "National Financial Literacy Month." One way to educate the public each spring operational introduction to finance more and more overseas.Even the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) devotes part of its website with practical advice for a wide popular audience.
There is much to do. According to a survey conducted by FINRA (Investor Education Foundation), 68% of households have no personal events to finance as predictable as retirement or education for their children. And only 49% of households have "sufficient funds to cover the expenses of three months in case of illness, unemployment."
Carelessness or incompetence? "Most Americans lack the basic numeracy skills and knowledge of basic economic principles, such as the mechanisms of inflation, risk diversification, and the relationship between interest rates and financial asset prices "said Annamaria Lusardi economist, the George Washington School of Business.He has just published a series of studies on the subject.
This decision is based on a strict set of five test questions contained in the survey FINRA and here are the results. Thus only 65% of respondents answered correctly that "a capital of $ 100, paid 2% per year, worth over 102 dollars in five years overnight pay day loans." Similarly 64% understand that "if inflation is 2% and the returns on their savings by 1%, their capital will be worth less in a year." Only 21% know that the price of a bond decreases mechanically when interest rates rise in the market. This is the question most cotton test: the Financial Times noted for its readership "high end" has to explain every time the mechanism in its reporting of the market.In contrast, 70% of Americans know that "a fifteen-year loan requires monthly payments higher than a loan of thirty years, but that all interest paid over the life of the loan will be lower." They are, however, that 52% believed that the purchase of a share of one company is necessarily more risky than the subscription of shares of mutual funds in shares. In total "less than 10% of Americans are able to correctly answer all five questions," said Annamaria Lusardi.
The French should not make fun of poor performance. The Institute for Financial Literacy public (IEFP), established in 2006 at the initiative of the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), is about to publish a similar survey conducted in the Hexagon. However the results appear even worse, can we prevent the IEFP.
The issue is probably lower in France.The balance of PAYG pensions and group health insurance does not appeal to individual decisions. Besides the French are much less indebted than their cousins across the Atlantic.
Weaknesses in the calculation are the best thing in the world shared. Luc Chatel, Minister of Education and Xavier Darcos, his predecessor, did they not been trapped on television to have a mistake in a rule of three? This rule of proportionality, it is nevertheless essential to know the place to convert into euros the amounts in dollars! While it is fashionable to "be angry with the figures," while no one admits not knowing how to read. "Everyone complains of his memory, and no one complains of his trial," said La Rochefoucauld.Failing to properly count unfortunately causes the tragic misjudgment we know, both for households and for states. Hence the saying advisors financial products, worthy of the name: "It must be understood before taking."
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The applications are increasing in the resumption of Swiss France Telecom. In any case, think they know what the Echoes, which announced Friday the opening match of Xavier Niel in the race for the resumption of the Helvetic subsidiary of the French operator. According to the newspaper, the co-buyer of the World with Pierre Bergé and Matthew Pigasse, have filed an application for the acquisition of the asset, the group wants to get rid Stéphane Richard since late July. Announced during half-year results, this operation should yield between 1.5 and 2 billion euros to France Telecom. Or so hopes in the group.
Despite the difficult conditions of funding and the increased reluctance of banks, the French operator has not given up the sale. The facts seem to prove him right, a dozen candidates who have passed the process of selling the asset.But the arrival of Xavier Niel somewhat diversified profile of potential buyers. So far, the majority of applications related investment funds: Apax, Providence, EQT, Bain Capital, Liberty Global, Doughty Hanson and Carlyle separately and Altice, Numéricable shareholders.
Support of Goldman Sachs
Xavier Niel, the head of the Iliad, the 297th ranked Fortune Global Forbes, meanwhile intervene personally. The Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris politician, former CEO of the operator Orascom is also in the race. Faced with these heavyweights of finance, the French entrepreneur has joined forces with the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs, report echoes.
"At 2 billion Swiss francs (1.6 billion euros, Ed), Orange Switzerland is valued six times its gross operating profit on the stock exchange more than 3.8 times that of France Telecom," the daily explains.A premium is explained by the fact that the sale of Orange Switzerland is the only major operation in progress on the Old Continent now, and that France Telecom has commissioned ahead of banks, including Credit Suisse, HSBC, JP Morgan, to prepare a financing plan ahead in order to facilitate the implementation of the operation.
At the second round of bidding, all filings seem to hold the interest of the French operator, since no application has yet been ruled out.
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The new windfall tax on high incomes that night passed in the Assembly she will enhance the effectiveness of tax? In fact, the interplay of tax loopholes and the architecture of the tax still allows the wealthy to cancel their taxes. According to "the latest data, covering the tax paid this year as revenue in 2010," cited by Les Echos, nearly 5,000 high earners have completely cleared their taxes this year.
Thus, 4800 households taxed at the last tax bracket of 41% and thus have a taxable income of more than 70,830 euros have erased their income tax by the interplay of tax loopholes. 6497 they were last year.Meanwhile, more than 9,000 tax households have reduced their tax between 70% and 100%, according to the report on the 2012 budget Gilles Carrez quoted as saying.
In addition, the report finds that the member tax is proportionally lower in high-tax scale. Thus, households last year at the head of a benchmark tax income of more than 500,000 euros per share had a tax rate of 26% against 28.5% for those earning over 250,000 euros per unit cash advances pay day loan. The explanation is simple: the wealthy derive most of their income from capital is taxed less than income from wages.
The new tax on high incomes should correct these inequities. The tax households reporting between 250,000 and 500,000 euros will pay a tax of 3% and those reporting more than 500,000 of 4%.
But the very high income should continue to be taxed proportionately less.Liliane Bettencourt spends less than 15% of its income for tax purposes against nearly 30% on average for a living part of his work, recently castigated the PS deputy Pierre-Alain Mute. And on the other side of the Atlantic, Warren Buffett has built his own case as a symbol. The latter is crusading for the adoption of a tax on high incomes in the U.S. revealed to have paid $ 6.9 million in taxes, a rate of 17.4% of its taxable income.
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Run for your lives! This is the response of the Greek youth graduated from the crisis and the stacking of austerity since early 2010. Examples abound. The Goethe Institute in Athens is facing a 70% increase in enrollment in German courses. A recruiting office in Northern Ireland offers young Greek, says Athens News, collect mushrooms or work in aquatic farms. A conference on migration to Australia by invitation only-recently gathered 1000 graduates (even though only 100 Greeks settled in the island-continent in 2010).
The Greeks want to leave their countries in crisis, but it is not seen in official statistics."Based on preliminary figures available, we observe no increase in emigration in Greece in 2010," notes Jonathan Chaloff, migration expert at the OECD, based on information provided by the U.S., Australian, Canadian or Swedish. "There is indeed a great desire to emigrate, but the obstacles are real: the language barrier, recognition of qualifications, etc..," Said he.
More border, more control
This is not the only reason why migration flows are difficult to perceive. "Young Greeks are mainly the countries of the European Union," Lois Labrianidis point, Professor of Economics at the University of Thessaloniki."But as there is no boundary or control, you can not count these departures." The researcher is a hint: the Greeks entered in the European Internet portal EURES CV exploded in 2011, reaching 15,500, two times the total recorded since its inception in 1993.
Young people fleeing a country they consider no future. "The dynamics of the labor market is worrying. The unemployment rate reached 16%, up 50% from 2010. And for young people is twice (30%), "notes Manon Domingues Dos Santos, migration specialist at the University Paris-Est Marne-La-Vallée. "In this context, the most qualified are the most mobile: they speak foreign languages and better meet the needs of labor in host countries."
The crisis accelerates a phenomenon of brain drain that affects Greece for at least 10 years.At the edge of recession, in 2007, already 12.2% of the most educated Greeks living abroad, or at least 876,000 people. This figure is just swell: already during this period, more than 4.5% of graduates were leaving Greece every year, according to figures compiled by Frédéric Docquier, a professor at the University of Louvain. This is much less than Portugal (over 12%) but almost twice as Spain, also in crisis countries. In comparison, only 1.31% of French graduates leave the country.
Herding phenomenon
View from the best-trained its elites to broader horizons, such is the fate of small countries like Ireland or Lithuania. "Greece, however, could prove to be a special case, said Frédéric Docquier. It is in near-bankruptcy.They may therefore develops a herd phenomenon: if the elites and the most qualified anticipate the crisis and with rigor, everyone will leave the country when you leave you too. "
Problem: well-trained elites are among the taxpayers most likely to pay high taxes. Leaving their country, they will not settle the affairs of the state. In the longer term, "the departure of more skilled threatens growth by detracting from the production of research and innovation," Manon Domingues Dos Santos is concerned.
Greece, which was over twenty years, between 50 and 70 years, a land of emigration, however, tries to take advantage of its diaspora. The government has proposed this year to Greeks abroad to finance its debt to the tune of 3 billion euros.
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The opening of a new generation of "palaces" some months apart, Le Royal Monceau (opened October 18, 2010), Shangri-La (December 17, 2010) and Mandarin Oriental (28 June 2011), has changed as ever the small world of luxury hotels in Paris, forcing the oldest palaces in a serious challenge. In this new context, the Ritz is not alone in having to close for repairs.
Reportedly, Le Crillon, recently sold by Starwood Capital to one of the descendants of the Saudi royal family, plans to close in the second half of 2012, probably for a period of two years. Management has already attacked the facade and roof, but not inside. The idea is to keep the French style, classic 18th, upgrading the hotel, he in turn can officially claim the distinction of "palace", introduced in May by the government.The hotel has no spa, no pool. The technical installations and the rooms have aged. According to a close case, the amount of work would be between 70 and 100 million euros. Not far from the Place de Concorde, the Plaza is also preparing for months of work, avenue Montaigne. "The Plaza Athénée will start the work of great importance following the acquisition of three buildings adjacent to the hotel last year, says Le Figaro Francois Delahaye, his boss cash advance no fax. These projects are planned for the end of 2012.Among the possibilities, a closure is planned for five months, from November 2012. "
According to Gabriel Matar, director of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels France, the average price of a night in a palace of between 750 and 1000 euros, "defending his position became increasingly difficult as competition comes from both new entrants and old, who spend millions to keep the quality of their product. " For the record, the George V was completely renovated between 1997 and 1999. "Otherwise, it would be today as the Royal Monceau and The Prince of Wales prior to closing," said Gabriel Matar."We currently have the best average revenue per room in Paris and we did not want to raise our market share by newcomers!" Says François Delahaye.
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A debt crisis could lead to another. The Greek fire is not yet off the government needs to rush to the bedside of local authorities and their bank moribund, the sulfur Dexia. Not a week goes by without a large community calls upon the State to the rescue. At least 200 cities, councils, hospitals and housing associations are home loans on their books "toxic" with huge interest rates have put their finances at risk. Listed, some heavyweights as Saint-Etienne, Marseille, Grenoble, but also the urban community of Lille and the General Council of Seine-Saint-Denis. To reopen the tap credit to communities that provide 75% of the investment in the country, the government had to address the problem urgently Dexia.Will this be enough there?
Last month, the government has activated for the first time a special support fund created in late 2010 for the departments in need. The beneficiaries are seven departments (six rural) whose debt is massive, and revenues, almost entirely absorbed by the distribution of welfare. Hitherto considered the spoiled children of decentralization, regions require the State to review the financing of rail, now they consider "untenable" for their budgets low interest rate personal loans.
The alarm level is reached. In ten years, spending communities have increased by 60%, and local taxes, 45%! These figures are staggering.Whose fault? A lax politicians and poor managers who prefer to treat their customers (36,000 hiring officials last year when the state removed 34,000 positions)? The lack of political will of the state, hostage to local barons? Bankers incendiary? To have the heart net, Le Figaro Magazine has plunged into the accounts of local authorities, was shelled and analyzed partnered with the Thomas More Institute and Public Evaluation System.Inspiring!
"Cities: heat stroke on taxes (pdf)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (the Ain to the Haute-Garonne)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (the Gers in Puy-de-Dôme)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (in the Pyrenees-Atlantique to Val d'Oise)
"Region: always a sacred way of life
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