Worrying trend reversal. After several months in the green, indicators of wage guarantee scheme (AGS, the employers' organization which pays wages and severance payments of bankrupt firms) have almost all switched back into the red the first three months of this year. A result of concern that does not bode well for the situation of companies in the aftermath of the second round of the presidential election

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The AGS notes and "the provisional figures of the first quarter 2012 (ended March 31) already indicate an increase in the number of bankruptcy." No fewer than 4,000 cases have been opened between early January and late March, representing a significant increase of 6% compared to first quarter 2011. The AGS, which is funded by a mandatory contribution of 0.3% of payroll for all companies, still observed a decrease of about 15% of openings in bankruptcy late last year ….. ……

This observed increase of 6% in early 2012 is identical in terms of the number of backup procedures and recorded the number of beneficiaries. So that 12-month rolling the number of employees who received the AGS rose 0.2%, to be around 265,000 people. As for the total amount advanced for a year (wages, notice and / or indemnities companies in backup procedure and then declared in liquidation / receivership), it has also advanced 0.3% to reach almost 2 billion euros. Only positive of this blackboard of the French economy, the amount of recovered debts from businesses assisted (AGS is repayable advances) rose sharply, by 3.3% in annual development. It now stands at almost 700 million euros.

Essentially TPE

There is however little change on the size of companies that use the backup regime. This is still an overwhelming majority of small establishments. Less than 10% of collective proceedings opened in 2011 were indeed concerned companies over 20 employees. More than eight out of ten cases treated were for companies with fewer than 10 employees.

According to data as of March 31, the Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur, Ile de France and Aquitaine still focus 40% of backup procedures started rolling 12 months. The AGS note, however, "significant increases" the number of procedures in the Pays de la Loire, in Picardy, in the Midi-Pyrenees or in Lorraine.

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Not a word has filtered out of the conversation between Nicolas Sarkozy and PSA boss Philippe Varin. For nearly an hour, the two men met at the Elysee about the factory in Aulnay-sous-Bois in Seine Saint-Denis. The future of this plant, which employs over 3,300 people, would be threatened, unions fear. The presidency as the automotive group has declined to comment on leaving the meeting.

Nicolas Sarkozy wanted to convince Philippe Varin to organize a roundtable discussion with unions and industry minister, Eric Besson, "next week" to discuss the future of the site. A request of the unions, the president-candidate met Thursday at his campaign headquarters.

"All done" to save the plant

Nicolas Sarkozy said on Friday, on the antenna of i-TV: he will "do anything to save this plant." For him, it must "ease the burden on the wages of employees and the contributions of the company." He recalled that the business tax that has weighed deleted "250 euro per car manufactured in France." "It's fine to say that the cars must be manufactured in France, but if you put on in France making more taxes than elsewhere, there is a relocation," he concluded.

The unions said they were somewhat reassured after their head to head with Nicolas Sarkozy. "The words we hear a lot, but the words fly away, we want it written guarantees, said Jean-Pierre Mercier, the CGT. We play our skin. "And not just employees of PSA 9000 with direct and indirect jobs, PSA Aulnay is one of the largest employers in Seine-Saint-Denis, according to the General Council.

The record of the Aulnay plant is back on center stage last weekend. The unions had then expressed their disappointment after a meeting between employee representatives and management organized by the prefect of Seine Saint-Denis. But the concern of unions as of June 2011 and the disclosure of internal working documents of the automaker speculating a closure of Aulnay. Unions fear that the decline in production will continue and lead eventually to a cessation of activity on this site.

"We want to continue working"

In recent months the government has stepped up operations in the industrial thorny issues. Latest success, the recovery of the carrier Sernam by Geodis. In the case of Peugeot, the unions are skeptical, as expressed by Jean-Pierre Mercier Thursday: "We all know that the management of Peugeot expects the presidential and legislative elections to officially announce the closure of this factory, we are unwilling not die, we want to continue working. "

Announced the surge does not occur. With complete freedom of movement since 1 May 2011, workers from eight Eastern European countries have not crossed the German border en masse. To the chagrin of a country in need of labor.

Last spring, there was a lot of hope and concern. The bosses were rejoicing the arrival of a highly skilled labor force required, the unions were alarmed competition for low wage costs. Frank-Juergen Weise, head of the Federal Employment Agency, estimated at 140,000 the number of workers from the East who would cross the German border. A year later, in an interview with the Rheinische Zeitung, there were fewer than half, 61,000.

Since 1 May 2011, nationals of eight countries of the European Union (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia) have the right to come and work freely in Germany and Austria. "It's a pendulum swing of history, Timo J. Bass, of the Institute on the labor market (IAB). We Germans, who need so much labor and skilled young, we shot in the foot. "

When Europe has expanded to twenty-seven members in 2004, Berlin, Vienna and Brussels had negotiated with a further period of seven years to fully open their labor markets payday loan. Meanwhile, workers from the East who want to improve their living conditions have already emigrated. Location: England, Ireland, Scandinavia and Switzerland, with more attractive salaries.

Wages less attractive

Germany, however, suffers from the image of a country with low wages and poor career prospects. "Employers also require a perfect knowledge of the German language," says Timo Bass. In the globalized market and highly competitive "Best Minds" Germany is a party with several lengths behind.

Today, the sketch of immigrants came from Eastern Germany is Poland (67%), works at a temp agency or in the building sector, in one of the richest regions of the country as Bavaria. Those who cross the border rather are those who do not find work at home. Therefore: competition weighs more on low wages.

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Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

• Transfer taxes: 3.8 billion per year

Transfer taxes, a tax paid by households when buying their homes, would be halved in case of acquisition of the principal residence. According to the institute, this measure will generate a shortfall of 3.8 billion for counties and municipalities which are the current beneficiaries of the transfer taxes. It points to the difficulty of measurement (as distinguished primary residence and secondary). The entourage of Nicolas Sarkozy him figure the gross cost of the measure between 2.5 and 3 billion.

• Parental leave: 2.2 to 4,400,000,000 per year

The UMP candidate wants to relax parental leave. Its duration would remain up to three years, but it could be taken up until 18 years of the child, and not until he was 3. The cost of the measure is high but the range projected by the Institute of the company is large, the challenge is to anticipate changes in behavior: how many parents of children aged 3 to 18, with no " exhausted "their three years of parental leave, they will benefit from this new opportunity that will be offered.

• Unemployed older: 500 to 900 million annually

Nicolas Sarkozy promised the abolition of fees for hiring seniors in long-CDD or CDI of an unemployed person over 55 years, indefinitely. The encryption is based on an assumption of 35,000 beneficiaries per year (the team UMP is 50,000 to 60,000) and a reduced for 400 to 700 euros per month (higher than that chosen by the candidate's entourage).

• Contributions of craftsmen: 250 to 425 million

A craftsman is making any profit in the year 1700 euros to a demand of social contributions. The outgoing president wants to eliminate this floor to stick strictly to contributions proportional to income that is paid. The Enterprise Institute calculates a cost of between 250 million (corresponding to figure put forward by the applicant) and 425 million.

• Biometric Carte Vitale: 54 to 81 million euros per year

So far, the photo used on maps Vitale is simply sent by post. The additional cost, estimated at 15 euros per card, come from the need for staff to receive insured on site – in town halls, for example – check their identity and make their prints. It does not include a grant to the hundreds of thousands of health professionals so that they equip themselves with fingerprint readers (around 100 euros per enclosure).

• CIR: zero cost

Rather than being repaid after two years by the tax authorities, the research tax credit (CIR) would receive an advance by OSEO as a zero-interest loan "for small businesses that innovate ". An operation to "zero cost at cruising speed."

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The French are discouraged before they even take steps to resolve a dispute. It is thought that nine out of ten surveyed by Ipsos for the first edition of the barometer Axa legal protection. Justice remains an unknown for most of them: 80% do not know who to turn to know their rights, and 97% believe that the justice system is difficult to understand.

Worse, seven out of ten French think they have no financial means to defend themselves. Godsend for the legal protection insurers, which offer information in their contracts, and if necessary support – within limits – of legal fees. According to the Ministry of Justice, the cost of resolving a dispute is on average 200 euros for the costs of bailiff, 500 euros for an amicable and 1500 euros to cover attorney fees for a procedure .

Family, an area seldom covered by insurance

The French think that the main sources of conflict are employment, housing and the Internet. In fact, the most common disputes relate primarily to the housing (25%), led by neighborhood problems and relations between landlord and tenant, and Internet purchases (24%). Relations with the employer is not a priority (23%).

Numerous disputes also affect the field of family (divorce, inheritance …). But legal protection insurers rarely venture in this field. Axa Protection legal disputes of this nature are supported only if the client has signed the contract the more upscale, costing between 140 and 300 euros per year, much higher than a domestic contract classic (63 euros per year).

The insurer, like others, offers customers a hotline: a lawyer tells them about their rights and answered their questions. This service receives 175,000 calls a year. The insurer sees submit 36,000 new claims per year, most amicably resolved.

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CEO of the Caisse des Depots since 2007, Augustin de Romanet takes stock of his term as head of the financial institution publique.Il defends a vision of long-term, theme also of his book, "Not to thirty painful" , to be published next month by Plon.

LE FIGARO. – March 2007-March 2012, your tenure as head of the Deposit has been essentially that of crisis management?

Augustine ROMANET – The first thing I did upon arriving was to establish a strategic plan, the first for twenty-five years! This plan was conceived before the outbreak of the crisis, which was a chance: we had in effect given to this house a solid foundation and then through the turbulence. If the five years of my term were five years of crisis in the Deposit, then this is the etymological sense: krino, reinte? Prevention.

How have you adapted to the CDC this time of crisis?

In 2007, it was obvious that the economy of debt had reached its limits. We have defined ourselves as a long term investor, a term that might seem strange. It was taken by the Act of August 4, 2008 and came into common parlance. The mission of the Deposit is one that expresses its social utility, the provider of capital to long term, the first in the country through its various tools. We also have modernized the governance of the institution for its action is no longer subject to suspicion.

The bailouts of Dexia, the down payment in the Post, the interventions of the Strategic Investment Fund (ISF)? CDC does she not done too much, at the expense of financial security?

No. The Deposit is not weakened. Its capital is now greater than 2 billion euros to what it was in 2006. However, they are now just below the level set by the supervisory model, which has just been arrested. This means that the CDC must make choices. Through the savings fund, it is the largest financer of social housing. It will become a major player in financing local government, with the Post Bank. It is the largest investor in the territories, the majority shareholder of ISP and 26% shareholder in the La Poste group and 27% of OSEO. It will be a key player in the Greater Paris, through Icade and Egis. She manages on behalf of the State 8 programs of large loan? It is not a vision that eluded him.

Does the ISP also been at full strength? The state or parliamentarians might have wished that more intervention. Did you have to refuse certain files?

The debates were sometimes harsh. But at no time, as chairman of the board of the ISP, I had to put the state in the minority. We always found a consensus. The interest of companies brought together the State and the CDC in this tool is an outstanding success.

Beyond the ISP, what were your relations with the state?

They are reminiscent of rugby: it's not because the contacts are honest and manly that it is not a sport of gentlemen fast cash advance. That the Deposit respects the State, it is natural, but the state also met the Deposit during these five years.

The CDC will announce she losses for 2011?

No. It will be beneficial, probably close to 200 million euros, despite the loss of Dexia. This is good news. I add that no longer exists on the balance sheet of the institution any impairment that would have been deferred.

How Dexia Will it cost in total to the CDC? Do you have any regrets about the management of this file?

The Taking-is not coming. Dexia maintains a value, and I will not speculate on his future today. Regarding the past, even if mistakes were made, I refuse to take the easy way of anachronism, to rewrite the history of Dexia before his first save of 2008. And I assume, for having sustained the strategy? CARRYING since.

You were a candidate for a second term. How did you feel the decision of Nicolas Sarkozy not to renew?

Probably because I am attached to this institution, I felt this moment with surprising emotion, as I had convinced myself that I did not own my post. The decision, I always say, is the President of the Republic. So I did not comment on it. I leave calm, and proud of the work.

CEO of the Caisse des Depots is a political post?

Yes, of course! In the best sense. The policy, it is the duty of the synthesis of opposing views in search of general interest. It is also the action. At the Deposit, which combine the financial strength, the diversity of stakeholders and quality of staff, the task is exhilarating.

Are you running for the leadership of CNP Assurances?

I have personally expressed to each member of the Appointments Committee.

As a director of Veolia Environnement, were you in favor of the appointment of Jean-Louis Borloo at the head of this business? Have you supported the approach of Proglio who also chairs the Nominating Committee of NPC?

I resigned from the Board of Veolia on February 29. The suspicion that some sort of Faustian pact with Proglio is unfounded and insulting to him and for me.

What recommendation would you give to your successor?

Research of general interest means being responsive to all stakeholders of the company, the actors of the social economy to the leaders of the CAC 40, the elected leaders of rural communities to SWFs the planet, it should be remembered that they manage resources to invest in our country.

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Car sales in the U.S. reached their highest level in four years last month. Nearly 1.15 million vehicles were sold, 15.7% higher than February last year, according to figures from Autodata firm. The latter states that annualized seasonally adjusted, this represents 15.1 million vehicles. The most since February 2008!

While gasoline prices rose 10% in February compared with January, the fuel efficient cars are spared Thurs Toyota, for example, recorded better results than expected with sales up 12.4%, with an increase of 52% for the Prius and 60% for all of its hybrid models of all brands. Figures from other Japanese manufacturers are also very well oriented: Honda saw its sales rise 12.3% to 110,157 units and Nissan from 15.5% to 106,731 vehicles.

For his part, General Motors, which has just completed an agreement with the French PSA, recorded 1.1% growth in sales year on year to 209,306 vehicles. This figure exceeds expectations, while leaders of the global market leader company provide a good year in 2012. The Chevrolet brand door activity, while sales of its big Cadillac erode by 27%. Ford sales up 14% year on year, reaching 179,119 units, with a doubling of sales for the Focus. Those of Chrysler, the number three in the U.S. market, even soar by 40%, to 133,521 vehicles. The group controlled by Italy's Fiat said it is the 23rd consecutive month of sales, with a growth rate exceeding 20% ​​for nine consecutive months cash till payday.

Market shares redistributed Chrysler start, GM back

With the surge in sales, the Chrysler brand has seen its U.S. market share grow to 11.3% against 9.6% last year. Conversely, that of General Motors declined to 18.2% against 20.8% a year earlier, as Ford has eroded to 15.5% against 15.7%, while Toyota was down to 13 , 9% against 14.3%, while Honda was down 9.6% against 9.9% and Nissan remained stable at 9.3%, according to data from Autodata.

Common to all manufacturers: their optimism for the coming year. Besides the economic upturn, they emphasize the need for replacement of vehicles in which the average age is high.

"If gasoline prices continue to rise, people will perhaps reduce their discretionary spending, but if employment improves, they will need to buy cars to work," noted Jenny Lin, Ford economist. For his part, Don Johnson, GM, concludes: "We do not believe that short-term fluctuations in gasoline prices will stop rising sales of GM and the industry in a better position that three years ago. "

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"Robert Peugeot:" The alliance with General Motors is history "

After a week of rumors, the announcement is, this time, official: the General Motors made its entry into the capital of the French group PSA Peugeot Citroen, according to an official. GM takes and 7% stake in PSA, which carries a massive increase in capital of around one billion euros. GM is now the second largest shareholder of the French group behind the Peugeot family.

The alliance will focus on platforms and components and provides a joint venture in purchasing. The first vehicles from a common platform GM-PSA will be marketed from 2016. Expected synergies from the two manufacturers totaled $ 2 billion annually within five years.  

This alliance gives rise to a powerful global industry leader with over 11 million vehicles sold per year worldwide.

First French carmaker, PSA is currently experiencing serious financial difficulties. Its net debt rose in 2011 from 1.2 billion to 3.4 billion euros. Leaded by Europe, sales of Peugeot and Citroen fell 1.5% last year while the global market progressed by 3%. The group announced last October a comprehensive plan of saving 800 million euros that could cause the elimination of 4,000 positions this year saving account pay day loan.

With his new partner, the Lion brand will achieve greater flexibility for financial resume investment as an upmarket in Europe and the creation of a new plant in India.

GM weighed down by its European subsidiary Opel

For his part, General Motors has certainly taken over in 2011 the title of world number one Automotive Japanese automaker Toyota. But the American could benefit from expertise of PSA to finally leave the red Opel, its European subsidiary. It announced in mid-February to have lost $ 747 million in 2011.

Peugeot confirmed Feb. 21 that he "consider [ed] the cooperation projects and alliances (…) as part of its globalization strategy and performance improvement." Without specifying with whom, but rumors already evoked release of GM. Last night, the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) had called PSA to communicate "as soon as possible" on the alliance, while multiplied rumors of a capital increase.

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Dispute between experts around the social VAT. Valérie Pécresse, the budget minister, expects the measure to create 75,000 to 120,000 jobs. Nicole Bricq, the rapporteur of the PS budget to the Senate, believes that the decline in employer contributions, coupled with recovery of 19.6% to 21.2% VAT and the rise of the CSG on savings, will at best 30,000 jobs. And, at worst, destroy 40,000. The Senator had to defend its position in the Senate Wednesday night, when reviewing the draft supplementary budget including introducing VAT and social tax on financial transactions. A review which promised rapid, left, majority, having decided to reject the text of a block rather than amend the clause by clause.

To achieve these numbers, Nicole Bricq reasoning in two steps. She said the VAT increase will cause a price increase of 0.5% to 0.7%. This additional inflation weigh on consumer spending, resulting in the destruction of 120,000 positions. Meanwhile, the decline in employer contributions will create between 80,000 and 150,000 jobs. Hence a total balance disappointing.

"The cuts decided by the Government target salaries between 1.6 and 2.1 minimum wage, so skilled workers. Companies hire these workers when they need their expertise. The issue of cost is secondary. As a result, reductions have little incentive effect on the hiring decision, "Nicole Bricq reasons. She said it was to hire unskilled workers that cuts costs may have a strong effect.

A Keynesian model dated

At Bercy, an estimated economic models selected in previous official reports, listed by Nicole Bricq, are based on reasoning "Keynesian" obsolete, making the consumer the only engine of growth possible. The government counters that it is precisely to encourage competitiveness and thus growth in exports.

The executive wanted to target anyway wages very practiced in the industry, in order to reduce labor costs. Nicole Bricq replied that the loss of competitiveness of French industry does not come from labor costs but an innovation problem. That's why she regrets that the capital budget for the future, focusing on research, has been punctured billion to mount the store industry.

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