A debt crisis could lead to another. The Greek fire is not yet off the government needs to rush to the bedside of local authorities and their bank moribund, the sulfur Dexia. Not a week goes by without a large community calls upon the State to the rescue. At least 200 cities, councils, hospitals and housing associations are home loans on their books "toxic" with huge interest rates have put their finances at risk. Listed, some heavyweights as Saint-Etienne, Marseille, Grenoble, but also the urban community of Lille and the General Council of Seine-Saint-Denis. To reopen the tap credit to communities that provide 75% of the investment in the country, the government had to address the problem urgently Dexia.Will this be enough there?
Last month, the government has activated for the first time a special support fund created in late 2010 for the departments in need. The beneficiaries are seven departments (six rural) whose debt is massive, and revenues, almost entirely absorbed by the distribution of welfare. Hitherto considered the spoiled children of decentralization, regions require the State to review the financing of rail, now they consider "untenable" for their budgets low interest rate personal loans.
The alarm level is reached. In ten years, spending communities have increased by 60%, and local taxes, 45%! These figures are staggering.Whose fault? A lax politicians and poor managers who prefer to treat their customers (36,000 hiring officials last year when the state removed 34,000 positions)? The lack of political will of the state, hostage to local barons? Bankers incendiary? To have the heart net, Le Figaro Magazine has plunged into the accounts of local authorities, was shelled and analyzed partnered with the Thomas More Institute and Public Evaluation System.Inspiring!
"Cities: heat stroke on taxes (pdf)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (the Ain to the Haute-Garonne)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (the Gers in Puy-de-Dôme)
"Departments: the weight of social spending (in the Pyrenees-Atlantique to Val d'Oise)
"Region: always a sacred way of life
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"In the trap of toxic loans
Wall Street earnings increases, on Thursday. After opening slightly higher, U.S. financial markets concluded the session by increases above 1% for the third consecutive time. The Dow Jones took 1.68% to 11,123.33 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.88% to 2506.82 points and the S & P 500 gained 1.83% to 1164.97 points.
After weeks of dithering, European leaders have taken in hand to avoid a collapse of the banking sector, weakened by the debt crisis, which brought down the French-Belgian group Dexia.The markets were also reassured by the publication of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. exceeded expectations: job creation in the private sector and the ISM services.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday to maintain its 1.50% interest rate, reference the cost of credit in the euro zone, despite the sharp deterioration in the economic and financial crisis.
Meanwhile official figures of employment for the month of September in the United States to be published Friday, new jobless claims are slightly lift the United States during the last week of September, according to figures released Thursday in Washington by the Department of Labor.The Ministry has identified the deposit of 401,000 applications for unemployment benefits in the country from September 25 to October 1, adjusted for seasonal variations, or 1.5% over the previous week, which is consistent with the estimate of analysts.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro reached 1.3435 dollars (0.65%). On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 82 personal loans for bad credit.59 dollars, up 2.91 dollars compared to the previous day.
Apple has resisted despite the death of Steve Jobs
As for values, investors will have their eyes on the technology sector.
• Apple (-0.23% to 377.37 dollars) will remain particularly observed after the announcement of the demise of the group's founder Steve Jobs.
• Yahoo (-1.70% to 15.65 dollars) is the subject of new rumors of a possible bid from U.S. computer giant Microsoft, which had already in 2008 attempted to seize the group's internet America.
• Hewlett-Packard (4.99% to 25.05 dollars) should not make further major acquisitions in the software after the acquisition of Autonomy, according to statement from the group's new boss Meg Whitman cited by Reuters.
• Boeing (2.54% to 61.48 dollars) has received an order for $ 1.1 billion from Ethiopian Airlines for four Boeing 777 freighters.
• Gilead Sciences (1.28% to 39.65 dollars) has obtained a license agreement Boehringer Ingelheim for the exclusive rights to research, development and commercialization of an anti-integrase for the treatment of HIV.
• Marriott International (2.13% to 28.78 dollars) issued for the third quarter, earnings per share of $ 0.29, up 32% year on year. Turnover was 2.9 billion dollars against 2.6 billion last year. The revenue per available room key indicator in the hotel sector grew by 8.7% on a comparable basis, while prices rose by 5.3%.
The euro fell more than 7% over the month against the dollar. The European currency has just gone below the $ 1.33. This violent collapse is due to the political and financial unrest affecting the euro area. There is now a consensus among strategists providing a further correction. "The state of the market reflects the near certainty that Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to cut rates before the end of its mandate" in late October, said John Kicklighter, strategist at DailyFX, a subsidiary of the giant FXCM currency. "It could be that the repurchase of government bonds continues. If these scenarios are realized, this would be very bearish for the euro. "
The bell sound is little more optimistic in. The experts of the French subsidiary of the Danish bank focused their attention on the delays of politicians."Speeches are encouraging to reassure the markets a while but in the absence of concrete solutions, the downward trend should continue," they said in a note sent to clients. The same applies to the specialists of the broker, "no concrete steps have been taken and so it has not been made, the euro will continue to r suffered."
Repatriation of capital in dollars
With the strong underperformance of European markets, investors, especially American, have reduced the share of assets invested in European equities. The repatriation of capital cause lift the dollar against the euro.
The downward spiral is likely to continue in the fourth quarter. Earlier this year, Saxo Bank had made a bet of one euro to 1.15 dollar. This goal seemed absurd end of April (the euro now approaching $ 1.5) no longer is.In any case, the euro could be worth between 1.20 and $ 1.25 at the end of the year. In this zone, the euro would only return to its value in purchasing power parity further point out the experts. Some exporting companies that have had the good sense not to cover may already be rubbing their hands. This is the case in particular that benefits both an aircraft carrier cycle and a decline of the euro against the dollar.
It seems that the era of the strong euro against the dollar is behind us. For individuals, it is possible to speculate down on the euro-dollar by selling the currency pair in cash in a currency broker. It may also be wise to buy put options or put options due in March (for example). This strategy can multiply its earnings but does concern a limited part of a portfolio.The current movement is also favorable to purchases of dollar assets (U.S. real estate, stocks on Wall Street …).
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Coffee breaks should be shorter now for the employees of Goldman Sachs in New York. In recent days, in fact, they have at their disposal coffee cups smaller than normal. The bank, which has embarked on an extensive program of savings $ 1.45 billion in mid-2012, estimates that reducing the size of the cups 35 cl at 29 he will save "thousands of dollars ". In the same vein, the machines "cashless" (to recharge with cash cards can be used to pay vending machines) are becoming increasingly rare in buildings. According to Goldman Sachs, it will pay less armored car to transport the money raised.
Other banks, Wall Street stars, also address their operating costs.The offices are less green and Morgan Stanley, which decided to cut the budget plant. "Every dollar not spent is a dollar that can be used for growth," says her boss wisely James Gorman. Bank of America canceled several expensive meeting, while Barclays will strictly monitor the bill for business phones for its employees.
Bonuses reduced and job cuts
More importantly, the impressive bonus paid out to employees at year end should be reduced. Although for the moment, the cumulative 65.69 billion dollars, set aside for this purpose in the first half by Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, do not show it yet. In recent await the end of the fourth quarter before taking any decisions about it.
Saving measures will also affect employment installment payday loans.Goldman Sachs cuts and positions could not be about 3% of the workforce (1,000 people), as expected so far, but 5% of the total. Bank of America will eliminate 30,000 positions, JPMorgan Chase 3000.
A disastrous quarter
The time has come for U.S. investment banks to tighten their belt after a disastrous third quarter. The very poor stock market performance of major Wall Street banks over the period, characterized by loss of 16% to 49% over the period, illustrate the phenomenon.
The reason: the pressure around the debt crisis in Europe affects the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic, the new cases of mergers and acquisitions and bond below the 2008/2009 levels, and economic slowdown in the U.S. and the euro area.Not to mention the always present impacts of the subprime crisis.
Symbol difficulties, Goldman Sachs is expected to announce on 18 October, its worst quarter since going public 12 years ago. The consensus of analysts now speak of an earnings per share of $ 1.35 (against 2.65 dollars a month ago), a loss of profitability of 50% over the year. Some even refer to a quarterly loss that the bank would be its first episode since the Lehman Brothers in 2008.
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"SPECIAL CRISIS: fear of debt
Since the beginning of the week, investors in Europe and the United States, is won over by a wave of optimism about the outcome of the crisis of sovereign debt. The CAC 40 jumped 5.74% on Tuesday to finish the session at 3023.38 points, aligning a third straight session rebound. Another encouraging sign is the trading volumes are recovering. Yesterday more than 4 billion changed hands on the great values of the Paris stock exchange.
Other major European markets rose in unison. The Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange gained 5.29% and 4.02% London FTSE. And the European indices, the Eurostoxx 50 was up 5.06%. "The anguish of Greece, who were greatly exaggerated, have finally subsided a bit," said one operator.A Wall Street as investors watch with great attention the developments of the rise of public finances in Europe, the relief was also needed. Sitting in the Dow Jones advanced 2.27% and the Nasdaq 2.18%.
"Investors have decided to give credit to European and international policy makers in their efforts to find ways to resolve the crisis of sovereign debt," explained economists broker Aurel BGC. There are "high hopes that one is engaged in the right direction towards resolving the debt crisis in Europe," agreed analysts at LBBW in Frankfurt. Other analysts, however, want to caution, as the strategists of the Crédit Mutuel-CIC who believe that the upturn may not last and that the rumors that stir the markets are certainly still "exaggerated."For them, the hypothesis of the expansion means the European support fund for countries in trouble (EFSF), which propels the securities of banks for several days, "does not solve the structural problems in Europe."
According to the spokesperson of European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn, Europe is considering strengthening the capacity of the European support fund for countries in trouble (EFSF). Rumors press also reported a proposed quadrupling of the Fund's lending capacity to 2000 billion euros. In turn, an official of the ECB, the Austrian Ewald Nowotny, did not rule out declines in interest rates in the euro area.But soon, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble assured that Europeans had "no intention of bailing out" the EFSF and called the hypothesis of totally "stupid."
Absent for several weeks, the good news poured in yesterday from Europe and the United States.
On the Old Continent, first. Jean-Claude Juncker, the leader of the finance ministers of the euro area has confirmed the return of the troika, bringing the European Union, the ECB and the IMF, major donors of Greece, by Thursday Athens, which could allow the release of a new tranche of EUR 8 billion, which is vital for the country. At the same time discontent rises and Athens was again paralyzed Tuesday by a wave of strikes in public transport.
Good news also in the United States, in the still under close surveillance of the property.House prices in the twenty largest U.S. cities have stabilized in July, according to Case-Shiller survey.
In Paris, banking stocks, on the front line since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis, have literally flown the hope of a breakthrough in the situation in Greece.
Societe Generale, had a spectacular end of the session, jumping nearly 17%. For its part, BNP Paribas was awarded 14.15% and Credit Agricole was up 13.10%.
Oil opened up in New York
The euro was weakening on Tuesday to below $ 1.35. In session, the euro stood at 1.3496 dollars, against 1.3523 dollars late Monday.He had fallen in session Monday to 1.3363 dollars, its lowest level since mid-January, prior to recover.
As for commodities, gold has recovered slightly this morning at 1640 dollars an ounce after declining over the last three sessions. Oil evolved soaring Tuesday at the opening in New York, driven by renewed optimism for the determination of the Europeans to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery traded at 82.64 dollars, up by $ 2.40 at the close on Monday night.
While the member Franck Riester delivered Monday Valérie Pécresse its second report on "improving the numerical relation to the user," the budget minister is determined to increasingly facilitate the administrative users. It offers users to respond to 15 new proposals to improve e-government. Users can provide feedback, respond and comment on the website set-simplifions.fr
Already, Valérie Pécresse asked the Directorate General for Modernization of the State to work on five priorities:
1 – Developing for priority services, personalized assistance to users during the process online (telephone, email, chat).
2 – Offer the user evaluation surveys on the Internet or mobile at the end of any administrative process.One way to take into account the voice of users and improve services according to their reactions.
3 – 5 Launch pilot projects on social media in the areas most relevant to the user: health, human services, education, employment and culture.
4 – Offer a mobile application offering users a personalized list of deadlines and the status of its efforts.
5 – Allow the user to present to the administration's vouchers via their mobile phone with a flash code (income tax, electricity bill and telecom).
While this report confirms the strategy implemented by the government in 2010, Valerie Pécresse welcomed the tangible results already achieved.
* 160 public websites have been consolidated or eliminated to improve the readability of the presence of the state line.End of 2011, the volume of websites of the state has been reduced by 50%. For greater efficiency.
* 2.5 million users have opened an account on the site mon.service-public.fr steps online.
* 76% of administrative procedures expected by most users have been dematerialized.
* The mobile phone version of the portal administration is now available (m.servicepublic.fr).
Car manufacturers ultra-luxurious living on another planet. The downside risks, of concern to general groups, do not seem to disturb them. Concessions in the Ferrari, "consumers are not worried about a recession. The last I saw did not look desperate, "said Sergio Marchionne, the CEO of Fiat, at the Frankfurt Motor Show.
The Prancing Horse brand also provides for a new record this year by selling 7,000 cars, against 6,570 last year. Ferrari is also counting on a profit before tax "significant", following an increase of 23% in 2010 to 302 million euros. "I'm not worried because we have quality, exclusivity, a strong brand and innovative technology," said its president, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo.
It is the only one to be extremely confident.Rolls-Royce (BMW Group), whose boss, Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes, said he was "optimistic" about prospects for its niche, also wants to exceed its historical performance of last year (2711 cars). The luxury brand will invest 11.4 million euros to expand its plant in Goodwood English and plans to increase its network from 85 to 100 outlets.
Buyers richer
Sales of the major European luxury brands (Maserati, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin) are expected to jump 19% this year to 28,100 vehicles, and increase by 13% in 2012, according to a study by IHS Automotive no checking account payday advance. "The rich are becoming richer, and the number of millionaires in emerging and growing. It is a very positive trend "for specialists in this niche, says Erich Hauser, an analyst at Credit Suisse agency quoted Bloomberg.For him, "should things go really bad" for the champions of this market find themselves in difficulty.
The ultra-premium segment should be able to pass through an economic downturn better than in the previous crisis, which saw sales of certain brands to collapse, says the CEO of Rolls-Royce. "This market is growing steadily since its low point in 2009" but "we are aware that there are risks," acknowledges, however, Stephan Winkelmann, Lamborghini's boss. But for now, the Italian brand of the Volkswagen group does not seem to fear a decline in the purchasing power of its wealthy clients. It will produce 20 Sesto Elemento for early 2013. Their price: 1.6 million euro.
The Paris Bourse pauses on Thursday, after a session that saw the CAC 40 jumped more than 3.5% beyond 3000 points. The benchmark index of the Paris Stock Exchange began the day on a stable note, down from 0.08% to 3070.58 points. On other European exchanges, the movement is the same. London lost 0.08% while Frankfurt climbed 0.08%. As in Asia this morning, traders expect the set of indicators of days before taking a position. Unlike previous days, the agenda will be very busy in the U.S. and Europe.
In the euro area, the eyes will be on the ECB. Earlier this afternoon, President Jean-Claude Trichet, will make an announcement on rates. Unsurprisingly, they should remain at current levels, at 1.5%. But markets are waiting above him to book his views on the problems of sovereign debt.For now, it's time for calm on that front. Yesterday, the German Constitutional Court was reassurance by confirming plans to aid in the euro area. In France, the deputies approved the second bailout of Greece arrested on July 21. They are the first to start this procedure. The Italian Senate last night gave a green light to the first austerity plan of over 52 billion euros from the Berlusconi government, while Spain adopted its fiscal rule of thumb, as desired by Paris and Berlin.
The U.S. employment under the microscope
United States, several indicators of the health of the economy will fall during the session. Among them, the trade balance, weekly jobless claims and oil stocks.The consumer credit will be available after market in Europe.
Two discourses are also highly expected on Thursday, those of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama. The Fed chief will speak at around 19 am, French time, the Economic Club of Minnesota. Investors await details about how the Fed intends to support the economy. This intervention will follow the publication yesterday of its Beige Book, which again reported a moderate growth. For his part, Bush will speak on Congress to 1 am, French time, on employment and growth. It should detail a plan for employment that would reach $ 300 billion, raised yesterday by the U.S. media.
In France, growth in employment has slowed
In France, INSEE announced that the dealer paid employment decelerated in the second quarter.Principally market sectors have created a total of 33,300 jobs over the period April to June, from 78,300 in the first three months of the year, an increase of 0.2% against 0.5% the previous quarter.
The trade deficit widened further in July, reaching 6.46 billion euros in seasonally adjusted data, weighed down by a rebound in imports, Customs officials said Thursday.
On the currency side, the euro fell again to 1.4063 dollar.Oil, he, rising as a result of the prolonged interruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storm: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 41 cents to 89.75 dollars a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery takes 18 cents to 115.98 dollars in morning trading.
Values to follow on Thursday
• Banking
Stress tests imposed on European banks have made "transparency and clarity" on the strength of their balance sheets, said Wednesday night a Treasury official in the United States free credit report and score.
Banks react well. Among the largest increases are CAC, Societe Generale (2.01% to 19.77 euros), BNP Paribas (1.94% to 32.25 euros), Credit Agricole (0.97 to 5%, 80 euros), Axa (0.80% to 10.10 euros) and Natixis (0.55% to 2.55 euros).
• EADS (-0.85% to 21.69 euros)
The group is ready to dip deep into a war chest of $ 16 billion (11.3 billion euros) to finance its expansion in the U.S. and is in preliminary discussions with several potential targets, said Wednesday its chief executive for North America.In addition, the European missile manufacturer MBDA, in part by EADS, would be forced to reduce its workforce by 400 jobs by 2015, according to La Tribune.
Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, is also considering a third increase its production capacity in one of its scenarios for 2018 to meet demand, the success of the A320 Neo scarce slots delivery before 2020, The Tribune reported Thursday.
• TF1 (0.87% to 10.43 euros) and EuropaCorp (stable at 3.29 euros)
The two groups announced Wednesday the signing of a Framework Agreement for development to produce the series in English for television.
• Ipsos: -1.36% to 27.13 euros
The group has launched a capital increase in cash of approximately 200 million euros to finance the purchase of Synovate.
• GDF Suez: -0.22% to 20.44 euros
The group will transfer to the Italian ENI participation of 10.4% in gas fields in the North Sea to pay off debt, reported Thursday Les Echos.
• Technip: 2.06% to 67.25 euros
In consortium with National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC), the group won a contract worth about $ 500 million for engineering, procurement and construction of the project Satah Full Field Development, a field located 200 km northwest of Abu Dhabi (UAE).
• Sanofi: 0.54% to 50.19 euros
Genzyme, the biotechnology laboratory of the U.S. bought by the French group, was unable to deliver its drug Fabrazyme in August, although it promised to doctors and patients to meet this deadline. U.S. regulators have made public Wednesday letters from Genzyme dated August 26 and 25 where the laboratory apologizes to its customers and for people with Fabry disease, a rare genetic disease, for "any confusion and disturbance "caused by the delay.
• France Telecom: 0.37% to 12.19 euros, Vivendi: -1.06% to 15.89 euros
The new tax passed by the government as part of the new austerity plan should give priority, penalize these two groups, according to Les Echos. France Telecom should be paid to these measures between 300 and 500 million.Vivendi would see him, his taxes increased from 250 to 400 million.
Next recommendation goes to Credit Suisse under-performance against neutral Ipsen (-0.41% to 22.85 euros). Societe Generale goes with the purchase of Biomerieux (2.09% to 71.40 euros).
Pens, binders and notebooks just sold, the aisles are already crowded with bottles of wine. Casino at the wine fair began yesterday, Carrefour, Monoprix and Leaderprice follow today. The stakes are high for retailers: the event is about 10% of their annual sales within that radius.
While retailers feared a drop in consumption, the 2011 is again under the sign of exclusive regional, but especially low price. "More than six out of ten bottles will be offered to less than 6 euros," explains Stéphane Cathelain, head of wine fairs in the Casino Group stores (excluding Leaderprice, Franprix and Monoprix). The distributor, which doubles the operation of a fair whiskey, playing more than any other card of its private label wines with a score of "Club des Sommeliers Grand Reserve" a total of 450 brands, from 2 euros.
At Carrefour, the entry level is the same at 1.25 euros as the company has chosen to focus on the prize "this year". In hypermarkets, where 680 wines will be offered, "30% of the selection is less than 5 euros and 45% to less than 7 euros," explains the group. In supermarkets Carrefour Market, "the average bottle price is 6 euros." This argument should convince men-client type of the Wine Fair, to fill their baskets for 55 euros on average, at Carrefour.
"Two bottles purchased, offered a"
Leclerc also offers many affordable bottles from its 3000 references. The company, which invented the event in 1973, has seen its turnover grow Wine Fair from 8% last year to 80 million euros (12% of sales over the year).
Auchan, there are many "quality of the vintage 2009 to incite customers to buy," anticipates Olivier Mouchet, Group Head wines. Two-thirds of the offer (1200 references, up to 800 per store) will consist of wine this year. "For three years we have strengthened the promotions of the type bought two bottles, one offered. This offer is valid this year about a bottle of five, "said the official, adding that" the choice is our main argument. "
Last year, Auchan has achieved a turnover of 54 million euros, up 7%, representing 15% of sales over the year. This is double the grouping of the Musketeers, for which the event (45 million in sales) accounted for 8% of annual sales in 2010.
"Systeme U is" over-seller "of wine during the fairs, more than its share of food market over the period," said Emmanuel Podevin, the head of the national product of the wine brand. Rather than the lowest price, Système U emphasis this year on the value. The bottle sold in U at the Wine Fair is about twice as that sold during the year: 7 euros for the first, against about 3 euros for the second. The strategy has proven itself in 5 years, the turnover of the event has doubled in U system, reaching 36 million euros last year.
French clubs have bought more than they have spent. While the transfer market closed Wednesday, the financial statement of the summer transfer window is negative. This is not necessarily good news as the financial fair play (as imposed by UEFA to force European football clubs not to spend money they do not have) is on the horizon . According to the website TransferMarkt, French clubs in Ligue 1 has purchased more than 151 million euros during the transfer window and spent 191 million. A shortfall of 40 million. Last year at this time, the elite of French football had posted a profit of 57.67 million euros.
This difference of 97 million euros or less corresponds to that between purchases and sales made this summer by the PSG.Great animator of the transfer window was the Parisian club, now under Qatari clubhouse, has in fact spent more than $ 86 million to acquire new recruits, and he sold joureurs for 2.8 million euros. The Parisian club comes in second place teams with the most purchased during this transfer window behind Manchester City (92.25 million euros), owned by Sheikh Mansour, and ahead of Juventus Turin (85,750,000). By comparison, Lille, Marseille and Lyon, all three involved in the Champions League this season, spent 15 million respectively, 11 million and 5 million this summer.
For the record, the Argentine midfielder Javier Pastore, who came to PSG for 42 million euros, is single-handedly double the total of the purchases by clubs in Ligue 1 last year (21.7 million).The capital club up five players in the top "ten" of the biggest transfers of the summer transfer window.
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