What the rating agencies think of the debt of France
Rating agencies have a great influence on economic policy Bercy. Baroin, the budget minister, has himself acknowledged Sunday. And what about Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch of the situation in France? Will they be inclined to leave him in the coming months, the privilege of his "Triple A, the highest mark possible, attributed to a very small country?
It depends, just, future government decisions. France has suffered less from the crisis than other countries in the euro area, greet agencies. The state has dampened with crisis recovery plan and welfare. The price: a high public deficit (7.5%), which must now reduce the risk of blowing up the already high public debt.
"Such imbalances require a recovery result of public finances, especially on the expenditure side, argue analysts from Standard & Poor's said in its latest report on France from July 2009. They said the debt should represent 90% of gross domestic product in 2011, against 78% today.
The government has already announced a freeze on public finances in late May, while spending on social security should continue to increase, says essentially Moody's in his March report, "which should result in an increase of 1% per year expenditure total " make quick cash. An objective "not particularly ambitious," says the agency, but nevertheless "should be difficult to take, given the unsuccessful efforts to control spending in the past."
"High levels of taxation"
Rating agencies do not seem to bear the greatest confidence in France, this country has two weaknesses, "the high level of taxation, which makes it difficult for future increases in taxes [to reduce the deficit, Ed] and expenditure rigidity, "is always Moody's. A suspicion reinforced by the presidential election of 2012, which could cause "potential expenditure," said Standard & Poor's.
The Fitch welcomes, however, "the intensification of social dialogue on public finance as an important step towards reversing the broad deficit" in a commentary published on May 28 She also applauded "the change in attitude of the government that understood the importance and urgency of fiscal adjustment."
Time is running out there? In the short term, "triple A in France is not in danger," wrote Moody's, often the last of three agencies to scale down its rating. Still, the separation between the country of degradation of the note is reduced "relentlessly," she says. At the rate of excavation of the debt.
