The three major rating agencies have Anglo-Saxon reassured after the deterioration of the U.S. debt rating by Standard & Poor's: France, with a AAA, will not follow the same path. At least in the coming months. An agency is an exception, the Chinese Dagong. It gives the country an AA-rating, while preventing it could soon lower it. Large agencies and small news, who's right?
Dagong is not severe with France. "She has a much more negative than Western agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, observes in a note to Patrick Artus, head of economic research at Natixis.Regarding the situation of public finances and potential growth, we can only give reason for Dagong against three major rating agencies. "
But the financial rating of a state that reflects the risk that it does not pay-or-bad debt, is not based solely on purely accounting. Moreover, France does not deserve an AA if only the statistics alone were taken into account by Standard & Poor's, according to calculations of Natixis.
Political risks
"The gap between Dagong and the three major agencies and explained in the apprehension of risk policy and governance," notes Juan Carlos Rodado, economist at Natixis, and author of a study on the methodology of rating agencies. An example: Venezuela has severely noted Standard & Poor's (BB-) by Dagong (BB +), because the former has less confidence in the Chavez government.Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, unlike Dagong, also place a note on the weight of history. If a country has poorly paid its creditors in the past, such as Russia in 1998, the final verdict will be more severe. This factor discriminates against developing countries, and benefits the West.
At the heart of the statistical arguments, the Chinese agency promotes stronger economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, that is to say the cash generated by an entire economy thanks to exports. This way of clearly favors the emerging countries, major exporters (including China) and catching up economically.
The agency Dagong appears too severe, however, in general, said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist in charge of France, Natixis also: "She has placed virtually no major country in the AAA category, and those that are found are not debt markets rather narrow in which we can not really invest, such as Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and New Zealand. "
Question of Independence
Also emit some doubts about the credibility of the agency Dagong. It has only twenty analysts to rate 67 countries, against 70 to 80 126 Standard & Poor's. In addition, its relationship with the Beijing government cast doubt on some Chinese economists, reports Le Monde. Finally, the same method as slides Juan Carlos Rodado, is not innocent: "When Dagong underestimated so the political risk, we understand the underlying interest."Namely encourage emerging countries close to China.
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Capgemini announced Thursday morning accounts for the first half in line with expectations. At the end of the period, the turnover of the group of services stood at 4.756 billion euros, in line with analysts' expectations. These revenues were up 12.9% year on year, an increase of 7.4% adjusted for foreign exchange and perimeter. The group is managed to boost its growth over the first half of 2010 had been "marked by the renewal or extension of several large outsourcing contracts." Thanks to this dynamism and improved margins, Capgemini releases half-year net profit of 127 million euros, or 2.7% more than the profit recorded during the same period last year.
Capgemini was the goal of improving its profitability.It keeps its promises in the first half, with operating margin, which stood at 6.1% against 5.8% during the same period last year. This adjustment margin is most sensitive in the U.S. (+8.2%). In France, which remains the largest market group, it has risen to 7.6%. Capgemini says that his income from work the fastest growing in Brazil and Italy. But on these very dynamic markets, the margin of the group is only 5.9% down year on year. This lower cost weighs on the performance of the Managed Services, also down slightly from the first half of 2010.
Margins were up, however, in system integration, and especially for Sogeti (9.9%). They also rose a bit in the activity "consulting", which shows a return of 11.8%. This activity is the only display a decline in sales in the first half (-1.6%).Capgemini says that-performance against the concentration of its consulting business "in areas most vulnerable to spending cuts in the public sector," citing in particular the United Kingdom and Benelux.
Annual targets maintained
The group intends to show at the end of the year growth in sales of 9% to 10%, of which "at least 5%" to constant data. It therefore maintains its annual guidance, despite "the macroeconomic uncertainties that still exist today in most countries and despite a negative currency that will probably be as bad as it has been for the past six months."
The figures, as estimates of the group, is already widely anticipated by investors. Without a good surprise, they are a little disappointed this morning.Around 11 am, at the Paris Bourse, the title appears Capgemini and down by 7.57% in a market that yields 0.75%.
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The invention of the "fast fashion"
Paste the request of client (e) s. This is the credo of Zara, which has built its entire organization around this obsession. "We can create a collection of four weeks, or two if the market demands," said Amancio Ortega regularly. Beyond the two traditional annual collections, Zara continually renewing its models. Its 200 stylists create up to 30,000 per year! The commercial headquarters in La Coruña are in constant contact with others in the field collecting impressions, tastes, consumer expectations and disappointments. Based on these criteria, the products are redesigned, improved, remanufactured … or abandoned.Another advantage is the constant renewal incentive for loyal customers to visit stores more often for the brand.
Logistics infallible
The stores take orders twice a week restocking and come the next day in small quantities. In Europe, everyone is supplied with less than 24 hours over 12 hours are needed for other destinations. To operate such a system, Inditex is a group of exceptionally integrated and centralized. 49% of the production is also performed "close" is in Spain, Portugal, Morocco. Asia weighs only 35% of production, although this share may grow with the expansion of the group.
Conquest International
Pablo Isla accelerated internationalization of the group in China with the opening of 120 stores in 42 cities, or in India, New Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore and Pune.Inditex has also identified its future target: South Africa and Latin America. The store openings are a key driver of growth of Zara. Another may soon be launching a brand of shoes and accessories.
Catch up on the Internet
Buy Zara.com is possible only since September 2010. Inditex then accuses a real behind the Web, it tries to fill at a rapid pace. Six countries initially, the online sale is now open in sixteen countries, based on those where the brand is already strong. September 7, Zara.com will build on its big debut in the U.S., then it will be the tour of Japan. Zara, whose reputation on the Web is already made, in light of its 9.7 million fans on Facebook, aims to achieve online sales of over EUR 1.5 billion annually.
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U.S. stock markets are evolving around the balance on Thursday. The Dow Jones gained 0.05% to 11,902.68 points, the S & P 500 gained 0.15% to 1267.31 points while the Nasdaq lost 0.05% to 2630.11 points Wednesday, the NYSE has ended a marked decrease, yielding again to concerns about debt and undermined by several Greek statistics bad omen.
Markets should remain very fragile on Thursday while the situation in Greece and the proceedings were mired up in the country without the euro zone will reach a solution firm. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday announced a reshuffle of his government to be held this Thursday, the day he will ask for a confidence vote in Parliament.
Meanwhile the weekly jobless
In the wake of heightened tensions, the euro retreated against the dollar ever.In the afternoon in Paris, the European single currency was worth 1.4147 dollars against 1.4182 dollars late Wednesday, after falling to 1.4090 dollars in the morning, the lowest since three weeks.
Meanwhile, oil prices continued to fall at the opening in New York, losing 14 cents a barrel to 94.67 dollars despite indicators better than expected in the U.S., a market increasingly nervous about the magnitude of the crisis in Greece. That of Brent North Sea crude for delivery same progressed from 99 cents to 114 dollars.Investors buy oil after the sharp decline yesterday, which saw prices go below $ 95 a barrel.
However, there is good news on the macroeconomic front:
– New jobless claims fell more than expected in the United States, where 414,000 applications for grants were submitted from June 5 to 11 – a drop of 4% from last week.Analysts had expected 421,000 new registrations.
– The housing starts and building permits issued in the U.S. are starting to rebound in May, increasing by 8.7% and 3.5%, according to figures released Thursday by the Commerce Department.
However, the deficit of the balance of current accounts of the United States has widened in the first quarter to 119.3 billion against $ 112.2 billion the previous quarter, according to figures released Thursday by the Commerce Department.
Boeing revises its forecasts upwards
Boeing: 0.77% to 74.42 dollars
Side firms, Boeing announced Thursday forecast revised upwards for the global market for airliners in 2030, which should be driven in particular by the renewal of the fleets of airlines seeking fuel-efficient aircraft.By that date, Boeing now expects a volume of 33,500 new units sold, all manufacturers combined, for a total estimated at more than 4,000 billion dollars.
Caterpillar: 0.76% to 96.38 dollars
The world's leading manufacturer of construction equipment, Caterpillar, will launch this year the construction of a factory in Thailand, he announced Thursday. The factory, covering an area of 40,000 m2, will begin production late 2013 and employ about 900 people.
IBM: +0.19% to 162.64 dollars, Apple +0.17% to 327.30 dollars
The computer giant IBM, which was responsible for several technological revolutions that led to the modern computer, is celebrating its 100th birthday this Thursday by showing a great vitality, even if no longer domination that was his.With $ 197 billion market capitalization, IBM is the 14th global value, behind Apple (304 billion U.S. dollars) but close to Microsoft ($ 201 billion).
Ford: -0.20% to 13.12 dollars
The automaker Ford has dampened the market in providing for the second quarter results "equal or slightly lower" than in the first quarter, less than analysts were waiting, mostly because of rising costs.
Johnson & Johnson: -0.24% to $ 66
Always on the side of values, Johnson & Johnson, through its subsidiary Cordis announced discontinuation of development of its prosthetic heart stent Nevo to "concentrate on other cardiovascular therapies for which significant needs exist for patients" .Given this decision, the group should record a second quarter restructuring charge after tax of between 500 and 600 million dollars.
Autozone: +0.08% to 289.79 dollars
The board of directors has approved an extension Autozone's share buyback program of approximately 500 million additional shares.
CLARCOR: 1.92% to 44.08 dollars
CLARCOR issued for the second quarter of its fiscal year, ended May 28, revenues increased 12% to $ 288.5 million. Net income stood at $ 32.8 million, against a profit of $ 23.9 million a year earlier.
Owens-Illinois: -2.35% to 24.94 dollars
Owens-Illinois reduced its earnings forecast for the second quarter. The group was counting on previous results in line with those of the previous year.It now expects that its quarterly earnings will decline over one year.
SunPower: -0.91% to $ 17.50
Also note, Total has completed its friendly takeover bid of about $ 1.3 billion U.S. dollars on SunPower, a majority of shareholders of the company specialized in solar panels have agreed to tender their shares.
On Thursday morning, the Paris Bourse continued its-shy-rebound, as Asian markets. The Cac 40, which ended yesterday evening in a small increase remains in effect in the green in early trade (+0.13% to 3933.92 points) while China is flying to the rescue of the euro area by purchasing securities Debt issued by the IMF for Portugal. The improvement is mainly due to the upward revision of growth forecast in the U.S. and the euro area by the OECD yesterday.
While the G8 summit opens today in Deauville, speculation will go well on the nomination of Christine Lagarde to the IMF management.Moreover, for Greece, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said that Europeans had "not exhausted scenarios to support" the country, and found that debt restructuring has "significant risk."
Meanwhile, this Thursday, we follow the important economic figures:
• The French consumer confidence picked up slightly in May thanks to a receding fears of unemployment and inflation, shows Thursday monthly survey by INSEE. The composite indicator of consumer confidence is up one point to 84. Seventeen analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters on average expected a figure unchanged from April 83.
• Same time, figures on real estate in Paris and Ile-de-France in the first quarter, volumes and prices, and the prospects of Notaries of France were unveiled: the existing housing in Paris had reached an average the 8000 euros in the second quarter.
• In the U.S., at 14.30, we expect the deuxème estimate of GDP in the first quarter, and the traditional weekly claims for unemployment benefits.
On the currency front, after an air hole which brought him under the $ 1.40 yesterday, the euro and takes up 0.67% to 1.4177 dollars on Thursday morning at 8 o'clock.Oil, he, also incorporates height and handles more than $ 100 in New York.
Pierre et Vacances: heavy loss
Eurazeo (-6.09% to 53.55 euros) sign the heaviest decline beyond Paris stock exchange after its decision to increase its share capital.
Side companies, the real estate and leisure Pierre et Vacances Thursday posted an increased loss of 16.8% in first half of its fiscal year offset, dug by the extra costs to plan for business transformation, and anticipates growth in turnover in the second half.
France Telecom (+0.25% to 15.75 euros) and Canal + have given up the movie channels merge Orange (France Telecom) and TPS Star (Canal +) in a joint venture, La Tribune reported Thursday.
Saint-Gobain (0.67% to 44.49 euros) and its shareholder Wendel (1.25% to 83.23 euros) set the framework for their relations for 10 years.Wendel will not exceed 21.5% of the capital of Saint-Gobain.
According to the Financial Times, banks and hedge fund with Societe Generale (0.43% to 42.28 euros) leader, reportedly sold financial products to 3.5 billion euros in the Libyan sovereign fund that led to heavy losses, estimated by 30%.
Five candidates whose French Axa (1.27% to 14.75 euros) and CNP (0.65% to 13.88 euros) are still competing to buy Emeklilik-Deniz, the Turkish subsidiary of the insurance Franco-Belgian banking group Dexia (, said Thursday the newspaper Les Echos without citing its sources.
A major shareholders manager nursing homes Korian (+0.42% at 16.75 euros), the holding Batipart family Ruggieri, took 9.5% of the rival group Medica (2.69 % to 15.25 euros) for an undisclosed sum.
NYSE Euronext, a target of a takeover offer of 10.2 billion Deutsche Börse, is hoping to draw on its platform listing more Chinese groups this year in 2010, told Reuters quotes the head of international The transatlantic exchange operator.
LDC (+0.34% at 73.75 euros), the poultry producer, reported Wednesday a 24% decline in net profit for its fiscal year 2010/2011, to 47.8 million euros, penalized by higher raw material prices and restructuring costs. The company said it expects more than 100 million of capital expenditure in 2011-2012.
Vergnet (0.43% to 4.70 euros). The manufacturer's shareholders approved Wednesday the wind coming from the Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) and the Breton group Nass & Wind capital of the company.The ISP and Nass & Wind, specializing in the production of green electricity, announced in mid-April their plans to invest 18 million euros in Vergnet.
Faurecia, Capgemini, Natixis and Legrand hold their general meeting Thursday. Derichebourg publish its results for the second quarter after market close.
INSEE released Thursday its latest forecast of workforce by 2060. Under the central scenario retained by management of the Ministry of Economy, the labor force could increase by nearly 1.7 million in 2025 to reach 30 million French people, an average annual growth of 110,000. She then stabilize at that level until 2035 before rising again, but at a slower pace than before (45,000 + per year), exceeding 31 million in 2060.
The state lost less money than expected. The deficit amounted to 7% of GDP at the end of 2010, against 7.7% forecast in the government budget, INSEE reported Thursday. "It's really a remarkable achievement," responded the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, on Radio Classique. "France, very clearly, not only keeps faith deficit but goes beyond."
Even if the deficit is less bad than expected in 2010, it remains well above the limits allowed by Brussels (3% of GDP). As the debt reached a record level. Fueled by the deficit by 2010 and previous years, it rose to 81.7% of GDP.
If the deficit is better than expected, it is largely because state spending has decelerated sharply from 4.1% in 2009 to 2.1% in 2010.In constant euros, that is to say, excluding the effect of inflation, the increase is limited to +0.6%, welcomes Bercy in a statement: "This represents a significant inflection, well below the pace of average growth of 2.3% in volume over the past ten years. "
Expenses well controlled
"Social spending has been tightly controlled, health spending rose in line with expectations for only the second time in ten years and pension spending rose less than expected," Dominique Barbet analysis, economist at BNP Paribas.
This result is also explained by "a backlash effect, following the implementation of the Recovery Plan in 2009, and thus the automatic loss of spending in 2010, Insee said quick pay day loan."Social benefits slow (+3.4% after +5.5%), especially because unemployment benefits (after +8.1% +21.2% in 2009) and non-renewal of premiums paid in exceptional As part of the recovery plan, "said the French Institute of Business.
Better collection of taxes
On the other hand, the economic recovery has led to better tax collection. Revenues, after falling 3.8% in 2009, rebounded by 3.1%, but regain their pre-crisis level. This dynamic relation to taxes on income and wealth (+9.3% -16.5% after) or VAT (5.1 billion euros after -6.8 billion euros). The Government also welcomes a cost lower than expected business tax for the state, even if, INSEE said, it "translates into lower taxes on business."
Paris has committed to reduce to 6% in 2011, 4.6% in 2012 and 3% in 2013. The good performance in 2010 makes mechanically objective for 2011. "It seems likely now that the deficit will be lower than expected this year," said Dominique Barbet.
The budget for next year will be presented in mid-April before parliament before being sent to European institutions. Bercy promised on Thursday to bring the deficit "below" even 3% in 2013.
Very hesitant meeting Tuesday on the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40, who played yo-yo all day, finally chose the green fence. He finished with a gain of 0.27% to 3987.80 points, and yet is close of 4000 points.
The CAC 40, which had earlier lined up four sessions, fell victim to profit taking during the session. Investors remain concerned about the situation in the Middle East and Japan, do indeed play the card of caution. "Too many uncertainties remain heavily to buy stocks," says Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays stock. I can not believe that the Cac 40 lasts longer. The correction is inevitable. "
Other major European markets have followed the same path. The London Stock Exchange gained 0.47% to 5932.17 points after playing in the red much of the day.For its part, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange dropped 0.76% to 6886.14 points.
On the macroeconomic front:
– Expenditure on household consumption of manufactured goods rose 0.9% in February after falling 0.3% in January, mainly due to a rebound in auto purchases
– The number of starts of new homes jumped 54.1% yoy for the period from December to February, while the number of building permits for these homes increased by 25.5%
– United States: the Case-Shiller housing index dropped 1.0% in January from December, as expected, and 3.1% in January 2010.U.S. consumer confidence is also falling to 63.4 in March, against a revised index rose to 72.0 for the month of February, according to data released Tuesday by the Employers' Federation Conference Board. The median consensus analysts polled by Reuters expected a general index to 65.0, with variations from 55.0 to 72.0.
Renault takes off
Renault: 2.44% to 38.39 euros
A sound document released Monday by The Express reveals that Renault knew in February that the espionage case that hit was a fake scandal. The Exchange does not seem affected by this announcement, pushing even the title of the manufacturer at the top of the charts of ACC 40.
Edenred: + 1.95% to 21.43 euros
Edenred, resulting from the division in July with the Accor hotel group, is carried by various rumors about a possible takeover of the company or paying a special dividend.
Camaieu flies
Titles Camaïeu leapt 44.05% to 209.16 euros after being booked on the rise at the opening, following agreements signed between the fund and MODACIN Modamax and major shareholders of the brand's ready- to-wear. MODACIN Modamax and controlled by Cinven fund and hold about 65% stake in Camaieu, announced on the eve of signing agreements with major shareholders of the group to purchase their hand up and was 95% of capital.The offer price is 214.46 euros, representing a premium of 47% over the closing price as of Friday, March 25 and valuing the entire company at 1.3 billion euros, or about 1.6 times its turnover.
Gemalto 2.13% to 35.47 euros
The company said it was allied to the giant Mastercard credit cards in the field of contactless payment by mobile, considered a growth driver for the manufacturer of smart cards.
Peugeot: 0.85% to 27.77 euros
PSA Peugeot Citroen has announced a gradual return to normal production in Europe from March 31.
Dexia: -0.03% to 2.87 euros
The rating agency has doubts about the financial health of three subsidiaries of which Dexia Dexia Credit Local.Moody's intends to degrade their notes.
Areva: + 0.98% to 31.39 euros
The Supervisory Board of Areva, which was held on Monday confirmed Lauvergeon to head the nuclear expert, according to BFM Business.But the State had requested the appointment of a number two.
EDF: 0.75% to 28.91 euros
The list of new members of the board of directors of Edison, controlled by EDF and the Italian A2a could be known this week, said on Monday a source familiar with the matter.
Lagardère: + 0.25% to 30.09 euros
Lagardere announced Monday the signing of the sale of its international magazine from the American Hearst, 651 million euros.
Technip: 1.16% to 74.41 euros
Technip wins contract to install subsea pipelines for the development of a field off Abu Dhabi, according to a statement released Tuesday.
Medica: +0.80% to 14.40 euros
Medica was published on Tuesday a profit of 23.2 million euros in 2010, after a loss of 13.4 million euros in 2009, and announced an increase in its activity by 15% in 2011.
Also note, investors await tonight's results after market Neopost.
The Cac 40 ended Thursday in a series of six consecutive sessions swales that have been losing nearly 8%, falling to less than 3700 points, following the natural disaster in Japan. The Paris index has now exceeded the 3800 points. Nevertheless, other hot topics would be able to make the Cac relapse. But to Marc Renaud, founder of Mandarine Gestion, only a new surge in oil prices is a major risk.
Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com Despite the nuclear crisis now hitting Japan, the Cac 40 has resumed its forward march. How do you explain it?
Marc Renaud – Without underestimating the human drama that represents this event, I do not think he can affect the good performance of the CAC 40 to the end of February.Only the worst case scenario where Tokyo would be evacuated would cause a sharp drop in financial markets.
What sectors to avoid?
Investors should be cautious with the exposure values and nuclear electricity as Areva and EDF, with groups of luxury Japanese customers eat locally but also beyond its borders and reinsurers. Conversely, I think that values such as Axa and Allianz will be little affected by the situation in Japan and are therefore good buying opportunities. In addition to the questioning of the nuclear, oil and gas values are also preferred.
What could give investors confidence in a sustainable way?
A final agreement of European states in a week to resolve the crisis. Most investors were concerned that major decisions are taken on 24 and 25 March.The solidarity of the European Union has paid. This file is endangered. Not that a final settlement of the consumption of European states would continue to remain low for a decade, Portugal and Spain still have difficulties in raising finance on capital markets but investors were pleasantly surprised by the agreement reached last week on terms of lending to countries weakened financially.
Spread the Greek debt as advocated by the European states is it not detrimental to the banks?
While the banking sector will suffer discounts (the situation where the market value of a security is less than its current value) of 15% to 30%, but that does not call into question the soundness of their own funds and does not require to increase their capital.I believe that financial markets have exaggerated the extent of the impact of the financial problems of banks in Greece. Investors now have more confidence in the ability of the EU out of crisis and consequence in the banking sector. The risk premium decreases, they return to values such as Credit Agricole at the expense of BNP Paribas.
Conversely, what scenario could relapse CAC 40?
Oil at $ 150. Unlike Japan's nuclear crisis, soaring oil prices would seriously threaten global growth. I fear the worst on record. The invasion of Bahrain in Saudi Arabia is not to reassure investors. If financial markets can cope with the nuclear crisis in Japan, they will not withstand a sudden surge in oil prices.Because in the past a strong increase in oil prices has often given way to a strong economic recession.
And the likely increase in interest rates from the European Central Bank in April?
Rates are unusually low. Thus, an increase no matter how small it can only be beneficial for the European economy. Europe should be able to withstand a series of small increases in interest rates from the European Central Bank, but most radical of any decision the ECB would be dangerous to their consumers and their banks.
While the country remains on alert this morning after a second explosion at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima Daiichi, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is taking steps to counter the effects of the disaster into the economy and instant credit reports…
