Financial markets now include in their forecasts scenarios of "extreme risk" in Europe. Among these include a breakdown of the single currency, an outflow of Greece to the euro, but also larger countries such as Italy or Spain. The widening of spreads between countries in the euro area shows a clear divide between North and South. France is in the middle, but it looks more and more dangerously on the side of vulnerable countries instant payday loan.
The current political developments in key countries of the South do not seem to reassure markets. The departure of Silvio Berlusconi and his replacement as head of government by Mario Monti has not calmed the markets doubt the ability of the new chief executive to impose Italian program of deficit reduction required by the European Commission .
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The government wanted to know the outcome of EU summit Wednesday evening, presented as crucial for the future of the euro area, prior to revise downward its growth forecasts. Despite the success of the meeting of the seventeen member countries of the euro area, which found the night of Wednesday to Thursday an agreement to stem the crisis at the moment on the Old Continent, the head of state n has been recognized that the Thursday night: the economy would not be up to expectations next year.
Until then, Bercy expected a GDP growth of 1.75% in 2012. But since the beginning of summer, the situation has deteriorated considerably. "For the sake of seriousness, we decided to lower our forecast to 1% next year," said Nicolas Sarkozy, who is aligned and the assumption by our German neighbor.And, near the line thickness, on the average forecast of economists (0.9%).
To keep the deficit targets despite this deterioration – and this is the top priority – must be found "6-8000000000" euros in savings or additional tax revenue next year, said Chief of the state.
Nicolas Sarkozy has asked Prime Minister Francois Fillon, with Valérie Pécresse (Budget) and Baroin (Economics), floor of the copy. And this new austerity program will be announced "in ten days," just after the G20 which takes place in Cannes.
What is certain is that "we must spend less on operating and investment to support growth (…).But calling for a tax harmonization with Germany, the president did not rule out the idea of raising the reduced rate (set at 7% across the Rhine at home against 5.5%) or the introduction of an intermediate VAT rate (between 5.5% and 19.6%) for products now subject to a reduced rate (catering, building …)
It announces clearly no "social VAT" – renamed "VAT antidélocalisation" to the UMP – hypothesis was raised in the procession of the tracks in the study. He implicitly endorsed the idea but has returned to the next presidential debate "in a few months."
However, companies should be tapped. Address the tax differential between multinationals and SMEs is a carrier. It is almost assumed that the new austerity plan will include a surcharge of corporate tax targeted at large enterprises.
The news is reassuring. With a large majority, the Bundestag adopted the new rescue plan the Eurozone. If the vote was little doubt that the amplitude of the majority was still uncertain. According to AFP, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has won the support of its majority.
The new rescue plan foresees an expansion of European powers of the fire in the euro area, the Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and increased its capacity from 440 to 780 euros milliarsd. "The German MPs have overwhelmingly demonstrated their sense of responsibility," responded the French Minister for European Affairs, Jean Leonetti, in a statement.
Of 611 votes cast, 523 of 620 deputies voted "for", said the chairman of the meeting Norbert Lammert. Only 85 deputies voted against and three abstaining.As expected, two of the three opposition parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, have made their voices.
More importantly, 315 members of the coalition voted for the building according to the AFP and a Conservative MP quoted by Reuters. Clearly, Merkel would not have needed the votes of the opposition guaranteed high risk personal loans. This was not a foregone conclusion, the majority having spread its divisions, the previous weeks on this subject.
If the Chancellor had failed to gather his troops, the German government would have been seriously destabilized, fueling doubts about the survival of the coalition. Angela Merkel would have indeed been "made in Germany as a loser," said Holger Schmieding, of Berenberg Bank.
Germany is the eleventh country to approve the reform of the rescue plan initially set up in 2010 to assist countries in the euro area in need.Berlin, because of its predominant economic weight in Europe, will be the first contributor.
The vote of the Bundestag is the first in a series of three crucial. In the coming weeks, he will speak on a second plan of aid to Greece and early 2012, on a permanent rescue mechanism (MES) to succeed the EFSF.
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How long the French banks will they resist the attacks of which they are the target market? BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole is in the eye of the storm: their actions have lost between 50% and 55% of their value in three months! This distrust, more violent and against many of their European competitors has two main explanations. On the one hand, French banks are exposed to the vulnerable countries of Europe device (Greece, Spain, Italy …) they hold a large stock of debt of state and they often have subsidiaries. Moreover, their model "universal" makes them more dependent than the average market financing. However, funding has become, if not rare, at least very expensive.
In that context very high voltage, a parade could be a battle plan based on that 2008.The rumors for weeks on a recapitalization by the state of all French banks. The Sunday Journal Sunday evoked an injection of 10 or 15 billion euros. At its off the plane from Washington, the Minister of Economy, French Baroin furiously opposed to "the most categorical denial." Same reaction at the Elysee and the Bank of France. Such an operation would be "useless, or even against-productive," said a source familiar with the matter. For now, anyway, "banks do not want it, they are not in a logic of solidarity, but prefer to play their own cards." The "special case" of Franco-Belgian Dexia, in the words of the governor of the Banque de France, is the subject of specific thoughts.Started in late 2008, the restructuring could involve an alliance with Caisse des Depots et La Banque Postale in the field of financing local authorities (our editions of September 23), but without dismantling or modification of the shareholders, Dexia said.
Maintain and adapt
Rather than a recapitalization, institutions such as the authorities prefer to place a battle plan: take and adapt. Friday, Bloomberg TV, the governor of the Banque de France, Christian Noyer, reiterated his confidence in the strength of French institutions. However, it has raised its requirements: all French banks will have to comply, from 1 January 2013, new prudential regulations known as "Basel 3", that is to say six years ahead of schedule. The effort required is considerable.All things being equal, the transition to Basel 3 means a financial institution that it should, about four times its equity. In fact, banks will reduce the volume and level of risk of their assets and their businesses, so that the capitalization is less effort. The banked profits and payment of stock dividends must achieve the required level. For three years, the sector in France has already accumulated 50 billion euros of additional capital. The line of defense erected by the European Central Bank, whose windows are wide open cash to banks in the euro zone, is also a key element of the device.
"But we're not crazy," says a source familiar with the matter. The possibilities of slippage are many, starting with one that Greece would go bankrupt.Better to be prepared for any eventuality and have a plan B shares at any time, ideally in a European context. Tools that were used by the state in 2008 to recapitalize banks and guarantee their loans have not been dismantled, they can return to duty at any time.
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The Fed has launched "Operation Twist" on Wednesday. Following a two-day extraordinary meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank announced its intention to sell by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills maturity of three years or less, to buy an equivalent amount of maturity from six to 30 years.
This mechanism, which takes its name from the famous dance that was all the rage in the 1960s, had just been used for the last time in 1961. Its objective is to reduce interest rates in the long run to give a boost to business investment and the demand for housing loans, which use these rates as reference.
The Fed, however, chose not to touch interest rates that determine the short-term rates. They remain between 0% and 0.25%.And they will remain at historically low levels until mid-2013, said a statement.
Market disappointment
In addition to this twist, and in order to support the mortgage market, the Fed will also buy real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio. For this, it will continue to reinvest the securities-backed real estate it owns as they fall due. But the FOMC said, instead of buying Treasury bonds as it did previously, she will buy securities backed by mortgage-agency mortgage refinancing para as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
This double operation shows that the Federal Reserve, the economy remains very depressed. The Fed also believes that global economic growth will remain slow.Conclusions that are similar to those of the IMF, which announced Tuesday it had seen very sharp fall in its growth forecast for the U.S., in theory at a level insufficient to expect a decline in the unemployment rate, which remains very high to 9.1%.
On Wall Street, where the launch of Operation Twist was widely anticipated, the operators retain the gloomy perspective of the Central Bank on the economy. Shortly after the news release of the Fed, the Dow Jones was digging his losses and gave up 1.10% at 11,283 points.
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Car manufacturers ultra-luxurious living on another planet. The downside risks, of concern to general groups, do not seem to disturb them. Concessions in the Ferrari, "consumers are not worried about a recession. The last I saw did not look desperate, "said Sergio Marchionne, the CEO of Fiat, at the Frankfurt Motor Show.
The Prancing Horse brand also provides for a new record this year by selling 7,000 cars, against 6,570 last year. Ferrari is also counting on a profit before tax "significant", following an increase of 23% in 2010 to 302 million euros. "I'm not worried because we have quality, exclusivity, a strong brand and innovative technology," said its president, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo.
It is the only one to be extremely confident.Rolls-Royce (BMW Group), whose boss, Torsten Mueller-Oetvoes, said he was "optimistic" about prospects for its niche, also wants to exceed its historical performance of last year (2711 cars). The luxury brand will invest 11.4 million euros to expand its plant in Goodwood English and plans to increase its network from 85 to 100 outlets.
Buyers richer
Sales of the major European luxury brands (Maserati, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin) are expected to jump 19% this year to 28,100 vehicles, and increase by 13% in 2012, according to a study by IHS Automotive no checking account payday advance. "The rich are becoming richer, and the number of millionaires in emerging and growing. It is a very positive trend "for specialists in this niche, says Erich Hauser, an analyst at Credit Suisse agency quoted Bloomberg.For him, "should things go really bad" for the champions of this market find themselves in difficulty.
The ultra-premium segment should be able to pass through an economic downturn better than in the previous crisis, which saw sales of certain brands to collapse, says the CEO of Rolls-Royce. "This market is growing steadily since its low point in 2009" but "we are aware that there are risks," acknowledges, however, Stephan Winkelmann, Lamborghini's boss. But for now, the Italian brand of the Volkswagen group does not seem to fear a decline in the purchasing power of its wealthy clients. It will produce 20 Sesto Elemento for early 2013. Their price: 1.6 million euro.
Societe Generale against attack. According to information from Figaro, the bank has launched a summons for defamation against the British tabloid Mail on Sunday. The Sunday newspaper had published an article on August 7 with Societe Generale "at the brink of bankruptcy after terrible losses from its exposure to the Greek debt." This article was the catalyst for the spread of rumors and scare many of the French bank, throughout the months of August and since the beginning. With the key, a downward spiral of its share price.
After obtaining an immediate apology from the British publication, the Company generally does it not stop there. She wrote, according to our sources, from August 18, by law, a letter of assignment to the Mail on Sunday, saying she has suffered damages and seeking compensation instant payday loan lenders.The next day, the newspaper responded by acknowledging his mistakes and offered to pay 1000 pounds to a charity. On 1 September, the French bank has sent a second letter, noting that the magazine acknowledged its mistakes and requesting payment, this time a million pounds to the "charity" of choice. Last week, the tabloid merely replicate that he would study the issue.
Both parties are there. If the Mail on Sunday does not comply, according to our sources, the Company generally will rise to the second phase of its assignment by entering a London court.
The new tone decidedly anti-jargon adopted by South Radio when he arrived in Paris on the air is controversial. The High Council of Audiovisual (CSA) has remained the station for anti-Semitic statements in the release of Michel and Eric Mazet Cardoze 16 hours to 18 hours. Eric Mazet was laid off by the radio. Robert Ménard, who hosts the morning show with a phone-called "free-Ménard," is also under fire because the auditors have made racist remarks on his show. How far can we go with freedom of expression? "That's the difficulty. Simply South Radio does not do the same as the others. If today half the French do not trust the media because they feel that journalists are cut off from them. This is a problem of democracy.How to talk about people, their worries, their fears, even if they are poorly made, do not pass in the media, "said he. Should we let freedom provided to foul words? Racist and antisemitic fall under criminal law. "That is why in my show, I immediately put a stop saying we will not see it at home. Eric Mazet made a stupid, clumsy as it did not have the right spread. But that does not mean an anti-Semite. The challenge of Sud Radio, is not to repeat what all the major radio stations, that is to say information among themselves. You know, to combat racism and antisemitism, there is the French method is to prohibit all about. But another method is practiced by other democratic countries like the United States with the First Amendment.It is to say, we will give expression to views reprehensible, and, opposite, there are journalists who disagree with this statement. But I want to meet up to walk to these comments. The problem is that France, when you do this, it is pointed to by all sorts of associations "
After the notice of the CSA, Sud Radio Will it continue these programs free antenna or correct it? "We will continue to freedom of expression and we will enforce the law as I am working every morning easy payday loans. The CSA was entered on August 17 with a complaint about anti-Semitic words classified as Jean-Michel Larqué (on RMC, ed.) I do not feel that the CSA has already studied the issue. But with South Radio, 48 hours, it was folded. There are two weights, two measures. There are three of the band: RMC, Europe 1 and RTL that can be abstracted from the law, and small as Radio South who are beaten up.I think we should change the stupid laws in France that does not solve the problems of racism and antisemitism. For 25 years I say. In France, freedom of the press is corseted by laws unnecessary. "
The model of Robert Ménard is it the Fox News? "In the U.S., radio is a thousand times freer because it does not have this problem of law. In South Radio, we tried to invent something. "
With his arrival in Paris, Sud Radio plays big economically. That's why the station has taken as many risks. But if it increases the skids, the CSA may punish by removing the frequency Paris. Moreover, the allocation of this frequency has been challenged by RMC, Europe 1 and RTL. "It's been 25 years that I defend freedom of expression. I paid professionally. With RTL, this is wrong.I went on Sud Radio because it gave me a freedom that I have anywhere else. If this changes, I will not stay. I think, even if it bothers you, what is done in South Radio is a work of public safety. Finally, we give voice to the people. It serves no purpose to prohibit, we must fight. This is what I do every morning, telling listeners: this is not acceptable but I'll answer. "
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Investors in the Paris Bourse are enthusiastic on Monday afternoon. By 1530, the Cac 40 gained 3.15% to 3112 points. The index has grown steadily since opening in the red. The benchmark index of the Bourse de Paris has in fact started the session down 0.85% below 3000 points. But the trend was quickly reversed after a quarter hour rating. Clawing and point by point, the Cac 40 already displayed an increase of 1.46% in mid-session.
The index then continued its rise this afternoon. It seems not only able to keep the 3000 points, but maybe even finish above 3100 points.
What comfort to investors who last week saw the Cac 40 lost almost 7% in five days.
Elsewhere in Europe, the same trend has occurred. In London, the FTSE 100 gained 2.69% to now 5176 points.In Frankfurt, the DAX 1.89% 30 allows itself to 5583 points. And Italy, the FTSE MIB ahead even of 4.08% at 15,198 points.
The hope of change in Libya brings dynamism
Investors are eager to hear the speech of the U.S. Federal Reserve Friday, which should present the details of a new plan of monetary easing to support the U.S. economy. But in anticipation of this event, the operators have their eyes riveted to Libya where the rebels have entered in Tripoli. If pro-Gaddafi still resisting in the capital, rebel fighters have reached the Green Square, symbol of the regime. The fate of Colonel Gaddafi's head of oil-producing country seems uncertain.Seif al-Islam, presented in the past as the future successor of his father, was arrested.
The prospect of regime change boosts the price of crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), where a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 83.58 dollars to 15 hours, up of $ 1.32 from Friday.
Despite this enthusiasm, concerns remain about the global economic environment. The United States fears most concentrated with the publication of indicators increasingly mixed. This weekend, President Barack Obama admitted that his country was experiencing "a difficult, frightening recession." This should not reassure. He also accused the Congress to halt the reforms he wants to put in place to revive the economy.For his part, Vice President Joe Biden tried to reassure global stock markets and especially the Chinese, the first creditor of Americans saying the country would "never" by default.
Side the euro area, the problems of sovereign debt persist. As the political stalemate. Sunday, the German government has stepped up interventions in the media to reaffirm its opposition to European obligations, yet solution desired by the markets. "The Eurobonds are quite the wrong response to the crisis of the moment.They would lead us to a union of debt and not a union of stability, "said Chancellor Angela Merkel who judges the cost of this mechanism is too high for the economy of his country payday loans guaranteed no fax.
Several statistics to follow this week
Germany has lowered its forecast of budget deficit to 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011, in a monthly report of the Ministry of Finance released Monday.
Growth is slowing for the fourth consecutive quarter in rich countries, displayed in 0.2% from April to June compared with the previous three months, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)."The gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD area slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter of 2011, against 0.3% last quarter," said the organization in a statement Monday.
But investors expect a battery of statistics in the rest of the week including the manufacturing PMI for the euro area (Tuesday), the German IFO index (Wednesday), the weekly jobless claims in the U.S. (Thursday). Wednesday will be marked in France by the presentation of new conservation measures for the country to retain investor confidence and the "triple A".
Friday will be the busiest day with the second reading of U.S. GDP in the second quarter and the index of consumer sentiment.
As for currencies, the euro rose slightly against the greenback.The single currency is worth 1.4419 dollars this morning.
Banks and Total are displayed in the list of the values up
Banking
The AMF may decide Friday, after the close of European stock exchanges, to renew its ban on short selling on financial stocks, but this time for three months. The sector also bounced unevenly on Monday after sharp declines last week, Credit Agricole gained 2.76% this morning before falling back slightly in mid-session (-0.29% to 6.10 euros).BNP Paribas gained 0.95% to 33.06 euros, however Natixis crumbles from 0.76% to 2.86 euros, and Axa, from 0.34% to 10.24 euros.
For his part, Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of Societe Generale (1.34% to 21.15 euros), said Sunday that the nervousness that penalizes banks Scholarships could last "at least until early November."
Paris airport: + 0.73% to 54.17 euros
ADP has registered a record passenger traffic in July, with 8.9 million passengers, an increase of 4.6% over the same period in 2010.
France Telecom (1.04% to 12.68 euros), Vivendi (0.69% to 15.39 euros), Bouygues (0.97% to 21.92 euros) Iliad (1.39% to 80.70 euros)
Some operators are preparing for the end of unlimited Internet access in homes for some clients.
Total: + 3.36% to 33.065 euros
Leading the CAC 40, the title has hopes of a quick change of regime in Libya that would allow a reopening of the country's oil installations.
Like their colleagues in Asia, investors should demonstrate Parisian little enthusiasm on Friday. The CAC 40 futures contract on a misaligned (0.06%) to 8:30, suggesting an opening decline.
The market's attention will focus on the evolution of the European agenda to discuss aid to Greece and parliamentary discussions slipping in the United States, about raising the debt ceiling. After Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, the U.S. President, Barack Obama has assured last night that "the time for decisions has come."Barack Obama will hold a press conference to take stock of the subject at 17 hours, Paris time.
A very technical session for
The news should be sparse on the side of the values on Friday, but the session promises to be lively because of the expiration today of a battery of forward contracts.
Investors remain concentrated in Paris after the close for 18 hours to read the results of resistance testing in the European banking sector. Among the 91 banks assessed in connection with these third annual stress tests, are the French BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Natixis faxless pay day loans.
The automotive sector will also be in order on Friday, after the presentation of the number of registrations in Europe in June, which shows a decrease of 8.1% over one year.Over the first half, the market decline is limited to 2.1% with 7.12 million passenger vehicles registered.
The gold on top, the euro remains strong
Values could be exporting to the death, after a further rise of the euro, which traded this morning, 1.4166 dollars, against 1.4141 dollars last night, while the dollar was stable against the yen. The euro is also strengthening against the Japanese currency at 112.15 yen.
In the current environment of heightened uncertainty about the public debt in Europe and the United States, gold is looking for: the metal-King reached a new record yesterday to 1594.45 dollars. It flows back slightly this morning.
Similarly, relaxation can be observed on the future of Brent North Sea (-0.22% to 116.09 dollars per barrel). In contrast, light crude gained sweed 0.24% to 95.92 dollars a barrel.
