The Greeks want to leave their countries in crisis, but it is not seen in official statistics."Based on preliminary figures available, we observe no increase in emigration in Greece in 2010," notes Jonathan Chaloff, migration expert at the OECD, based on information provided by the U.S., Australian, Canadian or Swedish. "There is indeed a great desire to emigrate, but the obstacles are real: the language barrier, recognition of qualifications, etc..," Said he.

More border, more control

This is not the only reason why migration flows are difficult to perceive. "Young Greeks are mainly the countries of the European Union," Lois Labrianidis point, Professor of Economics at the University of Thessaloniki."But as there is no boundary or control, you can not count these departures." The researcher is a hint: the Greeks entered in the European Internet portal EURES CV exploded in 2011, reaching 15,500, two times the total recorded since its inception in 1993.

Young people fleeing a country they consider no future. "The dynamics of the labor market is worrying. The unemployment rate reached 16%, up 50% from 2010. And for young people is twice (30%), "notes Manon Domingues Dos Santos, migration specialist at the University Paris-Est Marne-La-Vallée. "In this context, the most qualified are the most mobile: they speak foreign languages ​​and better meet the needs of labor in host countries."

The crisis accelerates a phenomenon of brain drain that affects Greece for at least 10 years.At the edge of recession, in 2007, already 12.2% of the most educated Greeks living abroad, or at least 876,000 people. This figure is just swell: already during this period, more than 4.5% of graduates were leaving Greece every year, according to figures compiled by Frédéric Docquier, a professor at the University of Louvain. This is much less than Portugal (over 12%) but almost twice as Spain, also in crisis countries. In comparison, only 1.31% of French graduates leave the country.

Herding phenomenon

View from the best-trained its elites to broader horizons, such is the fate of small countries like Ireland or Lithuania. "Greece, however, could prove to be a special case, said Frédéric Docquier. It is in near-bankruptcy.They may therefore develops a herd phenomenon: if the elites and the most qualified anticipate the crisis and with rigor, everyone will leave the country when you leave you too. "

Problem: well-trained elites are among the taxpayers most likely to pay high taxes. Leaving their country, they will not settle the affairs of the state. In the longer term, "the departure of more skilled threatens growth by detracting from the production of research and innovation," Manon Domingues Dos Santos is concerned.

Greece, which was over twenty years, between 50 and 70 years, a land of emigration, however, tries to take advantage of its diaspora. The government has proposed this year to Greeks abroad to finance its debt to the tune of 3 billion euros.

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But the strengthening of the CDC, regarding the Club Med, a symbolic value. Between the public institution and the flagship of the French tourism, relations have always been close. In 2009, when Club Med was jostled by Bernard Tapie and various takeover rumors, the Deposit had dam, committing to purchase if necessary to a capital increase, finally buckled from other investors.Today, with 5% of the round, the CDC is involved in the consolidation of the company led by Henri Giscard d'Estaing.

Strategy carried out in several stages. Last year, the highlight had been the arrival of the Chinese Fo Sun, also a partner in the Club in the Middle Kingdom. The Deposit and Management of Morocco, also an industrial partner, is also installed in the capital. The French Caisse des Depots, for which tourism is a strategic activity, also maintains links with the business club, which it funds such as the site of Valmorel.

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The next step should come from Brussels. The European Commission said Friday that it would present "in the days to come" proposals for a coordinated recapitalization, which should help to reassure markets worried about the resilience of the European banking system to the crisis. It could soon make its findings on Monday.The European Banking Supervisors (EBA) should also provide estimates of the impact of a sharp depreciation of the Greek debt on bank balance sheets.

With these data in the hands of the leaders arrive for summit of the European Union and the euro area provided 17 and 18 October in Brussels. They will then give a "clear signal" on the subject, said Angela Merkel. The idea is to display a "consensus" on the amount and schedule for building banks' capital. For we must recognize that, as regards the amounts, blur still dominates: the figure of 100 billion to inject capital is the most commonly cited, which is much less than 200 billion euros mentioned a few days ago even by the IMF free business cards.

The next step in the operational implementation of the European financial stability should have been ratified by all parliaments by mid-October: Malta decides before Monday Slovakia on Tuesday. Aid to Greece will be released.

"Acting quickly"

Throughout this long process, Europe should remain under pressure. In recent days, Obama has returned several times to the load on the resolution is too slow for his liking of the crisis in the eurozone. European leaders must "act quickly," pleaded the U.S. president, hoping that a "very concrete plan of action" would be presented.He believes that the crisis in Europe could have a "very real" in the United States.

For her part, Angela Merkel last week has dampened hopes for a reform of the international monetary system from the G20, saying the work on this subject will not be completed. But the Cannes summit will probably be enough to do with the subject of the European crisis.

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After weeks of dithering, European leaders have taken in hand to avoid a collapse of the banking sector, weakened by the debt crisis, which brought down the French-Belgian group Dexia.The markets were also reassured by the publication of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. exceeded expectations: job creation in the private sector and the ISM services.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday to maintain its 1.50% interest rate, reference the cost of credit in the euro zone, despite the sharp deterioration in the economic and financial crisis.

Meanwhile official figures of employment for the month of September in the United States to be published Friday, new jobless claims are slightly lift the United States during the last week of September, according to figures released Thursday in Washington by the Department of Labor.The Ministry has identified the deposit of 401,000 applications for unemployment benefits in the country from September 25 to October 1, adjusted for seasonal variations, or 1.5% over the previous week, which is consistent with the estimate of analysts.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro reached 1.3435 dollars (0.65%). On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 82 personal loans for bad credit.59 dollars, up 2.91 dollars compared to the previous day.

Apple has resisted despite the death of Steve Jobs

As for values, investors will have their eyes on the technology sector.

• Apple (-0.23% to 377.37 dollars) will remain particularly observed after the announcement of the demise of the group's founder Steve Jobs.

• Yahoo (-1.70% to 15.65 dollars) is the subject of new rumors of a possible bid from U.S. computer giant Microsoft, which had already in 2008 attempted to seize the group's internet America.

• Hewlett-Packard (4.99% to 25.05 dollars) should not make further major acquisitions in the software after the acquisition of Autonomy, according to statement from the group's new boss Meg Whitman cited by Reuters.

• Boeing (2.54% to 61.48 dollars) has received an order for $ 1.1 billion from Ethiopian Airlines for four Boeing 777 freighters.

• Gilead Sciences (1.28% to 39.65 dollars) has obtained a license agreement Boehringer Ingelheim for the exclusive rights to research, development and commercialization of an anti-integrase for the treatment of HIV.

• Marriott International (2.13% to 28.78 dollars) issued for the third quarter, earnings per share of $ 0.29, up 32% year on year. Turnover was 2.9 billion dollars against 2.6 billion last year. The revenue per available room key indicator in the hotel sector grew by 8.7% on a comparable basis, while prices rose by 5.3%.

The European Commission highlights the paradox between a cleaner gasoline and cheaper duty-sold more expensive at the pump, and diesel more expensive duty free, massive source of emissions of fine particles hazardous to health, and less expensive for motorists. She said outside the UK, the tax treatment of petrol and diesel in Europe is "flawed" and needs the overhaul.

Concern

For manufacturers, the news comes at the worst time.These are already working on the application in 2014 of Euro 6, which calls for reducing carbon emissions and fine particles. This standard requires them to implement expensive technology on diesel vehicles that will increase the price of these cars from 1500 to 2000 euros business cards design. What scare away customers. If in addition the price of a liter of diesel were to increase significantly, the diesel car market could collapse.

The Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers believes that the introduction of this directive in France could lose 20 points of market share on the sale of diesel cars. In the columns of Paris, its president, Patrick Blain, worried: "The decline in production in French factories (on the cutting edge in the field of diesel, ie) would inevitably have social consequences," he warns.

Professionals and individuals may also choose to get rid of their cars too expensive, which could lead to plummeting prices of diesel cars. "It may be possible to adopt transitional measures that will leave everyone time to adjust," said he.

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For the economist Antoine Brunet, president of AB markets, the sudden popularity of the Swiss franc is a logical consequence of the crisis simultaneously by the two major reserve currencies such as the dollar and euro. In a context of European debt crisis and doubts about the U.S. economy, the Swiss currency has become a safe haven.Christian Ott, an economist at Natixis, the same refers to a study released Wednesday, as the "gold exchange market."

This assessment has multiple consequences for the Swiss economy which derives about half of its GDP to exports. Over half of these exports are made in the euro area, the strong exchange rate appreciation poses a serious threat to economic growth. "This is a great loss of competitiveness for Switzerland, which could suffer a downturn in its foreign trade," said Antoine Brunet guaranteed payday loans.

Index the value of the Swiss franc to the euro

The options available to the SNB is still limited. While prices fell 0.5% in the first half, "the central bank chose to fight the risks of deflation rather than to thwart the development of the housing bubble, which would have justified a higher interest rate" says Christian Ott.To resolve this dilemma, all monetary policy actions "unconventional" are possible. The Vice-President Philipp Hildebrand SNB even mentioned last week assumed to index the value of the Swiss franc to the euro. Put simply, "Switzerland could introduce a tax on capital inflows, as did Brazil," suggests Antoine Brunet. Or "a tax on deposits in Swiss francs of non-residents, as was already established in the 1970s."

For now, the government has opted to directly support the activity. He announced Wednesday a plan with a $ 2 billion Swiss francs. Export industries and those in the tourism sector will be the primary beneficiaries. A "task force" on the strong franc and its impact on the Swiss economy has also been established, the government said.

Friday night, the country experienced a further escalation in the standoff between Democrats and Republicans, they refused to comply with the requirements of President Barack Obama.The Democrats call indeed now $ 400 billion of additional tax increases. A change of position is unacceptable, according to John Boehner, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives, while the two sides had previously agreed to a ceiling of one trillion dollars in additional tax revenue to reduce debt further Atlantic. Saturday evening, the President was therefore convened in emergency to four White House officials Republicans and Democrats in Congress for a new emergency meeting. But no more successful in negotiations, after 50 minutes of discussion.

Do not scare investors

The inability of both sides to agree on tax revenues and budget cuts necessary leads the U.S. on a slippery slope.Besides the risk of degradation by the rating agencies of their sovereign rating, the status quo would cause panic on world financial markets, barely recovered from the fears of the risk of contagion from the crisis of the Greek debt to other countries Europe.

U.S. officials are well aware, those who now wish to reach an agreement by Sunday evening before the opening of Asian markets. Rebuked by President Barack Obama, Congress pledged Saturday to present a plan to reduce the deficit within 48 hours to push the risk of lowering the country's sovereign rating. The fact is that beyond the tax revenues, the issue of budget cuts expected to be a problem. Democratic side, the president believes that the 1.6 trillion cuts represent an offer "extraordinarily fair".Republican side, these efforts remain insufficient to John Boehner, who wishes to bring to 3 trillion budget savings over 10 years.

Critical deadlines

Given the failure of talks between the president and elected officials of both Houses, the compromise could eventually go through further discussion within Congress. This Sunday, "the leaders of the Senate and House have agreed to return to Congress to speak to their groups and discuss the way forward. The conversations will continue all day "has said Jay Carney, spokesman for the president. For now, no new summit meeting is scheduled with Barack Obama, but on the other hand John Boehner also called for an early agreement.If a common ground on removing the ceiling on debt seems likely, no party could only be satisfied with this short term solution, and discussions on the reduction of public spending should be more difficult. One observation that seems to share Timothy Geithner.

On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary said that there would probably agree to a two stages, first raising the debt ceiling and so that an agreement on spending cuts and a second stage of higher taxes and reforms. Whatever the timing adopted, it was also described as "unthinkable" that the United States do not meet their debt obligations.And as Barack Obama, who does not want thorny issue of the debt rose to the surface during the election year ahead, Geithner wants to avert the threat of a default for at least 18 months, but less than 10 days of the deadline of August 2, the time is now very critical.

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The market's attention will focus on the evolution of the European agenda to discuss aid to Greece and parliamentary discussions slipping in the United States, about raising the debt ceiling. After Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, the U.S. President, Barack Obama has assured last night that "the time for decisions has come."Barack Obama will hold a press conference to take stock of the subject at 17 hours, Paris time.

A very technical session for

The news should be sparse on the side of the values ​​on Friday, but the session promises to be lively because of the expiration today of a battery of forward contracts.

Investors remain concentrated in Paris after the close for 18 hours to read the results of resistance testing in the European banking sector. Among the 91 banks assessed in connection with these third annual stress tests, are the French BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Natixis faxless pay day loans.

The automotive sector will also be in order on Friday, after the presentation of the number of registrations in Europe in June, which shows a decrease of 8.1% over one year.Over the first half, the market decline is limited to 2.1% with 7.12 million passenger vehicles registered.

The gold on top, the euro remains strong

Values ​​could be exporting to the death, after a further rise of the euro, which traded this morning, 1.4166 dollars, against 1.4141 dollars last night, while the dollar was stable against the yen. The euro is also strengthening against the Japanese currency at 112.15 yen.

In the current environment of heightened uncertainty about the public debt in Europe and the United States, gold is looking for: the metal-King reached a new record yesterday to 1594.45 dollars. It flows back slightly this morning.

Similarly, relaxation can be observed on the future of Brent North Sea (-0.22% to 116.09 dollars per barrel). In contrast, light crude gained sweed 0.24% to 95.92 dollars a barrel.

More good news received by the markets, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States came out up to June reflected an acceleration in activity, while analysts had forecast a further slowdown.Also signs, as Asian investors, the slowdown in world's largest economy, drawn by a series of disappointing statistics in recent weeks, would in fact be temporary.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index ahead 1.4%, to 10,003.90, breaking the psychological threshold of 10,000 points, he had abandoned two months ago, May 5 This good news came from overseas mainly benefit exporters, including, Honda (3.2%) and Toyota (1.7%). For its part, the specialist electronics Panasonic clinching 1.2%.

In China, in this context of widespread optimism, the announcement yesterday of a decline in the PMI services in the Middle Kingdom is passed almost unnoticed. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it fell from 61.9 in May to 57 June, within the scope of monetary policy more strictly local.Not enough to shower the good mood in Shanghai, where the CSI 300 ahead 2.25%, to 3118.44 points while the Hang Seng of Hong Kong wins more timidly 1.82% to 22,806 points.

On other financial markets, the Taiwan TAIEX Index advances 0 free credit score.53% at 8785, 71 points, while in South Korea, the KRX's 100 biggest advance values ​​of 1.27% to 4568.44 points. In Australia, the S & P / ASX 200 rose 0.74% to 4625.10 points. Finally, India and Singapore stock exchanges are also in the green, the BSE Sensex and the FTSE Straits Times advancing 0.79%, respectively, and 0.69%, to 18,911.60 points and 3160.76 points.

The election results pleased investors in Thailand

In Bangkok, the victory Saturday in the legislative elections of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of former prime minister in exile, Thaksin, has generated euphoria in the markets. The SETI Bangkok jumped 3.52% to 1078.15 points.Although new to politics, the first woman to lead this country in Southeast Asia has the aura of his brother, who leads the opposition from Dubai. Monday, the Thai army accepted the landslide victory of the opposition, already trying to consolidate a comfortable majority with the support of minority parties.

Oil prices were on the upside Monday in electronic trading in Asia after the green light from EU ministers on the release of aid for Greece. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August took 20 cents to 95.14 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for delivery gained 19 cents to equal 111.96 dollars.

On the currency front, the gradual easing of tensions on the financial position of some European countries did not take long to emerge, largely repeating the euro against the yen and the dollar.At 1:00 Paris time, the euro was worth 117.71 yen against 116.85 yen the day before, and 1.4529 dollars, against 1.4494 dollars the previous day.

During this period, the records of funds will not be stored in the bottom drawers. The international situation will not leave any breathing space to the new minister.On Sunday takes place in Brussels for an emergency meeting of the Eurogroup to draw the contours of the second plan to provide budget support to Greece. If Baroin, as a former budget minister, has over the fingertips mechanics of public finances, it must now delve into the workings of international finance and meet his European counterparts to earn their trust . The task is difficult. Not only, as he jokes about himself, Baroin limited English proficiency, but more importantly, the aura of Christine Lagarde to the European ministers was such that his replacement will be hard pressed to eclipse. With a perspective view of the presidency of the G20 Finance in October.

Domestically, the schedule looks less busy.The major issues are already tied up (the stimulus of post-crisis reform of the ISF, the consumer credit, the research tax credit, business tax, etc.).. In addition to preparing the macroeconomic framework of the Finance Act 2012 which will be presented in September, is perhaps to give to the operation of the flat state as an owner … "Although the case of Renault now seems settled, President is still far from satisfied with the way some public enterprises are managed, "said a senior official.

Play it safe

Her replacement at the Department of Budget, Valérie Pécresse, for its part will continue efforts to straighten the path of public finances. The public debt increased by 54.9 billion euros in the first quarter, Insee said on Thursday, reaching the end of March 1 646 100 000 000, or 84.5% of GDP.Thursday, the new minister has promised to "stay the course". "These are decisive hours, the European economy is now scrutinized by foreign observers and the voice of France will be more heard that the state will keep its promises," she said.

No question therefore relieve pressure on public spending. The reform of the state, and its corollary, the non-replacement of an official two retiring, will continue. Indeed, Valérie Pécresse arrives at Bercy while the expenditure side of the Budget 2012 has already been decided. 30 401 jobs will be cut and the envelopes of the ministries will fall from 0.11%.

However, the revenue side remains to be determined. France has pledged in Brussels to raise 3 billion specimens in 2012.In addition, many public finance experts parliamentarians, as Gilles Carrez, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, to play advocate caution, cutting up to 6 billion in tax loopholes. The growth figures for the second quarter, known mid-August, will see more clearly and to decide the extent of the effort to do.

On Thursday, Valerie Pécresse was intended optimistic: "The growth is there and we will, hopefully, additional revenue allows us to be ahead of the planning law." A law which aims to reduce the public deficit 4.6% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013.

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