From our correspondent in Washington
American giants distribution keep their cool. The absolute record of purchases in one day is certainly to be beaten after the national holiday of Thanksgiving.
This Friday, malls and independent stores in the United States sold more than 11.4 billion worth of goods. But up from last year about 7% of purchases this Black Friday (known since the 1960 Black Friday in the sense of "black people") does not necessarily mean that the holiday season, crucial for annual profits of distributors, will be memorable. The purchasing power of Americans do not progressing. Only by drawing on their modest savings that households increased their spending in the fall.
To draw in their paths some 152 million Americans, most major retailers like Wal-Mart, Target and Best Buy have dared to open their doors in the middle of the night from Thursday to Friday. Offering discounts up to 60%, they mobilized a group of customers eager to use after months of deprivation. Commerce online has participated in the movement also offering exceptional discounts. Friday and for 24 hours, Apple has reduced by 10% and the prices of its popular digital tablets. The net impact of these promotions on margins in the industry to be determined. Monday is called Cyber Monday.
The French shun savings products they preferred. A booklet after earlier this week, it's life insurance to take stock bleak for the month of October. The French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA) has published figures from the Sunday collection. Last month it dropped from 16% to 9.1 billion euros. The amount of contributions collected in the first 10 months of 2011 amounted to 107 billion euros, down 12% over the same period of the year.
Worse, the agency confirmed that the withdrawals were higher than inflows. In October, the balance is negative to the tune of 1.4 billion euros. It is, indeed, a little less bad than a month earlier. In September, withdrawals have exceeded payments of more than 1.8 billion euros.But above all it confirms that life insurance through a bad patch with unprecedented for the first time two consecutive months of negative collection cash advance america.
Questioned by AFP, the FFSA wants to be reassuring. "Let us not forget that these are data points. If you look from the beginning of the vision is very different, "cautions Bernard Spitz, President of the FFSA, underlining that the payments exceed 17.7 billion euros withdrawals in the first ten months of 2011 . A figure that compared to last year's data with the same period, however, shows a precipitous drop of 63%, the statement of the FFSA.
Pensions of baby boomers
These results reflect a combination never seen before, the structural and cyclical factors unfavorable. Life insurance suffers from the retirement of baby boomers. These offset the drop in income by drawing on their life insurance.
The euro fell more than 7% over the month against the dollar. The European currency has just gone below the $ 1.33. This violent collapse is due to the political and financial unrest affecting the euro area. There is now a consensus among strategists providing a further correction. "The state of the market reflects the near certainty that Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to cut rates before the end of its mandate" in late October, said John Kicklighter, strategist at DailyFX, a subsidiary of the giant FXCM currency. "It could be that the repurchase of government bonds continues. If these scenarios are realized, this would be very bearish for the euro. "
The bell sound is little more optimistic in. The experts of the French subsidiary of the Danish bank focused their attention on the delays of politicians."Speeches are encouraging to reassure the markets a while but in the absence of concrete solutions, the downward trend should continue," they said in a note sent to clients. The same applies to the specialists of the broker, "no concrete steps have been taken and so it has not been made, the euro will continue to r suffered."
Repatriation of capital in dollars
With the strong underperformance of European markets, investors, especially American, have reduced the share of assets invested in European equities. The repatriation of capital cause lift the dollar against the euro.
The downward spiral is likely to continue in the fourth quarter. Earlier this year, Saxo Bank had made a bet of one euro to 1.15 dollar. This goal seemed absurd end of April (the euro now approaching $ 1.5) no longer is.In any case, the euro could be worth between 1.20 and $ 1.25 at the end of the year. In this zone, the euro would only return to its value in purchasing power parity further point out the experts. Some exporting companies that have had the good sense not to cover may already be rubbing their hands. This is the case in particular that benefits both an aircraft carrier cycle and a decline of the euro against the dollar.
It seems that the era of the strong euro against the dollar is behind us. For individuals, it is possible to speculate down on the euro-dollar by selling the currency pair in cash in a currency broker. It may also be wise to buy put options or put options due in March (for example). This strategy can multiply its earnings but does concern a limited part of a portfolio.The current movement is also favorable to purchases of dollar assets (U.S. real estate, stocks on Wall Street …).
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Car manufacturers ultra-luxurious living on another planet. The downside risks, of concern to general groups, do not seem to disturb them. Concessions in the Ferrari, "consumers are not worried about a recession. The last I saw did not look desperate, "said Sergio Marchionne, the CEO of Fiat, at the Frankfurt Motor Show.
The Prancing Horse brand also provides for a new record this year by selling 7,000 cars, against 6,570 last year. Ferrari is also counting on a profit before tax "significant", following an increase of 23% in 2010 to 302 million euros. "I'm not worried because we have quality, exclusivity, a strong brand and innovative technology," said its president, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo.
It is the only one to be extremely confident.Rolls-Royce (BMW Group), whose boss, Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes, said he was "optimistic" about prospects for its niche, also wants to exceed its historical performance of last year (2711 cars). The luxury brand will invest 11.4 million euros to expand its plant in Goodwood English and plans to increase its network from 85 to 100 outlets.
Buyers richer
Sales of the major European luxury brands (Maserati, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin) are expected to jump 19% this year to 28,100 vehicles, and increase by 13% in 2012, according to a study by IHS Automotive no checking account payday advance. "The rich are becoming richer, and the number of millionaires in emerging and growing. It is a very positive trend "for specialists in this niche, says Erich Hauser, an analyst at Credit Suisse agency quoted Bloomberg.For him, "should things go really bad" for the champions of this market find themselves in difficulty.
The ultra-premium segment should be able to pass through an economic downturn better than in the previous crisis, which saw sales of certain brands to collapse, says the CEO of Rolls-Royce. "This market is growing steadily since its low point in 2009" but "we are aware that there are risks," acknowledges, however, Stephan Winkelmann, Lamborghini's boss. But for now, the Italian brand of the Volkswagen group does not seem to fear a decline in the purchasing power of its wealthy clients. It will produce 20 Sesto Elemento for early 2013. Their price: 1.6 million euro.
The U.S. stock markets are reluctant. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones lost 0.24% to 11,034 points while the Nasdaq climbed 0.33% to 2503 points and the S & P 500 gained 0.09% to 1162 points.
On Monday, the New York Stock Exchange ended in the green while Rome had asked China to buy the Italian debt. The salvation of the euro area could therefore eventually come from China. Forced to borrow at prohibitive rates Monday morning, Rome had in fact asked Beijing to make significant repurchases of its sovereign debt, reports the Financial Times. A member of the Italian government confirmed on Monday the existence of discussions with the Middle Kingdom on potential investments in Beijing in the third largest economy in the euro area.But this morning, market rumors suggest that Beijing is not finally ready to buy Italian bonds, taking again the indices into the red in Europe.
Faced with these contradictory information, caution remains appropriate today. In addition, U.S. carriers, such as Europe and Asia, remain very concerned about Greece. They fear it will not be able to meet these budget commitments, which threaten to bankrupt the country and aggravate the crisis in Europe. An output of the euro in Greece is also now considered by many economists.
This morning Jean-Pierre Jouyet, chairman of the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), said on iTV that Greece may have to undergo further restructuring of its debt than expected.German side, Angela Merkel is trying to catch up about his Economy Minister Philipp Rösler, who spoke Monday the event of a default of Athens. In a radio interview BBB, the Chancellor found it necessary to "avoid any uncontrolled process in the euro area."
The United States involved in resolving the crisis in the eurozone
The United States also stressed that they became involved in resolving the crisis in the eurozone, as the Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner will participate Friday in the meeting of Ministers of Economy and Finance Union European Poland.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro was down slightly Tuesday against the dollar and the yen on Monday after falling $ 1.35 for the first time since February and the lowest for 10 years against the yen, and the voltage was strong, the markets fear more a possible failure of Greece no teletrek payday advance.Around 11 am, the European currency was worth 1.3608 dollars against 1.3624 dollars.
As for oil prices, they were mixed, helped by a relative weakening of the dollar-weighted but the latest projections of OPEC anticipates a lower than expected growth in demand for crude because of the nervousness of the markets. In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" gave himself 80 cents to 88.99 dollars a barrel while Brent North Sea, more sensitive to economic conditions in Europe, gave 52 cents to 112 , $ 25.
On the macroeconomic front, investors will monitor including import prices to be unveiled in late afternoon.
Samsung attack Apple
The side of values, Hewlett-Packard announced on Tuesday that 41.62% of the shareholders of Autonomy British had supported his bid.The U.S. group also announced it was extending its offer until Oct. 3.
The giant South Korean electronics Samsung Electronics filed a complaint in France against its U.S. rival Apple for a litigation involving three patents relating to UMTS technology. "The complaint focuses on three technology patents, and not the design of the shelves," as was the case during a recent trial in Germany, said a spokesman for Samsung.
Rating agencies could worsen them.Moody's has indeed said yesterday that it planned to degrade the note by the McGraw-Hill, who announced his intention to focus on competing rating agency Standard and Poor's division after educational activities.
For his part Nordson Corp. announced yesterday after the close had authorized a share repurchase program of $ 100 million.
Note also the U.S. internet group AOL has appointed a new editor for TechCrunch, the site of information on technologies he had bought in September 2010, after 10 days of controversy over the fate of the former owner, Michael Arrington . The new editor is Erick Schonfeld, Associate Editor edited by Michael Arrington. AOL announced that Michael Arrington, founder of the site, decided to leave TechCrunch and AOL to devote to investment funds that it recently launched.
"Our damage is the result of the positions of a political party over another," said David Beers of Standard & Poor's. It is in fact the political impasse that is degraded.
The agency draws conclusions from long weeks of fruitless discussions between the White House and Republicans in Congress on the issue of public debt. It punishes the agreement therefore insufficient on 2100 billion dollars in savings over ten years voted last week on Capitol Hill.
S & P expected, like others, agreed two times more ambitious and also noted the dangerous precedent set by the threat of default artificial Treasury for lack of voting in time for raising the ceiling of the debt.
Republican intransigence in this political struggle partly explains the lack of compromise.The Conservatives' refusal to consider any tax increase prevented Barack Obama to make concessions in terms of reducing social spending. As far the President has not operated to best deal with Republicans and finds himself in some way "degraded".
The Republican campaign already denounced the "president who has ruined America by driving up the debt of 40% and lose its" AAA "rating."
Imprisoned at Camp David for the weekend, Barack Obama has not even commented on the news. His approval rating fell from 40 to 42% last week, the lowest of his term.Beyond the trust, which is increasingly lacking, its scope is more narrow.
The prestige of America severely affected
While growth slows dangerously, it seems short of ammunition to boost growth because public debt is too high for a fiscal stimulus. The President has not found the words to restore confidence and prevent Wall Street dive. He can not expect miracles from the Federal Reserve, which already maintains zero interest rates since December 2008. At best, it is hoped that the falling dollar boosts exports and saves the United States of a new recession.
Finally, with this degradation of Standard & Poor's is the very image and prestige of the first power of the world that are severely affected.To the point that China, with over one trillion U.S. debt is now ready to teach economics at the American Barack Obama.
Annick Goutal perfumes changes hands. Korean cosmetics group Amore Pacific, which owns the Lolita Lempicka fragrance and cosmetics Laneige, acquired the French brand to the U.S. fund Starwood Capital. The latter had acquired in 2005 by taking control of several jewels of the Taittinger family group: hotels Crillon and Lutetia or Baccarat crystal.
Goutal perfumes, bought by Taittinger in 1985 and still led by Brigitte Taittinger, had been founded by Annick Goutal in 1981. The brand has stores in France, Belgium, UK and Canada, but mainly distribution agreements with 1300 stores in twenty countries. Amore Pacific sees growth potential in Asia.
Alone. While the deadline of August 2 is fast approaching, U.S. Republicans and Democrats still can not agree to raise the ceiling of the debt. The stakes are high: to avoid a failure to pay the United States.
That night, the U.S. Senate, dominated by Democratic allies of Obama, rejected by 59 votes against 41, the bill passed earlier in the day in the House of Representatives by Republican opponents (218 votes against 210). The plan was to raise the ceiling of over $ 900 billion in exchange for cuts in the amount equivalent to ten years. A second increase would take place in early 2012, during an election campaign for the presidential and legislative elections in November. The Democrats, meanwhile, favor a single increase in the ceiling of the debt.
Anticipating this fails, the Democratic majority leader, Harry Reid, took action after the election to try to get another text by Tuesday. "I asked my friend, the Republican leader (Mitch McConnell) to negotiate and he chose not to do," said Harry Reid soon after the Senate vote. It's a shame. I want to make a difference, "he added.
The United States has more than 50% chance to maintain their "AAA"
In the aftermath, the White House renewed its call for a "compromise" savings account payday advance."Now that this new political maneuvering is over, when the time runs out, the leaders of Congress must start working together immediately to reach a compromise that avoids a default and establish the basis of a reduction balance deficits, "said in a statement the spokesman of President Barack Obama, Jay Carney.
Despite the tense situation that is feared the worst for the U.S. economy, the rating agency Moody's does not think the note degrade the U.S. in the short term. She even intends to confirm its "AAA", but with a negative perspective …. This means that the country could lose its status as a safe sender in the medium term.For the rating agency, the U.S. has more than 50% chance to retain its best. "If we are convinced that the economy will take off in 2012 and will demonstrate strong growth, the consolidation process tax will be facilitated, "said Moody's analyst Steven Hess said in an interview with Reuters.
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It's a simple story of leeks and parsley that was enough to put at the door. Peggy Gerard, who works at a supermarket Ed Nieppe, in the North, was fired July 15 for gross misconduct after the vegetables were discovered in his car. This woman, a supervisor, says she got these vegetables "faded" with a premiere independent, and they were for his rabbits. But his explanations were not enough to his employer, who believes she tells … salad.
Because the direction of the hard-discount Ed says Peggy Gerard admitted during the control be in possession of the goods from the store. "On June 1, an area manager wanted to control the trunk of my car when I went home for lunch," says this single mother who works for the brand since October 2005."I refused twice because I felt that he had no right. But the third, I finally agreed. He found a black garbage bag with vegetables in it. In the afternoon, shortly after the reopening, I was told to go home, "said the employee fired.
Without contributions Assedic
Thief or victim? Peggy Gerard vain shall submit a declaration confirming that the merchant had recovered well, the eve of the facts, the vegetables in question. "I never had no problems. I was never charged even if an apple when I fly threw for 300 euros of goods per day, "says the young woman.
Peggy Gerard now plans to defend himself before the tribunal. It took the union Workers' Force (FOR) will continue Ed's behalf. "This is unacceptable.Not only do we get to the bottom, but we must treat emergency because Ed refused to give certificates of the Assedic contributions to enable it to survive, "Lionel rebels Meuris, general secretary of the union county TF North, adding: "The facts are totally unjustified. Ed to grow up acknowledging their error and restoring its employee's rights. "
Lettuce, leeks and parsley vegetables "stolen" in question – be sufficient to deprive Peggy Gerard's job? In late June, an employee of Monoprix in Marseille had been laid off for trying to get two salads and six melons in a garbage collected. He has since returned to duty.
François Hollande line breaks with the Socialist Party in the reduction of debt. The Socialist candidate for the primary aims to reduce "from 2013" the public deficit to 3%, one year before the date fixed in the official program of the Socialist Party, he said in an interview in Le Monde. It aligns well on the commitment of the Fillon government towards its European partners.
"We must rebalance our public accounts of 2013," that is to say, that date back to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), he said. "We can not let stand the public debt at the risk of the burden of our interests in the country's first budget, which alters our room for maneuver, he said. Debt is the enemy of the left and France. "The Socialist Party has set its program a path of debt reduction more slowly, with a deficit to 3% of GDP in 2014 alone.
François Hollande joins the current objectives of Bercy. The Ministry of Finance shall reduce the deficit to 6% at end 2011 to 4.6% in late 2012 to late 2013 and 3% to 2% in late 2014. With such a policy, public debt would start to decline, according to the Government in 2013. All with a 2% growth in 2011 and 2.5% in subsequent years (the latter assumption being as optimistic by many economists).
Baroin criticizes PS
The statement by the Socialist candidate for the primary came as the euro area, particularly the Italian debt has again been targeted by the markets this week. France is so far immune to the shocks, welcomed the Minister of Economy Baroin in an interview with Le Figaro Magazine published on Saturday.The new host has de Bercy on the other hand showed severe with the socialist project: "It is irresponsible with regard to the preservation of our growth to provide a fiscal impact of an increase of 50 billion euros of taxes."
François Hollande asserts that tax reform will be his first, especially via the same scale for labor income and capital, a merger of the income tax and the CSG and the elimination of tax loopholes. "The candidate who announces that there will be no extra effort beyond 2012 will be a president who perjure themselves," he said. He also reiterated that he wanted to return to retirement at age 60 and he would vote against the golden rule, which aims to set a limit to the deficit in the constitution.
The rating agency Fitch has warned France in late May: the reforms undertaken in recent years, such as pensions, "have improved the outlook for public finances." But "further efforts will be needed to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013, as agreed," she adds. In addition, it would be welcome, according to Fitch, that Paris set in the constitution the principle of balance of public finances and reduce its "structural rigidities".
Holland criticized the European delay
The candidate Holland is very critical of the strategies of Paris and Berlin in the rescue of the euro area. "France and Germany are missing," he Assen."Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel bear a heavy responsibility in the divorce of the Franco-German because the euro zone can only work if there is a total concordance of views between the two countries that represent over 40% of its economic power. "
France and Germany are divided on how to share the burden of the second aid package to Greece with the banking sector. Which blocks the negotiations and feeds the nervous markets. A crisis meeting to be held on Thursday between the finance ministers of the euro area. But the plan should be finally adopted in September, at the next summit between the Heads of State and Government in Europe.
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