New twist in the controversy over the health of European banks which opposes the IMF to European officials. The new CEO of the Fund, Christine Lagarde Wednesday held the first meeting of its Board of Directors of European banks. On this occasion, the Fund's economists presented their calculations indicate a probable equity gap of around 200 billion euros for all European institutions, the Financial Times. While European banks inscribed on their balance sheet obligations of States in the euro area market value, their tangible equity would fall from 10% to 12%, said the newspaper.
The newspaper stresses, however, that the amount shown in the "Report on the global financial stability", the traditional semi-annual report due on 21 September, is not final.These figures are obviously equivalent to those that led Christine Lagarde Saturday to encourage Europeans to recapitalize banks on the continent.
Analysis strongly opposed by European leaders. "The vision of the IMF is biased," said the Spanish Finance Minister, Elena Salgado, the FT, explaining that the Fund was wrong not to take into account potential losses without regard to assets Bunds, which saw During their ride. Wednesday, the Minister of Economy, Baroin, has in turn ensured that the French banking sector did not raise "no worries".Statements in line with those of the governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer and the president of MEDEF Laurence Parisot, who had followed the lead of European leaders as the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn.
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25% since January 1! The Swiss franc keeps on climbing against the euro. And the Swiss National Bank (SNB) seems powerless to reverse the trend. Since Aug. 3, the SNB intervened three times on foreign exchange markets to cool tensions. With a success all relative: the Swiss franc gained 3.92% versus the euro in two weeks. The Swiss franc remains "extremely overvalued," acknowledged Wednesday the SNB, after a massive injection of new cash.
For the economist Antoine Brunet, president of AB markets, the sudden popularity of the Swiss franc is a logical consequence of the crisis simultaneously by the two major reserve currencies such as the dollar and euro. In a context of European debt crisis and doubts about the U.S. economy, the Swiss currency has become a safe haven.Christian Ott, an economist at Natixis, the same refers to a study released Wednesday, as the "gold exchange market."
This assessment has multiple consequences for the Swiss economy which derives about half of its GDP to exports. Over half of these exports are made in the euro area, the strong exchange rate appreciation poses a serious threat to economic growth. "This is a great loss of competitiveness for Switzerland, which could suffer a downturn in its foreign trade," said Antoine Brunet guaranteed payday loans.
Index the value of the Swiss franc to the euro
The options available to the SNB is still limited. While prices fell 0.5% in the first half, "the central bank chose to fight the risks of deflation rather than to thwart the development of the housing bubble, which would have justified a higher interest rate" says Christian Ott.To resolve this dilemma, all monetary policy actions "unconventional" are possible. The Vice-President Philipp Hildebrand SNB even mentioned last week assumed to index the value of the Swiss franc to the euro. Put simply, "Switzerland could introduce a tax on capital inflows, as did Brazil," suggests Antoine Brunet. Or "a tax on deposits in Swiss francs of non-residents, as was already established in the 1970s."
For now, the government has opted to directly support the activity. He announced Wednesday a plan with a $ 2 billion Swiss francs. Export industries and those in the tourism sector will be the primary beneficiaries. A "task force" on the strong franc and its impact on the Swiss economy has also been established, the government said.
This time, the Fininvest will have to pay. The court sentenced him on Saturday appealed the group owned by Silvio Berlusconi to pay 560 million euros in the CIR group, owned by Carlo de Benedetti. The judges of the Court of Appeal of Milan have found that control of the publisher Mondadori, obtained in 1991 by Fininvest, to the detriment of the EIF through a favorable court decision, was made possible by the corruption of judge and lawyers involved. In 2007, the Criminal Justice had issued a similar notice, including the judge sentenced Vottorio Metta was stationed in nearly three years in prison.
On appeal, the Milan judges, however, have reduced the scale of the financial penalty, determined in the first instance to 750 million euros.Unlike 2007, the decision will also be immediately enforceable: Fininvest will address 560 million euros in damages without waiting for the trial to the Supreme Court that the group should seek. "Our lawyers are already beginning to study the complaint," has indeed responded Marina Berlusconi, the eldest daughter of the Head of Government and president of Fininvest. This assesses the amount of the penalty "to double the participation of Fininvest in Mondadori guaranteed fast personal loans."
Electoral setback and legal troubles
The Cavaliere had nevertheless worked hard to save the payment of such penalty to the group. Approaching the verdict, he did not hesitate to try to vote by Parliament an amendment to the Civil Code suspending sanctions in excess of 20 million euros on appeal, until the final decision of the court of Cassation.A measure to be adopted in the Bill ratifying the austerity plan. Faced with the outcry in the opinion of this measure, the Cavaliere has this week backed down.
This decision is more bad news for the chairman, who combines political defeats in recent months and legal troubles. Also implicated in the "Rubygate" Silvio Berlusconi suffered a severe mid-June electoral setback. The Italians have indeed overwhelmingly (over 94%) rejected four bills proposed by his government and put to a referendum: one devoted to the construction of new nuclear power stations, one on the privatization of water management by municipalities, and two providing legal immunity of ministers and the chairman of the board. Silvio Berlusconi, who announced Friday he would not stand in 2013, probably did not finish with the law.
"Nuclear power is one reason for the choice of France, not a choice of passion," said Eric Besson justified this Friday morning on Europe 1 radio. Recalling that the energy brought to France an "energy independence" and that it limited the emissions of greenhouse gases, the Minister of Industry, Energy and the Digital Economy has reported that "the certainty absolute "that electricity prices would be higher for the French consumer without nuclear.
The minister, however, announced that a "great foresight exercise", called "Energy 2050" was launched on Friday, "few hours". "We will study all possible scenarios (…) the energy mix for years to come."
No cases will be avoided, he said, "including so-called scenarios of nuclear power," even if "no belief" or "the choice of the Government and the President of the Republic." "To say 'out nuclear power', it means nothing, he said. What is interesting is to know where it is replaced, what consequences for the dependency [energy], how much it costs to businesses and consumers and with what consequences for greenhouse gas emissions. "
The program, which provides an "analysis of energy demand in France and the world" and "all sources of production" will be led by "the services of Bercy, with a number of experts and personalities independent, "the minister said without giving further details.
Fessenheim: no suspension or moratorium
Eric Besson has also confirmed that the Fessenheim nuclear power plant in Alsace will not be subject to suspension of its business, or a moratorium. "The Nuclear Safety Authority, which is totally independent of political power, EDF has given permission to stay in business for ten years subject to a number of works. So Fessenheim continue its business, "he added.
But he added that "Fessenheim be subject, like all French nuclear power plants in Fukushima post-audit," an audit requested by the government to learn from the nuclear disaster that occurred in Japan in March. "The nuclear safety authority may make other decisions," he said.
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From our correspondent in India.
The French Minister of Economy, Finance and Industry met Pranab Mukherjee, his counterpart of Finance in India, and on Tuesday she will meet with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It should also see Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Commission Plan. It is no coincidence. There are a few more days, Ahluwalia had been presented as a potential candidate from India. And why not, BRICS, the bloc of emerging economies that account Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Then the rumors were silenced. Officially, Montek Singh Ahluwalia would have exceeded the age limit for a candidate.In fact, Delhi has decided not to enter the race.
"The selection of the Chief of the IMF or the World Bank should be on the basis of merit, competence and transparently," Pranab Mukherjee launched after receiving Christine Lagarde. "Since the World Bank president has always been an American and a European director of the IMF, it would be logical to try to persuade the fund to elect now a candidate from a developing country, whose influence on the global economy is growing, "protested Anant Goenka, an economics professor. Continuing: "Why this silence (from India) while China, Brazil and South Africa are on the frontlines demand a change?"
Paradoxically, New Delhi does not seem interested in carrying the "Battle of the IMF."Defeatist, India? "You can say so, but the silence of Delhi shows that Indians are particularly realistic in this matter," says BL Pandit, director of the Delhi School of Economics. It is not a democratic election, the contribution of India to the IMF's reserves is not very high, and finally, everyone here thinks that games are made and, again, the position go to a European. " He acknowledged however that "things are changing rapidly" and that growth is changing latitudes, "it might be that the leaders of the Western world are considering share positions in international forums."
The Mexican candidate is expected Friday in India
At the last summit of BRICS in China last April, India had not been left to demand a reform of the Bretton Woods for emerging countries.In late May, when Dominique Strauss-Kahn had resigned, Manmohan Singh, who was visiting Addis Ababa, had stormed: "Reform of the Bretton-Woods is a priority for developing countries." He has since changed his tune. On the occasion of the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in late May, the leader of the Indian government said: "A prestigious position must go to the best candidate, regardless of nationality."
Friday, it was the turn of the Mexican candidate, Augustin Carstens, to come "courting" the Indians. The Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico would have already secured the support of Brazil. As for Christine Lagarde, she will travel to China. Beijing would be willing to support the French if they receive in return, the post of Deputy Director of the Fund at the end of the year.BRICS speak anyway no one voice since, the last G8 summit, Russia has already row behind Christine Lagarde.
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Unemployment in the eurozone has reached down to below 10% in February, a first for over a year. It amounted to 9.9%, against 10% in January (revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point from the first estimate), according to Eurostat. The unemployment rate in all 27 countries of the European Union amounted to 9.5% in February, against 9.6% in January.
"One point does not make a trend, tempers Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas. For several months we see a stabilization in unemployment in the eurozone, and we can only hope that the decline begins in the first six months of 2011. "In February, the resilience of employment in Germany, which decreased 6.5% to 6.3%, pulled down unemployment in the area.
The number of unemployed in the euro area amounted to 15.7 million in February, down 77,000 from the previous month."The unemployment rate the lowest were recorded in the Netherlands (4.3%), Luxembourg (4.5%) and Austria (4.8%) and highest in Spain (20.5 %) ", said Eurostat.
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The state lost less money than expected. The deficit amounted to 7% of GDP at the end of 2010, against 7.7% forecast in the government budget, INSEE reported Thursday. "It's really a remarkable achievement," responded the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, on Radio Classique. "France, very clearly, not only keeps faith deficit but goes beyond."
Even if the deficit is less bad than expected in 2010, it remains well above the limits allowed by Brussels (3% of GDP). As the debt reached a record level. Fueled by the deficit by 2010 and previous years, it rose to 81.7% of GDP.
If the deficit is better than expected, it is largely because state spending has decelerated sharply from 4.1% in 2009 to 2.1% in 2010.In constant euros, that is to say, excluding the effect of inflation, the increase is limited to +0.6%, welcomes Bercy in a statement: "This represents a significant inflection, well below the pace of average growth of 2.3% in volume over the past ten years. "
Expenses well controlled
"Social spending has been tightly controlled, health spending rose in line with expectations for only the second time in ten years and pension spending rose less than expected," Dominique Barbet analysis, economist at BNP Paribas.
This result is also explained by "a backlash effect, following the implementation of the Recovery Plan in 2009, and thus the automatic loss of spending in 2010, Insee said quick pay day loan."Social benefits slow (+3.4% after +5.5%), especially because unemployment benefits (after +8.1% +21.2% in 2009) and non-renewal of premiums paid in exceptional As part of the recovery plan, "said the French Institute of Business.
Better collection of taxes
On the other hand, the economic recovery has led to better tax collection. Revenues, after falling 3.8% in 2009, rebounded by 3.1%, but regain their pre-crisis level. This dynamic relation to taxes on income and wealth (+9.3% -16.5% after) or VAT (5.1 billion euros after -6.8 billion euros). The Government also welcomes a cost lower than expected business tax for the state, even if, INSEE said, it "translates into lower taxes on business."
Paris has committed to reduce to 6% in 2011, 4.6% in 2012 and 3% in 2013. The good performance in 2010 makes mechanically objective for 2011. "It seems likely now that the deficit will be lower than expected this year," said Dominique Barbet.
The budget for next year will be presented in mid-April before parliament before being sent to European institutions. Bercy promised on Thursday to bring the deficit "below" even 3% in 2013.
The green is still maintained at the Paris Stock Exchange on Friday. The CAC 40 connects a third round of consecutive increase, after surging 1.41% on Thursday. He advances from 0.21% to 3977.14 points in mid-day. In London, the FTSE rises 0.43% to 5906.41 points while in Frankfurt the Dax advance of 0.47% to 6966.16 points.
Operators are inspired by gains on Wall Street yesterday and this morning in Asia. But caution should however be appropriate when the problems of sovereign debt of countries of the European Union back to haunt the markets. Fitch and Standard & Poor's (S & P) lowered the rating of sovereign debt by two notches from Portugal, because of "increased political uncertainty" that has shaken the country since the resignation of Prime Minister Jose Socrates.European leaders are meeting just since Thursday in Brussels to find a way to fly to the rescue of the country and avoid a domino effect. They endorsed the night of Thursday to Friday a comprehensive system of defense against crises of debt that carries the actual capacity of the Fund's lending support to countries in the Eurozone in trouble from 250 to 440 billion euros.
The Japanese nuclear supervision
In addition, the Japanese nuclear situation remains worrying. This Friday, the operator of the plant in Fukushima, Tepco, said that the work of rehabilitation of the plant could take another month because of the difficulties encountered by workers to cool the reactors.
In Libya, fighting continued between armed forces of Colonel Gaddafi and the coalition forces.The NATO countries have agreed on Thursday to take command of military intervention and will next week over the coalition led by France, Great Britain and the United States.
U.S. GDP on the agenda
However, operators should carefully monitor the indicators of the day. On the menu this Friday:
– French GDP in the fourth quarter. Insee said Friday it has revised upwards to 0.4% growth in gross domestic product of France in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the previous quarter. A first estimate published on Feb. 15 gave an increase of 0.3%.
– The French consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected in March, returning to its level of last July partly because of fears about price trends, shows the monthly business survey released Friday by the INSEE .The composite indicator of consumer confidence has emerged after 85 to 83 in February.
– Money supply M3 in the euro area rose by 2% in February (+1.5% in January).
– The barometer Ifo business climate, the main index of business confidence in Germany fell to 111.1 points in March, ending nine months of increases in a row and a record high of 111.3 points in February, according to figures released Friday.
– Overseas, the trading day will be marked by the publication of the final reading of fourth quarter GDP (1330). The index of consumer sentiment in March will follow (2:55 p.m.).
As for currencies, the euro was stable against the dollar at 1.4166 dollars against 1.4168 on Thursday. On oil markets, a barrel of light sweet crude for May delivery yielded 3 cents to 105.57 dollars.That of Brent North Sea crude for May delivery gained 21 cents to 115.93 dollars. "Oil prices remain high due to geopolitical tension and underlying factors that support lessons, and this dynamic market seems set to continue," note analysts at Barclays Capital in a note.
Values to follow
Farm Credit: + 2.22% to 12.20 euros
Farm Credit has the highest increase of ACC on Friday, while BNP Paribas qu'Exane initiated coverage of French banks with a buy recommendation on the green bank.The analyst opinion adopted a "outperform" on the Crédit Agricole, with a target price of 16.70 euros.
Edenred: + 0.33% to 21.34 euros
Edenred the group's title, after the split in July with the Accor hotel group, continued his progress on Friday, still worn by various rumors about a possible takeover of the company or paying a special dividend. The work took more than 18.5% over the last five sessions
Eurazeo: + 5.03% to 55.75 euros
The group announced Friday the creation of value target of two billion euros by 2014, a goal that comes as the investment company just return to profit in 2010.Moreover Eurazeo and fund Colony Capital exclude launch a bid for hotel group Accor, which they together hold 32.79% of voting rights, to come into compliance with new regulations, said Friday Patrick Sayer, Chairman the Executive Eurazeo.
Schneider Electric: + 0.72% to 119.40 euros
The group announced Thursday it had acquired US Summit Energy specializes in services for Energy, for $ 189 million.
Lagardère: -0.45% to 30.03 euros, Vivendi: + 0.25% to 19.74 euros
Canal + will launch at the end of a free television channel, announced the CEO of the encrypted string in an interview with Le Figaro.
TF1 (-4.02% to 12.90 euros) and M6 (-2.52% to EUR 18) react badly to the news.
Lafarge: + 0.84% to 44.25 euros
Based on a review of the MFA, the Egyptian Sawiris family increased its shareholding in cement producer of over 14% in March.
EDF Energies Nouvelles: -0.53% to 35.75 euros
The group announced Thursday it had signed two contracts in Canada of electricity supply in 20 years with Hydro-Quebec for wind projects totaling 49.2 megawatts.
France Telecom: + 0.03% to 15.69 euros
Polish operator TPSA its announced Thursday it had sold its subsidiary Emitel $ 1.7 billion zlotys (423 million euros) at the bottom of Montagu Private Equity.
The Bel Cheese must publish their annual results this Friday.
The war of the taxis Avignon button does to an end? According to Le Parisien – Aujourd'hui en France published on Tuesday, the low-cost airline Easy Take was removed by the board of registration Trump France, the national tourism agency. Since January 2010, twenty company vehicles transporting clients in Avignon and the surrounding reservation. To lower prices, the company uses advertising space on cars and on screens inside. Result: Racing sometimes two times less expensive than those charged by taxis in the city, which has aroused the discontent of taxi drivers in Avignon.
In early March, nearly 900 drivers have organized an operation snail in the center of Avignon to protest the "unfair competition" Easy to Take. The unions accuse the new taxi company does not comply with the law by practicing marauding Easy Take denies that.In the context otherwise difficult, low-cost airline would, in their view, a decrease of 30% of their business.
According to Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, the registration committee relied on four PV prepared by the police from Avignon to revoke the license of "passenger cars with driver" Easy to Take. The Kangoo society would neither comfort nor the identification of this category of vehicles and in fact exercise the profession of taxi.La decision should be applied upon publication in the Official Journal.Easy Take states, meanwhile, had "received no official document" and "not knowing what [he] is accused."
One of the two licenses already lost
Already on Monday night, Take Easy confirmed to have lost his license for "passenger cars with drivers" but indicated another to keep 'road passenger transport, which enables it to carry at least two people. This activity represents, according to the company, 97% of its turnover. "We will therefore rely on our second year and perhaps not to transport people only for a short period", told AFP Rotureau Elsa, spokesperson for the company.
The loss of the second license would, this time, the death knell of the ambitions of Easy Take reported that it invested one million euros to start. The Court of Appeal of Nîmes is also making its decision on April 19.The union of taxi drivers asked of Vaucluse to order the cessation or prohibition of exercise of Easy Take.
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As on Wall Street Thursday, investors are reluctant Paris. After playing all day in the red, the CAC 40 is the road to recovery in the afternoon. An hour of closing, the benchmark index of the Paris Stock Exchange returns to balance and slowly gaining 0.05% to 4015.30 points. The threshold of 4000 points, which had secretly escaped the markets to 13 hours, was saved.
The index in Paris lost somewhat less than 4% since the beginning of the week. "This cons-performance is justified by the need for investors to breathe and to find new entry points, after the CAC 40 has risen sharply since the beginning of the year, Barclays says Renauld Murail Exchange. In addition, it broke several technical support (4013 points in particular).
Having "ignored" the events in Tunisia, preferring to focus on the good macroeconomic indicators or satisfactory business results, financial markets adopt the opposite behavior with Libya. "We spent a higher level," says Renaud Murail. The confrontations are more violent and especially the country exports 80% of its black gold to Europe, especially Italy. " Exports, however, that Libya has temporarily interrupted.
The big question is the extent to which lower levels of the CAC 40 will continue."If the political crisis in Libya does not spread to Saudi Arabia, Algeria or Iran, this does not justify the CAC 40 index goes below 3950 points," says portfolio manager Barclays Exchange.
Temporary suspension
The day was also marked by a trading halt due to unexpected technical problems. For nearly three quarters of an hour, investors have made a good scare.
"This is an incident related to the calculation of changes in European indices of NYSE Euronext (index levels), says it at NYSE Euronext. It has however had no impact on trading. " On Tuesday, the Milan Stock Exchange was suspended for six hours for "technical problems".No reason had been advanced.
On the stock market in Frankfurt, the Dax lost 0.99% to 7123.31 points and the FTSE-100 from the London Stock Exchange was down 0.23% at 5909.67 points.
Announced unemployment down sharply in January
About unemployment, which figures will be released at 18 hours, the Labour Minister, Xavier Bertrand, assured that he would be in sharp decline for the month of January.
Moreover, consumer sentiment remained stable in February to 85 points and remains "well below its long-term average, said Thursday the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE).
For the euro area, the confidence index of entrepreneurs and consumers in February was unveiled in late morning: Economic sentiment restarts up to 107.8 points.
United States, enrollment in weekly unemployment benefits declined again during the week of February 13 to 19, according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department in Washington. The number of unemployment claims is thus increased to 391,000, against 413,000 the previous week.
In addition, orders for durable goods rebounded sharply from 2.7% in January from December, seasonally adjusted data, according to the index of the ministry, whose increase is consistent with the median forecast of analysts.The ministry has revised down its estimate of 1.9 percentage point decline the previous month to 0.4%.
By contrast, sales of new single relapsed in January by 12.6% from December, seasonally adjusted data, the ministry said, adding that it was their sharpest drop since May.
On the currency markets, the euro continues to gain ground against the dollar, quoting the single currency in mid-session 1.3772 (+0.16%).
Oil is approaching $ 120 in London
A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for April delivery was just under $ 120 Thursday around 10:00 at 119 business cards design.79 dollars, before retreating, supported by the unrest in the Arab world, including Libya, a major producer black gold.
Credit Agricole + 4.25% to 12.27 euros
Credit Agricole posted Thursday a net profit in 2010 increased 12% to 1.263 billion euros, despite a loss in the fourth quarter due to an impairment charge.
France Telecom: -2.10% to 15.85 euros
France Telecom on Thursday posted a 2010 turnover of 45.5 billion euros, up 0.6% excluding regulatory measures, while its net profit also rose to 4.88 billion, in line with analysts' expectations.
The board of directors of the telephone company has formalized Wednesday, the eve of the publication of annual results of the group, the appointment of Stephane Richard as CEO from 1 March 2011.
Saffron: -0.76% to 24.71 euros
The aerospace and defense OEM French Safran announced Thursday it made a profit adjusted net up 29% in 2010 and is optimistic for 2011 with the objective of increasing its operating income by at least 20% .
Supply: Washington will decide
Edenred: -1.56% to 18.89 euros
The prepaid industry, Accor, Edenred, reported Thursday a net profit of 68 million euros for 2010, against a pro forma net loss of 57 million euros a year earlier.
Vallourec: -4.19% to 74.40 euros
Vallourec 2010 results on Wednesday declined due to lingering effects of the crisis on its activity and said that its margins are under pressure in the first half of 2011.
After the publication of disappointing results on Wednesday, Accor fall of 4.34% to 32.43 euros.
Dexia: -2.99% to 3.12 euros
Dexia announced the results below expectations in 2010 but maintained its financial targets for 2014.
EADS: -0.34% to 20.78 euros
The Pentagon is expected to unveil Thursday its decision on the mega contract for refueling tankers to the U.S. Air Force, for which the U.S. aviation giant Boeing and Europe's EADS are competing for several years.
Air France postpones Paris-Tripoli
Air France-KLM: + 1.46% to 11.79 euros
Air France-KLM has decided to postpone until further notice the opening of its Paris-Tripoli, scheduled for March 29 because of the situation in Libya, said the airline.
Vilmorin: -0.89% to 87 euros
Vilmorin has confirmed its full-year after a first half marked by a reduced loss from one year to another through the bond of its activity.
Ipsos: -1.45% to EUR 34
Ipsos has announced plans to increase its operating margin to 11% and do better than market growth studies expected 5% in 2011, having exceeded its targets for 2010.
Award: Successful debut for Jemini
Technicolor: -1.29% to 5.19 euros
Technicolor announced Wednesday it had received a firm offer for the activities of headends from Grass Valley, balances and its assets in the subsidiary being restructured and terminating its program of asset disposals. The group is in advanced talks with Orange to build its next generation of decoders in France.
Jemini: + 13.85% to 8.30 euros
The specialist licensed products, Jemini, lists on Alternext Thursday.
In meeting, Crédit Industriel et Commercial release its quarterly results.After market, it was the turn of Thales, Saint-Gobain, Valeo and Eiffage present their annual results.
Gecina: -1.03% to 89.47 euros
The property company has announced that its recurring earnings continue to decline in 2011 mainly because of an increase in the burden of debt. Recurring profit before tax fell by nearly 6% in 2010 to 327.4 million euros and the company expects a decline of 7% in 2011.
