After two sessions of gains, the Paris Stock Exchange is divided into negative territory on Friday and so its losses widened in mid-session, the CAC40 index lost 1.28% to 3046, 20 points. London and Frankfurt follow with respective losses of 0.74% and 1.43%.
The banking sector raises again the concerns of investors. It emphasizes its losses from the statements of Christine Lagarde under which a liquidity crisis was not to dismiss as some banks needed additional capital. "This is the effect Lagarde. These statements primarily affect banks that are considered the least well placed in terms of capital ratios, "said one trader.
Result: mid-term, Societe Generale falling 6.66% to 18.21 euros and signed the largest decrease in the CAC.Behind her, Crédit Agricole loose 4.34% to 5.60 euros, Natixis 4.65% to 2.48 euros, BNP Paribas 3.77% to 31.01 euros and Axa 3.82% to 9.78 euros.
Obama's plan is not reassuring
Investors also unenthusiastic welcome details of the plan for employment unveiled by U.S. President Barack Obama in the night. He introduced a bill on the release of 447 billion dollars for the Americans out of unemployment. "This plan will give an electric shock to an economy that has stalled, will give confidence to businesses on the fact that if they invest and hire, there will be customers for their products and services," assured the U.S. president to members of Congress .
As in Asia this morning, traders seem to doubt the implementation of this plan. Its funding is already generating questions from Republican opponents could block a vote.Barack Obama urged them to adopt "immediately". The U.S. president also announced that it will issue on September 19 "a deficit reduction plan more ambitious."
As Wall Street yesterday, investors have also not appreciated the remarks of the President of the Federal Reserve on growth and jobs last night. The Fed "will do everything it can to participate in the return of growth and employment rates," said its chairman Ben Bernanke, minimizing inflation fears.This speech, however, feeds the assumption of a new effort of quantitative easing, which could be announced at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed, scheduled for September 20 and 21.
Inflation slows in China
Still on macroeconomic, Japan has this morning reported a decline of 2.1% of GDP in the second quarter 2011 annualized. This is more than the 1.3% decline initially estimated. The main factor weighing on GDP has been the decline in exports (-4.9% from January to March).
In China, rising consumer prices, the main barometer of inflation, which had accelerated in recent months, slowed slightly to 6 no teletrack payday loans.2% in August.Industrial production is she up 13.5% in August.
In France, industrial production rebounded 1.5% in July after a decline of similar magnitude in June, show statistics released Friday by INSEE. The budget deficit of the French government fell in late July to 86.6 billion euros, against 93.1 billion euros a year earlier, thanks to lower costs, said Friday the Department of Budget .
On the agenda are also on Friday, stocks of wholesalers in the United States. Are also expected in the afternoon, the first estimate of U.S. consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.
As for currencies, the euro hovers around $ 1.38, having dropped below the threshold for the first time in six months (1.3789 to 24:10 in Paris). Oil rises for its part, supported by a surprise drop in U.S. inventories.In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 23 cents to 89.28 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 21 cents to 114.76 dollars.
Values to follow
• TF1 (-6.73%), M6 (-5.10%) Bolloré (3.63%) Vivendi (1.49%); NextRadioTV (-1.28%)
Chains react in a disorganized to take control of Direct 8 Direct and Star, two DTT channels free of the Bolloré Group, Canal +. The subsidiary of Vivendi will have three DTT frequencies. Be as much as TF1 and M6 more than the group which, in addition to the namesake chain, has only W9.For this operation, fully financed by shares, a stake Bolloré group Vivendi.
• Total (0.62%) signed the second largest increase after Vivendi CAC40 (1.55%)
The Anglo-Dutch oil group Shell said Friday that oil was discovered off the coast of French Guiana, during exploratory drilling at about 150 km off the coast.
• Sopra (0.70%)
The group announced the takeover of Delta, specialized in banking software.The transaction is expected to close in early October 2011, will be financed from existing credit lines of business consulting, IT services and software.
• Pierre & Vacances (-4.30%)
The group, which operates much of the accommodation ski resorts, opened 369 new tourist residences furnished this winter.
• ArcelorMittal (-4.30%)
The group will close as of October 3 for an indefinite period and the second blast furnace at its site in Florange (Moselle), according to a union source quoted by AFP.
• EADS (-0.16%) on the second step of the podium
The group said on Thursday not want to use all of its $ 16 billion (11.45 billion euros) in cash for acquisitions.
The new tone decidedly anti-jargon adopted by South Radio when he arrived in Paris on the air is controversial. The High Council of Audiovisual (CSA) has remained the station for anti-Semitic statements in the release of Michel and Eric Mazet Cardoze 16 hours to 18 hours. Eric Mazet was laid off by the radio. Robert Ménard, who hosts the morning show with a phone-called "free-Ménard," is also under fire because the auditors have made racist remarks on his show. How far can we go with freedom of expression? "That's the difficulty. Simply South Radio does not do the same as the others. If today half the French do not trust the media because they feel that journalists are cut off from them. This is a problem of democracy.How to talk about people, their worries, their fears, even if they are poorly made, do not pass in the media, "said he. Should we let freedom provided to foul words? Racist and antisemitic fall under criminal law. "That is why in my show, I immediately put a stop saying we will not see it at home. Eric Mazet made a stupid, clumsy as it did not have the right spread. But that does not mean an anti-Semite. The challenge of Sud Radio, is not to repeat what all the major radio stations, that is to say information among themselves. You know, to combat racism and antisemitism, there is the French method is to prohibit all about. But another method is practiced by other democratic countries like the United States with the First Amendment.It is to say, we will give expression to views reprehensible, and, opposite, there are journalists who disagree with this statement. But I want to meet up to walk to these comments. The problem is that France, when you do this, it is pointed to by all sorts of associations "
After the notice of the CSA, Sud Radio Will it continue these programs free antenna or correct it? "We will continue to freedom of expression and we will enforce the law as I am working every morning easy payday loans. The CSA was entered on August 17 with a complaint about anti-Semitic words classified as Jean-Michel Larqué (on RMC, ed.) I do not feel that the CSA has already studied the issue. But with South Radio, 48 hours, it was folded. There are two weights, two measures. There are three of the band: RMC, Europe 1 and RTL that can be abstracted from the law, and small as Radio South who are beaten up.I think we should change the stupid laws in France that does not solve the problems of racism and antisemitism. For 25 years I say. In France, freedom of the press is corseted by laws unnecessary. "
The model of Robert Ménard is it the Fox News? "In the U.S., radio is a thousand times freer because it does not have this problem of law. In South Radio, we tried to invent something. "
With his arrival in Paris, Sud Radio plays big economically. That's why the station has taken as many risks. But if it increases the skids, the CSA may punish by removing the frequency Paris. Moreover, the allocation of this frequency has been challenged by RMC, Europe 1 and RTL. "It's been 25 years that I defend freedom of expression. I paid professionally. With RTL, this is wrong.I went on Sud Radio because it gave me a freedom that I have anywhere else. If this changes, I will not stay. I think, even if it bothers you, what is done in South Radio is a work of public safety. Finally, we give voice to the people. It serves no purpose to prohibit, we must fight. This is what I do every morning, telling listeners: this is not acceptable but I'll answer. "
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Reportedly, the government is preparing to raise the fee paid by social enterprises to 8% in 2012, while it is currently 6%. The Elysée and Matignon are still far from having the entire refereed austerity plan which will be unveiled Wednesday by François Fillon. But the rise in social package, which was already in the pipeline even before the crisis erupted, has very strong chance of being selected.
The social package is a kind of social contribution, which weighs on the amounts paid under the profit sharing, participation, savings and pensions pay extra. Paid by companies, was established in 2009 at a rate of 2%. He has since been increased by two percentage points each year by the government! The draft budget for 2012 should not be an exception to the rule cash advance. The increase of 6% to 8% could yield 400 million euros to Social Security.
Similarly, two other measures related to loss carry-on profits, have very likely to be retained in the austerity plan. The carry-back would be limited to one year. And regarding the carry forward losses from the profits would be capped. In Germany, the losses allocated may not exceed 60% of earnings in excess of 1 million euros.
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Tuesday, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon discussed the new austerity measures that will be presented Aug. 24. Measures required for France to retain its credibility in the markets and keep its target of reducing the public deficit to 4.6% in 2012.
What was planned
In late June, the government thought it had completed the expenditure side of the budget in 2012. Apart from 30,401 job cuts in civil servants (to respect the rule of non-replacement of retiring in two), he foresaw no drastic measure. On the revenue side, the executive thought to stick to 2012 an increase of 3 billion euros of taxes.The measures passed in the fall of 2010 allowing themselves to raise $ 2.4 billion in 2012 (as on marriages and divorces, the solar panels, the plane niche), there were only 600 million small to find, mainly on fiscal and social niches.
The extra effort
In early August, speculation about the note of the French debt, and the publication of zero growth in the second quarter have changed the situation. The government announced Aug. 24 that he would introduce austerity measures complementary form of cuts in niches and expenditure savings. Measures that will be added so the plan stalled in late June. Given the number of the second quarter, many economists believe that French growth will not reach the levels anticipated by Bercy, 2% in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012.But it is not clear that the government revise its forecast from August 24. He fears that a premature review discourage households and businesses. The additional austerity measures could then be presented as a safety cushion. It evokes a total effort (including 3 billion already provided) between 5 and 10 billion.
The tracks for households
Arbitrations are not made but many tracks are on the table. The tax loopholes should have a new movement of the plane (that is to say, a lump sum reduction of the benefit), this time for devices on the income of 2012. Plane and 10% voted last year to 2011 revenues could be increased. "I especially hope that this plane does not, like this year, a score of niches, but more generally," said Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget in the Senate one hour payday loan.His counterpart in the Assembly Gilles Carrez is on the same line. MPs also want to lower the overall ceiling of niches, now fixed at 6% of income over 18 000 euros. However, the idea developed by the UMP Jérôme Chartier limit to 50% of tax due from the advantage of niches does not seem to hold the rope. The niches on the overseas are in the spotlight, such as real estate. A lowering of Scellier to 15% in 2012 (instead of 18%) would be driven by Bercy. Alternatively, introduce a condition of income in the new interest-free loan, now open to all. He had already planned to eliminate discounts that apply to real estate gains (10% per year after five years), but only for undeveloped land for building. The system of all real estate gains could now be cured without jeopardizing the exemption for primary residence.Allowances on capital gains would also be looked securities. Gilles Carrez calls for taxation over the water, so each year of life. "This is something artificial, complex and betray the government's promise not to touch the life," Storm Bernard Spitz, the president of the FFSA (French federation of insurance companies). Finally, the government wants to tax the very high incomes. A track is preferred because it has the preference of parliamentarians: a new tax of 1% to 2% for annual revenues in excess of one million euros.
The tracks for business
The regime of worldwide profits (BMC) should be preserved. As the exemption of capital gains on the sale of subsidiary. "It is wrong to believe as Martine Aubry niche that weighs 22 billion. These cover 22 billion three years, "says one at Bercy.However, the carry back of losses could be limited to one year. Regarding the carry forward losses from the profits would be capped. Another idea: in the tax consolidation groups, 5% of the dividends would be taxed (whereas now they are exempt). Advantage of these measures: they affect large groups.
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Attendance up 5%. An average expenditure which increased by 4% in its parks. Taking advantage of a particularly mild weather in spring and the return of British and Italian visitors, Euro Disney rose 7% on sales of its parks and hotels, to 344 million euros in the third quarter (ended late June) of its 2010-2011 fiscal year. This is his fifth consecutive quarter of increases. Taking into account the sale of a significant real estate asset, Europe's leading theme parks accumulated 903.5 million euros in turnover in nine months (+1.2% compared to last year ).
The French, who represented 51% of customers last year came less numerous: the slight improvement in the economic environment has led them to more from the spring.In contrast, British and Italian clientele grew, encouraged by policies coming promotions more pronounced than last year.
The good weather has also contributed to the performance of Euro Disney. A pleasant weather naturally encourages visitors to stay longer in the parks. A plus for the restoration, especially at night. It also encourages the regulars in the last minute to finally take their ticket. Knowing that about 50% of French customers of Euro Disney lives in Ile-de-France, it is far from negligible.
"An incidence of 30% attendance"
The bad weather of July and early August this will inevitably impact on revenue of Mickey and, more generally, on most other amusement parks online payday loans. Euro Disney does not give a forecast for the full year.But the last quarter, the summer months, is the largest of the year. At the Compagnie des Alpes, which owns the Parc Asterix and Futuroscope, the last quarter of fiscal year (July-August-September) concentrates 50% of the business of amusement parks. A bad summer does not catch up. "July and August are the two biggest months of the year for the industry, insists Didier Arino, Chief of Staff Protourisme. Bad weather penalizes all parks outdoors, especially water parks Aqualand and as Walibi. Parc Asterix, which has a strong client focus, also suffers. Parks attractions offering coverage, such as Futuroscope, aquariums or Crocodile Farm, do better. "
According to this expert, the great advance made in the spring will allow the largest farms (more than one million visitors) to record another year of growth."But 2011 will not beat attendance records in 2010," he predicts, ensuring that "the weather has an incidence of 30% attendance at outdoor parks."
Already facing a strong seasonality of revenues, theme parks have so decisive a card to play in protecting itself further to the vagaries of time. But this represents additional investment. "Vulcania, for example, has developed a open air that did not exist at the start," said Didier Arino.
Annick Goutal perfumes changes hands. Korean cosmetics group Amore Pacific, which owns the Lolita Lempicka fragrance and cosmetics Laneige, acquired the French brand to the U.S. fund Starwood Capital. The latter had acquired in 2005 by taking control of several jewels of the Taittinger family group: hotels Crillon and Lutetia or Baccarat crystal.
Goutal perfumes, bought by Taittinger in 1985 and still led by Brigitte Taittinger, had been founded by Annick Goutal in 1981. The brand has stores in France, Belgium, UK and Canada, but mainly distribution agreements with 1300 stores in twenty countries. Amore Pacific sees growth potential in Asia.
The McDonald's Happy Meal in the colors of the Smurfs on the Old Continent, the trendy water bar and the shop window Colette invaded by little blue men, a video game from Ubisoft for PlayStation, an iPhone application that exceeded 13 million downloads …
With the worldwide release of the film, the Smurfs are back in derivatives. A comeback orchestrated by IMPS, the company founded in 1984 by Belgian cartoonist Peyo's daughter, to manage the license. "We realized that the reputation of the Smurfs were huge but mainly used in Europe and often linked to the world of children, says William Auriol, managing director of IMPS, hired in 2009 for the film.We wanted to brand credibility on all age groups working on areas hitherto unusual for us. "
Hundreds of contracts have been established last year in 80 countries, the United States to Brazil via Malaysia and South Africa.In China, the Smurfs, who played the mascot for Expo Shanghai, allowed the Belgian pavilion to break records.
Candy, CDs, figurines …
Among these contracts, an advertising campaign on the environment in Spain of Volkswagen, the promotion of South Korea LG smartphones, dressing in South America credit card bank BBVA … "The film gives a very nice visibility to the license and can develop many partnerships, but the Smurfs have a life outside the film, "says Jerome Ollagnier, Brand Director at The Licensing Company, which manages the rights in France bad credit payday loans.
The 272 episodes of the cartoon aired non-stop for twenty years, have sat success. In fifteen years, sales of products reached $ 8 billion. 6 billion of Haribo sweets sold 40 million CDs, 500 million figurines, Kinder Surprise 50 million per year.Besides contracts with H & M, Zara and Sisley to attract the greatest. Only a third of sales of IMPS is made outside Europe. "The growth potential of the brand is huge, said William Auriol, who took the opportunity to increase its royalties. We are 15-20% of the way. "
The reasons for success? "These little blue, appeared in Spirou magazine in 1958, have become popular heroes beyond the comic, said Jerome Ollagnier. With a different name in each country (the Smurfs, i Puffi …), everyone can relate to men and women, children and adults. "
In France, large areas are still like the Smurfs characters dusty. This will not prevent the little blue men to settle in linear packs of sausages Knack or croque-monsieur Herta (Nestlé). Lint and Jemini dishes will also be sold in November."We have all the parameters for a commercial success," enthuses Thierry Bertoux, CEO of Jemini, who would see the Smurfs represent between 5% and 10% of its turnover in 2011.
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It's a simple story of leeks and parsley that was enough to put at the door. Peggy Gerard, who works at a supermarket Ed Nieppe, in the North, was fired July 15 for gross misconduct after the vegetables were discovered in his car. This woman, a supervisor, says she got these vegetables "faded" with a premiere independent, and they were for his rabbits. But his explanations were not enough to his employer, who believes she tells … salad.
Because the direction of the hard-discount Ed says Peggy Gerard admitted during the control be in possession of the goods from the store. "On June 1, an area manager wanted to control the trunk of my car when I went home for lunch," says this single mother who works for the brand since October 2005."I refused twice because I felt that he had no right. But the third, I finally agreed. He found a black garbage bag with vegetables in it. In the afternoon, shortly after the reopening, I was told to go home, "said the employee fired.
Without contributions Assedic
Thief or victim? Peggy Gerard vain shall submit a declaration confirming that the merchant had recovered well, the eve of the facts, the vegetables in question. "I never had no problems. I was never charged even if an apple when I fly threw for 300 euros of goods per day, "says the young woman.
Peggy Gerard now plans to defend himself before the tribunal. It took the union Workers' Force (FOR) will continue Ed's behalf. "This is unacceptable.Not only do we get to the bottom, but we must treat emergency because Ed refused to give certificates of the Assedic contributions to enable it to survive, "Lionel rebels Meuris, general secretary of the union county TF North, adding: "The facts are totally unjustified. Ed to grow up acknowledging their error and restoring its employee's rights. "
Lettuce, leeks and parsley vegetables "stolen" in question – be sufficient to deprive Peggy Gerard's job? In late June, an employee of Monoprix in Marseille had been laid off for trying to get two salads and six melons in a garbage collected. He has since returned to duty.
Do not panic in financial markets. This seems to be the credo now senior U.S. policy makers after a weekend marked by new sterile discussions between elected Republicans and Democrats on the thorny issue of the reversal of U.S. debt. Twice since Friday night, the talks between the two sides have failed to unlock the status quo on the action to start to reduce the U.S. debt. With a huge debt ceiling set by law (14.294 billion U.S. dollars) was exceeded on 16 May, which could lead the world's largest economy straight into a default on 2 August.
Friday night, the country experienced a further escalation in the standoff between Democrats and Republicans, they refused to comply with the requirements of President Barack Obama.The Democrats call indeed now $ 400 billion of additional tax increases. A change of position is unacceptable, according to John Boehner, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives, while the two sides had previously agreed to a ceiling of one trillion dollars in additional tax revenue to reduce debt further Atlantic. Saturday evening, the President was therefore convened in emergency to four White House officials Republicans and Democrats in Congress for a new emergency meeting. But no more successful in negotiations, after 50 minutes of discussion.
Do not scare investors
The inability of both sides to agree on tax revenues and budget cuts necessary leads the U.S. on a slippery slope.Besides the risk of degradation by the rating agencies of their sovereign rating, the status quo would cause panic on world financial markets, barely recovered from the fears of the risk of contagion from the crisis of the Greek debt to other countries Europe.
U.S. officials are well aware, those who now wish to reach an agreement by Sunday evening before the opening of Asian markets. Rebuked by President Barack Obama, Congress pledged Saturday to present a plan to reduce the deficit within 48 hours to push the risk of lowering the country's sovereign rating. The fact is that beyond the tax revenues, the issue of budget cuts expected to be a problem. Democratic side, the president believes that the 1.6 trillion cuts represent an offer "extraordinarily fair".Republican side, these efforts remain insufficient to John Boehner, who wishes to bring to 3 trillion budget savings over 10 years.
Critical deadlines
Given the failure of talks between the president and elected officials of both Houses, the compromise could eventually go through further discussion within Congress. This Sunday, "the leaders of the Senate and House have agreed to return to Congress to speak to their groups and discuss the way forward. The conversations will continue all day "has said Jay Carney, spokesman for the president. For now, no new summit meeting is scheduled with Barack Obama, but on the other hand John Boehner also called for an early agreement.If a common ground on removing the ceiling on debt seems likely, no party could only be satisfied with this short term solution, and discussions on the reduction of public spending should be more difficult. One observation that seems to share Timothy Geithner.
On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary said that there would probably agree to a two stages, first raising the debt ceiling and so that an agreement on spending cuts and a second stage of higher taxes and reforms. Whatever the timing adopted, it was also described as "unthinkable" that the United States do not meet their debt obligations.And as Barack Obama, who does not want thorny issue of the debt rose to the surface during the election year ahead, Geithner wants to avert the threat of a default for at least 18 months, but less than 10 days of the deadline of August 2, the time is now very critical.
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Baroin, the new Minister of Economy and Finance, has settled into the chair Thursday's sixth stage of Bercy, vacated by Christine Lagarde, to just under ten months. Ten months during which the presidential campaign in full swing. "In the job, there is an important part of teaching to do with the French on the reforms that have been made over the past four years at Bercy," said a relative of the head of state. Some have indeed been misunderstood – the tax shield has paid the price, others are little known because relatively techniques (such as business tax transformed into territorial economic contribution), some are finally gone unnoticed.
During this period, the records of funds will not be stored in the bottom drawers. The international situation will not leave any breathing space to the new minister.On Sunday takes place in Brussels for an emergency meeting of the Eurogroup to draw the contours of the second plan to provide budget support to Greece. If Baroin, as a former budget minister, has over the fingertips mechanics of public finances, it must now delve into the workings of international finance and meet his European counterparts to earn their trust . The task is difficult. Not only, as he jokes about himself, Baroin limited English proficiency, but more importantly, the aura of Christine Lagarde to the European ministers was such that his replacement will be hard pressed to eclipse. With a perspective view of the presidency of the G20 Finance in October.
Domestically, the schedule looks less busy.The major issues are already tied up (the stimulus of post-crisis reform of the ISF, the consumer credit, the research tax credit, business tax, etc.).. In addition to preparing the macroeconomic framework of the Finance Act 2012 which will be presented in September, is perhaps to give to the operation of the flat state as an owner … "Although the case of Renault now seems settled, President is still far from satisfied with the way some public enterprises are managed, "said a senior official.
Play it safe
Her replacement at the Department of Budget, Valérie Pécresse, for its part will continue efforts to straighten the path of public finances. The public debt increased by 54.9 billion euros in the first quarter, Insee said on Thursday, reaching the end of March 1 646 100 000 000, or 84.5% of GDP.Thursday, the new minister has promised to "stay the course". "These are decisive hours, the European economy is now scrutinized by foreign observers and the voice of France will be more heard that the state will keep its promises," she said.
No question therefore relieve pressure on public spending. The reform of the state, and its corollary, the non-replacement of an official two retiring, will continue. Indeed, Valérie Pécresse arrives at Bercy while the expenditure side of the Budget 2012 has already been decided. 30 401 jobs will be cut and the envelopes of the ministries will fall from 0.11%.
However, the revenue side remains to be determined. France has pledged in Brussels to raise 3 billion specimens in 2012.In addition, many public finance experts parliamentarians, as Gilles Carrez, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, to play advocate caution, cutting up to 6 billion in tax loopholes. The growth figures for the second quarter, known mid-August, will see more clearly and to decide the extent of the effort to do.
On Thursday, Valerie Pécresse was intended optimistic: "The growth is there and we will, hopefully, additional revenue allows us to be ahead of the planning law." A law which aims to reduce the public deficit 4.6% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013.
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»IN PICTURES – The Changing Face of Government Fillon
