From our correspondent in Washington
American giants distribution keep their cool. The absolute record of purchases in one day is certainly to be beaten after the national holiday of Thanksgiving.
This Friday, malls and independent stores in the United States sold more than 11.4 billion worth of goods. But up from last year about 7% of purchases this Black Friday (known since the 1960 Black Friday in the sense of "black people") does not necessarily mean that the holiday season, crucial for annual profits of distributors, will be memorable. The purchasing power of Americans do not progressing. Only by drawing on their modest savings that households increased their spending in the fall.
To draw in their paths some 152 million Americans, most major retailers like Wal-Mart, Target and Best Buy have dared to open their doors in the middle of the night from Thursday to Friday. Offering discounts up to 60%, they mobilized a group of customers eager to use after months of deprivation. Commerce online has participated in the movement also offering exceptional discounts. Friday and for 24 hours, Apple has reduced by 10% and the prices of its popular digital tablets. The net impact of these promotions on margins in the industry to be determined. Monday is called Cyber Monday.
Coffee breaks should be shorter now for the employees of Goldman Sachs in New York. In recent days, in fact, they have at their disposal coffee cups smaller than normal. The bank, which has embarked on an extensive program of savings $ 1.45 billion in mid-2012, estimates that reducing the size of the cups 35 cl at 29 he will save "thousands of dollars ". In the same vein, the machines "cashless" (to recharge with cash cards can be used to pay vending machines) are becoming increasingly rare in buildings. According to Goldman Sachs, it will pay less armored car to transport the money raised.
Other banks, Wall Street stars, also address their operating costs.The offices are less green and Morgan Stanley, which decided to cut the budget plant. "Every dollar not spent is a dollar that can be used for growth," says her boss wisely James Gorman. Bank of America canceled several expensive meeting, while Barclays will strictly monitor the bill for business phones for its employees.
Bonuses reduced and job cuts
More importantly, the impressive bonus paid out to employees at year end should be reduced. Although for the moment, the cumulative 65.69 billion dollars, set aside for this purpose in the first half by Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, do not show it yet. In recent await the end of the fourth quarter before taking any decisions about it.
Saving measures will also affect employment installment payday loans.Goldman Sachs cuts and positions could not be about 3% of the workforce (1,000 people), as expected so far, but 5% of the total. Bank of America will eliminate 30,000 positions, JPMorgan Chase 3000.
A disastrous quarter
The time has come for U.S. investment banks to tighten their belt after a disastrous third quarter. The very poor stock market performance of major Wall Street banks over the period, characterized by loss of 16% to 49% over the period, illustrate the phenomenon.
The reason: the pressure around the debt crisis in Europe affects the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic, the new cases of mergers and acquisitions and bond below the 2008/2009 levels, and economic slowdown in the U.S. and the euro area.Not to mention the always present impacts of the subprime crisis.
Symbol difficulties, Goldman Sachs is expected to announce on 18 October, its worst quarter since going public 12 years ago. The consensus of analysts now speak of an earnings per share of $ 1.35 (against 2.65 dollars a month ago), a loss of profitability of 50% over the year. Some even refer to a quarterly loss that the bank would be its first episode since the Lehman Brothers in 2008.
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Financial markets had clearly joined the decommissioning of the debt rating of Italy. In fact, the announcement on the night of Monday to Tuesday, the degradation of the Italian note by Standard & Poor's had only a moderate effect on European markets. At the finish, the CAC 40 gained 1.50% at 2 984.05 points. The volume of trade is still small. About 2.6 billion changed hands on the great values of the Paris stock exchange.
Having dithered for most of the session, the other major European markets have also opted for the green in the very last lap. 2.88% ahead of Frankfurt, London and Milan by 1.98% to 1.91%. Wall Street awaited with optimism after the Fed meeting on Wednesday night.In session, the Dow Jones gained 0.47% and the Nasdaq 0.62%.
Paris, which opened on a slightly pessimistic quickly changed his tune, from the bulk of the session in the green. The index briefly accused the sudden mid-afternoon, after the publication of a report by the IMF lowered its growth forecasts in the world and expressed concern about the evolution of the economy in the United States and Europe. The organization has also warned against the risk of destabilizing the global financial system if the debt crisis continues to spread to major countries in the euro area Online payday loans.
If he had anticipated the deterioration in the rating of Italy by Standard & Poor's, the Paris market, retained a great excitement to the crisis of debt in the euro area and remained suspended including ongoing negotiations to avoid a bankruptcy of Greece.A new conference was scheduled Tuesday night between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the "troika" of the creditors of the country, European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. The outcome of these negotiations is crucial for the country. It conditions the payment in October of the sixth round of eight billion euros of the loan last year in the euro area country and the IMF.
In Paris, banking stocks have nevertheless taken the index back down green. Societe Generale lost 2.43% and 6.32% BNP Paribas. However titles sensitive to the dollar ended sharply higher, with the image of LVMH (3.64%) and EADS (3.11%)
From our special correspondent in Wroclaw.
The Europeans hoped "a dialogue between friends," the Americans had "no arrogance." Las. With the destabilization of markets and growing concern on both sides of the Atlantic, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, could not resist lecturing his seventeen counterparts in the euro area gathered Friday to Wroclaw (Poland).
The relief provided by five central banks – including the U.S. Fed – banks in the euro area will not long concealed the absence of concerted policy response to the crisis. On behalf of the Europeans, the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker declined projects Tim Geithner, citing "differences in approach with our American colleagues."Treasury Secretary, he has put his finger where the euro hurts: he publicly expressed concern "of the conflict between governments and the European Central Bank," a week after the sensational resignation of the Chief Economist of the ECB .
Barack Obama's America, soon launched a presidential campaign, fearing a collapse of Greece, a contagion to European banks and a possible fracture of the euro area. If the crisis deepens, it is the U.S. economy would suffer the backlash, shock reverse of that which had hit Europe after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The first message in Washing-ton is to push the Europeans to speak with one voice and act decisively. "Governments and the Central Bank should work together (…) to avoid catastrophic risks for financial markets," said Treasury Secretary.And he insists, denouncing the cacophony that destabilizes the common currency: "Everyone should also abstain from loose talk about the end of the euro area." Targeted: the proponents of expulsion from Greece …
Denial of a tax on financial transactions
The unprecedented invitation launched by Poland – host country because currently presiding the EU – Timothy Geithner had anything to embarrass, in turmoil, the finance ministers of the euro. We saw Baroin host the head of U.S. Treasury of a strong handshake in Wroclaw. But the Euro has carefully kept at a distance. He has not formally participated in the circle, but a "preliminary conversation" about an hour. Contrary to custom, he did not sent to journalists.To tell his truths to Europe, he preferred an audience of bankers in another part of town.
Some did not take gloves to say that Europe has no lessons to learn. The United States, collapsing under the deficits should put their own house, says the Belgian Didier Reynders. "America has nothing to dictate when the person refuses flatly our suggestions," added the Austrian Maria Fekter. It is true that Tim Geithner repeated Friday his opposition front to the tax on financial transactions carried to Paris, Berlin and Brussels.
Decisions deferred
For the second time in eight days, Treasury Secretary left Europe empty-handed. Friday, the Europeans have made a face at her suggestion to "leverage" means the EFSF, the bailout fund for countries of the euro in difficulty."This is not a subject that is discussed with a country outside the EU," Jean-Claude Juncker meant. Same end of inadmissibility of the American idea of supporting the growth of public funds "even a donkey does not stumble twice on the same stone, 'says Didier Reynders, convinced of the urgency to fight first against the deficits.
For the Americans as to Europeans, the European event in Wroclaw ends with a disturbing sense of incompleteness, even for emergencies. The Eurogroup has pushed to mid-October a decision on payment of 8 billion euros to Greece. He did not reach an agreement on guarantees that Finland requires Greece.
This is doubly reassured investors that the deal the week. By Ben Bernanke's speech Friday, but ultimately the impact of lower than expected Hurricane Irene passed over New York yesterday.
Shortly before the start of the meeting on Monday in New York, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.11%, respectively, to 1187.50 points and 0.94% at 2184.25 points. The Dow Jones was meanwhile expected to rise from 0.82% to 372.5 points 11.
The reaction of U.S. markets to long-awaited speech of Ben Bernanke, head of the powerful U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), will eventually in two stages.A slight disappointment that quickly gave way to a clearer optimism which plainly overtime on Monday.
The Dow Jones above 11,000 points
According to analysts at Aurel BGC, the announcement by Ben Bernanke, a two-day meeting in September to study in detail the possible deployment of new monetary tools, reassured. "Either the recovery of economic activity is growing, or the central bank will implement new support measures, they summarize. Under these conditions, the U.S. indices rebounded sharply after the speech of Ben Bernanke. "
In fact, fell below the 11,000 points while the Fed chairman began to speak, the Dow finished at 11 284.5, up 1.2% on Friday night.A final increase, which encouraged European stock markets bounce back on Monday morning, except in London, closed due to holiday.
Two indicators will be stalked in the eye of investors on Monday, with, at 14:30, before the opening, income and consumption of American households for the month of July. It should show a slight increase. This will be followed at 16:00, the promise of home sales for the month of July, which are expected down 0.1% from a consensus of analysts, against 2.4% rise previously.
No major publication is expected on the business side.
Caution prevails at the Paris Stock Exchange on Thursday. After starting this crucial day for Europe in the green, the CAC 40 lost 0.63% to 3731.02 points an hour after opening. The London Stock Exchange lost 0.94% to 5844 points and the DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange loose 0.17% to 7209 points.
As with other global exchanges, all operators will have the eye to Brussels where to begin 1:01 p.m. at the extraordinary summit of the leaders of the euro area. They have an obligation to find a solution on a new plan of aid to Greece if they want to prevent contagion from the debt crisis. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday reached a common position on the new financial rescue plan and a private sector participation.The content of the agreement between the German Chancellor and French President was not specified but to do so, it took seven hours of talks "very tight" in Berlin, according to members of the French delegation.
The two leaders called on mid-term president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, to join them in Frankfurt, suggesting that the compromise has its support. José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission launched Wednesday a warning more serious than usual to the leaders of the euro area.
Obama confident
The announcement of the agreement led to a rebound in the euro against the dollar. The single currency is worth 1.4265 dollars in morning trading. Oil prices were also up, supported by market expectations of seeing the debt crises lead to solutions.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August took 28 cents to 98.68 dollars and that of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery took nine cents to 118.24 dollars.
United States, President Barack Obama received Wednesday several leaders of Congress and the White House has once again expressed confidence in a political solution to the crisis of debt before August 2, to avoid a default. "I expect us to find a solution," the president said in an interview with local TV KMBC Kansas City, renewing his call for compromises from both sides, whether its Democratic allies or his Republican opponents.
Rafale indicators
In addition to the meeting, the markets should observe the indicators that will be published on both sides of the Atlantic.In France, the composite PMI, which includes industry and services, is version 52.8 "flash" from 54.9 in June. "The financial crisis of 2008/2009 aside, the latest survey data suggest lower growth in overall activity since the third Gulf War in 2003," said Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit.
Activity in the private service also slowed against all odds in Germany in July to its lowest in two years, according to preliminary results of the survey Markit. The composite PMI stood at 52.2 in both "flash" against 57.3 in June.
United States, the day will begin with the weekly jobless claims. It will be followed index of home prices in the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the index of manufacturing activity Philadeplhie Fed, then the index of leading indicators.
China's manufacturing activity shrank in July for the first time last year, registering its largest decline in 28 months, according to preliminary PMI HSBC published this morning. PMI Purchasing Managers calculated fell to 48.9 against 50.1 in June, the lowest level for this indicator since March 2009. This new atmosphere was sealed on the Asian markets.
Values to follow
Banking
Banks eagerly awaiting the end of the EU summit. Their participation in the rescue of Greece is at the heart of the debates. Moreover, the institutions of the European Union will face fines of up to 10% of their net banking if they do not meet new international requirements for capital and liquidity, said Michel Barnier.
For now, Societe Generale (2.24% to 36.80 euros), Credit Agricole (1.92% to 8.98 euros), Natixis (1.50% to 3.24 euros), Axa ( 1.43% to 13.84 euros) and BNP Paribas (0.80% to 47.33 euros) are among the highest increases in the ACC
EADS: 0.10% to 24.81 euros
Airbus is ready to look "seriously" the increase in the production of single-aisle A320 to carry it beyond the already record a goal, but has not so far committed to this, its president said Wednesday Excecutive.
Eutelsat: 0.06% to 30.81 euros
The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) on Monday rejected a proposed takeover of Eutelsat joint push by the Spanish Abertis, reported Thursday the newspaper Les Echos.
The benefits of Publicis climb
Plastic Omnium: 5.23% to 24.76 euros
The Group expects a net profit in 2011 "strong growth" after a rise of 26% in the first half to 91.4 million.
Publicis: -3.75% to 36.42 euros
In the first half, the Group generated revenue of 2.7 billion euros in organic growth of 7.1%, exceeding the expectations of analysts whose estimates ranged from 6.2% to 6.5%.
Remy Cointreau: 3.97% to 60.51 euros
The group reported a turnover of 198.6 million euros in the first quarter organic growth of 22.5%.
Unibail-Rodamco: 1.48% to 154.35 euros
The group said it had signed for 1.1 billion euros of asset sales in the first half and accelerated its development plans after reporting an earnings growth supported by its recurring rental income.
Ubisoft: 4.97% to 6.21 euros
The group announced that its sales better than expected first quarter gross margin should support a few days after being heavily penalized by the stock market concerns about future profitability.
Mersen: 3.75% to 40.22 euros
The group released a turnover up 17% in the second quarter, supported by sales in solar activity, which is the group to provide a statement of objectives for the entire year.
APRR: -0.11% to 46.80 euros
The group announced it had recorded a traffic decrease of 0.8% in the second quarter 2011, impacted by the decline in light vehicle traffic.
Cegid: 0.05% to 20.90 euros
The group reported a 32% decline in net profit in the first six months of the year to 4.8 million, despite a 5% increase in sales. The publisher of management software specialist said that last year, accounts for the first half was boosted by a reversal of provision for risk.
Unions are in shock. When questioned by the free newspaper Metro, an employee of France Telecom, Louisa Amara, has been very complimentary on the social climate of the group. Having worked, according to France Telecom, for ten years as part-time call center – a function that the young woman does not specify in his LinkedIn profile – Louisa Amara joined for six months external communication of the company. A service headed by Christine Albanel, former Minister of Culture and Communication from May 2007 to June 2009. "This is a manipulation, says Sebastien Crozier, who was elected to the CFC CFE / UNSA. We demand the resignation of Christine Albanel. "
In the interview published last Monday, Louisa Amara said the group "no longer in the gloomy atmosphere that we knew. Over the past year, there is a much more active listening. "She also mentioned a greater "tolerance" for delays "especially for young mothers." A speech that contrasts with recent events in the group. Two months ago, an employee of France Telecom, age 57, ended his life in sacrifice. A new suicide was added to the fifties when the group faced between 2008 and 2010.
The group's management said it regretted "the confusion created by this testimony," but insists that the reporter from the Metro "was of course very clearly warned before the interview of the new features that Louisa has held for six months." He added: "It makes perfectly good testimony." On the side of the newspaper, it denies having intentionally caused discomfort.For everyday, it's "absolutely unintentional error, omission, and at no time did we say it is currently used within the call center."
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Baroin, the new Minister of Economy and Finance, has settled into the chair Thursday's sixth stage of Bercy, vacated by Christine Lagarde, to just under ten months. Ten months during which the presidential campaign in full swing. "In the job, there is an important part of teaching to do with the French on the reforms that have been made over the past four years at Bercy," said a relative of the head of state. Some have indeed been misunderstood – the tax shield has paid the price, others are little known because relatively techniques (such as business tax transformed into territorial economic contribution), some are finally gone unnoticed.
During this period, the records of funds will not be stored in the bottom drawers. The international situation will not leave any breathing space to the new minister.On Sunday takes place in Brussels for an emergency meeting of the Eurogroup to draw the contours of the second plan to provide budget support to Greece. If Baroin, as a former budget minister, has over the fingertips mechanics of public finances, it must now delve into the workings of international finance and meet his European counterparts to earn their trust . The task is difficult. Not only, as he jokes about himself, Baroin limited English proficiency, but more importantly, the aura of Christine Lagarde to the European ministers was such that his replacement will be hard pressed to eclipse. With a perspective view of the presidency of the G20 Finance in October.
Domestically, the schedule looks less busy.The major issues are already tied up (the stimulus of post-crisis reform of the ISF, the consumer credit, the research tax credit, business tax, etc.).. In addition to preparing the macroeconomic framework of the Finance Act 2012 which will be presented in September, is perhaps to give to the operation of the flat state as an owner … "Although the case of Renault now seems settled, President is still far from satisfied with the way some public enterprises are managed, "said a senior official.
Play it safe
Her replacement at the Department of Budget, Valérie Pécresse, for its part will continue efforts to straighten the path of public finances. The public debt increased by 54.9 billion euros in the first quarter, Insee said on Thursday, reaching the end of March 1 646 100 000 000, or 84.5% of GDP.Thursday, the new minister has promised to "stay the course". "These are decisive hours, the European economy is now scrutinized by foreign observers and the voice of France will be more heard that the state will keep its promises," she said.
No question therefore relieve pressure on public spending. The reform of the state, and its corollary, the non-replacement of an official two retiring, will continue. Indeed, Valérie Pécresse arrives at Bercy while the expenditure side of the Budget 2012 has already been decided. 30 401 jobs will be cut and the envelopes of the ministries will fall from 0.11%.
However, the revenue side remains to be determined. France has pledged in Brussels to raise 3 billion specimens in 2012.In addition, many public finance experts parliamentarians, as Gilles Carrez, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, to play advocate caution, cutting up to 6 billion in tax loopholes. The growth figures for the second quarter, known mid-August, will see more clearly and to decide the extent of the effort to do.
On Thursday, Valerie Pécresse was intended optimistic: "The growth is there and we will, hopefully, additional revenue allows us to be ahead of the planning law." A law which aims to reduce the public deficit 4.6% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013.
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The High Council of Audiovisual (CSA) has been patient, but he ended up pinning Direct Star, the chain of TNT acquired by Bolloré Media group Lagardere there just one year. The regulator has just sent a warning to the chain of free DTT Bolloré group has not met its obligations for the dissemination of European audiovisual and cinematographic works. The CSA, which has authorized the repurchase of the chain, was particularly careful to respect the commitments taken by the Bolloré Group.
Partner of major concerts
Christophe Sabot, the general manager of Star Direct chain, far from denying the allegations, said to "understand the position of the CSA." He explained that "since the purchase of the chain group Lagardere, a year ago, we intended to focus the antenna on the music and entertainment.The first step was to lock stocks Lagardère programs which were those of a minigénéraliste. Then, we needed time to find a new model and ask Direct Star on course. " A year ago, the chain then called Virgin 17 gathered 0.8% of the national audience. Today, its audience share increased to 1.2% in May, according to Médiamétrie.
Christophe Sabot today promised an overhaul of the grid to clarify the editorial. Direct Star is definitely a music channel, leaving a great place to live."We launched a tender to award six times for 90 minutes of music in 2012 and we have just signed with the four largest summer festivals – MainSquare the Eurockéennes the Old Ploughs and Musilac – for broadcasts direct. "
Direct Star, with a budget of fifteen million euros and should, as from September, increasing its funding, also will broadcast the upcoming July 14 concert giant SOS Racisme. "We will be under the Eiffel Tower to co-produce and broadcast the concert," says Christophe Sabot. For him, "no really direct competitor in this market music channels opens up new possibilities especially in the digital age since the chain is also present on digital since its inception as through its website as shelves, iPhone and social networks, "he says.
The government is intensifying the fight against fraud. That was the message you want to pass the budget minister, Baroin on Wednesday by making public the figures for abuse detected in 2010. In total, the state services deplored the loss of 3.4 billion euros, all public finance fraud combined.
In detail, it is tax evasion which, with 2.4 billion euros detected, most of the losses in 2010 deplored. Fraud in Social Security is in turn a much smaller portion (about 15%), the order of 458 million euros. A figure which Labour Minister Xavier Bertrand had already communicated, at the beginning, before the members of the evaluation mission and control of Social Security.
Progress remains to be done
'Significant results' achieved through improved quality controls, s'estfélicité Baroin. The mobilization of officers of this struggle, better coordination of actors and especially being able to pass files between different services (Banks primary health insurance, employment center, the family allowance), allowed, according to the minister, to detect even more abuse personal loan for poor credit.
It was on this last point that Baroin wishes to focus the efforts of the administration. "It's obviously in the field of the crossing of files that we want to progress. [We are moving towards] a centralized payment incidents or signs of fraud, "he advised. The aim is that such fraudsters once reported to be more regularly monitored.
Labour Minister, Xavier Bertrand, had already begun to turn in April last tougher penalties for fraudsters who abuse the social security system. "You have to apply and increase the existing penalties," he had tried to stop the "theft of the French."
However, progress is at hand. Members of the evaluation mission and control of Social Security in outline in the report they just make it public. According to their estimates, social security fraud would actually alone 10-20000000000 euros, of which three-quarters come from black labor. A figure that is breathtaking, when compared to the deficit of social security in 2011, estimated by the government 21 billion euros.
